My situational spots were just 2-3 last week with some tough end-of-game variance costing us with Houston and Northwestern. I thought the spots were good and our teams played well for a good majority of these games, but sometimes its not enough.
I'm going to hone in on the following spots this week as we continue to seek betting opportunities.
So, here's college basketball predictions and picks, including eight NCAAB situational spots to target.
- Last Week: 2-3 | 8-7 Overall
Akron vs. Western Michigan
We know about the offensive prowess the Zips have displayed with Tavari Johnson, Amani Lyles and Evan Mahaffey being able to score 20 points on any given night, but Akron also leads the MAC in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage surrendered on that end of the floor.
In its last four conference road games, Akron has held its opponents to 67 points or less in every one of them, and I would expect Akron to be fully locked in on the defensive end in this game.
Western Michigan lost by 15 in the first matchup between these two, but the Broncos actually scored 51 first-half points and led by 14 points at one point. Because of that, Akron is unlikely to overlook Western Michigan — which is equipped with the worst defense in a conference filled with bad defenses — in this game.
The Broncos are also in a rivalry sandwich spot. Western Michigan just defeated Eastern Michigan on the road on Saturday and hits the road to face Central Michigan next.
I expect Akron to be wide-eyed and ready to go in this one, especially given how the first meeting played out. So, I'll seek to bet the Zips laying 14 or less here.
Pick: Akron -13.5
UIC vs. Evansville
The best kept secret in the Missouri Valley Conference has been the surge we've seen from UIC over the last six weeks.
Winners of 10 of its last 12 games, UIC has started to peak at the right time and should have an opportunity to close out the regular season in strong fashion.
These games down the stretch are critical for seeding purposes for the conference tournament, where UIC is battling for a potential two-seed in “Arch-Madness."
The first test for the Flames will be a trip to Evansville for a bout against the Purple Aces.
In the first meeting, the Flames' defense suffocated the Aces, forcing 19 turnovers that led to 29 UIC points.
The Flames were excellent in transition defensively, allowing just two fastbreak points in the first meeting. Despite a poor overall shooting effort, UIC dominated from start to finish.
UIC has been the best offensive rebounding team in the conference, and it collected 10 offensive boards in the first meeting, which resulted in 13 second-chance points.
I expect UIC to win the battle on the offensive and defensive glass, and for its high-pressure defense — which has ramped up the intensity over the last six weeks — to be the difference.
This should be a double-digit road win for UIC, so if we're laying 8.5 or better, Ill seek to play the Flames.
Pick: UIC ATS (-8.5 or Better)
UT Martin vs. Little Rock
UT Martin will play its fourth game in seven days after a Tuesday affair with SE Missouri State. That means the Skyhawks have a quick turnaround to Little Rock for this Thursday duel.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a slow start — similar to how the first matchup played out between these two teams. The Skyhawks defeated the Trojans 55-52 in that one, and it was Little Rock's best defensive performance of the season.
This venue (Jack Stephens Center) is one the Skyhawks have struggled in, losing the last three meetings.
Little Rock has played better defensively of late and will be able to force some turnovers against the Skyhawks, who rank 358th in offensive turnover percentage nationally.
As long as we can avoid wild shooting variance from deep, this should stay under.
Pick: Under Total Points (135.5 or Better)
Charleston vs. NC A&T
Charleston has really struggled offensively since second-leading scorer Connor Hickman was ruled ineligible for the remainder of this season. The Cougars have throttled back its operating tempo in the process, which I'm not sure the books have adjusted appropriately to.
Charleston has scored 64, 62 and 66 points in its three games since a February 5 meeting with NC A&T, but the Cougars do have a defense that ranks top-five in the CAA in overall efficiency, effective field goal percentage and free-throw rate.
NC A&T has one of the worst offenses in the CAA, and I would figure the Aggies would struggle to get good looks down low. NC A&T is going to be methodical on offense and won't rely on deep 3-point shots, so we should see long offensive possessions, and what I believe to be empty trips on the offensive end.
I'm going to look toward the under.
Pick: Under Total Points (147.5 or Better)
Southern Illinois vs. Northern Iowa
This is a spot for Northern Iowa to avenge an earlier loss against Southern Illinois, a game where the Panthers shot very poorly. Northern Iowa made just four 3-point shots and was just 8-of-13 from the foul line.
Tristan Smith has been such a bright spot for Northern Iowa since coming back from injury, and the offense has been clicking while scoring 80 or more points in three straight games.
The Panthers have won five of seven games down the stretch and still have an outside chance at a top-four seed in the Missouri Valley Tournament.
I expect the Panthers to defend home court against Southern Illinois, as it has the last five years.
I'll seek to bet Northern Iowa laying six or less here.
Pick: Northern Iowa ATS (-6 or Better)
NCAAB Situational Quick-Hitters
Buffalo ATS (-8.5) vs. Northern Illinois
Tuesday, Feb. 17 | 6:30 p.m. ET
Buffalo has been very competitive in the MAC despite not registering a ton of wins in league play. The Bulls played very competitively against Kent State, Akron, UMass, Ohio and Miami (OH) at home, and now square off against the worst offensive team in the conference.
Buffalo should force some turnovers — which will lead to run outs — and I don't trust Northern Illinois to knock down shots on the road.
Northern Illinois hasn't won a conference road game all season, and I could see this one getting ugly as the Huskies endure another lost season in DeKalb.
Northern Illinois just lost at Central Michigan by 40.
Bradley (Projected +2.5) @ Valparaiso
Wednesday, Feb. 18 | 7 p.m. ET
Bradley is a projected underdog at Valpo, but the Braves have played really well lately, winning four of their last five games.
The offense is playing much better, as the Braves knocked down 17 triples against Belmont and nine against Southern Illinois.
I'm not confident that Valparaiso will be efficient enough offensively to keep up. The Beacons rank 332nd in offensive field goal percentage and 343rd nationally.
Cal Poly vs. Hawaii (Over 156 or Better)
Thursday, Feb. 19 | 11:59 p.m. ET
This is a play predicated on pace and a heavy whistle from the referee crew, something we're accustomed to seeing in Hawaii games on the island.
Hawaii usually shoots 25-30 free throws in its home games, and with an up-tempo pace expected, we could be in for a massive foul fest in this Big West tilt.
The first matchup between these two saw Hawaii win 86-66 in a game that had very poor shooting on both sides.
I think we see a game played in the 160s here.
