The Dayton Flyers take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Cincinnati is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -320. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here’s my Dayton vs. Cincinnati prediction and college basketball picks for November 11, 2025.
Dayton vs Cincinnati Prediction
My Pick: Under 146.5 (Play to 143)
My Dayton vs Cincinnati best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Dayton vs. Cincinnati Odds
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | +255 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
- Dayton vs Cincinnati spread: Cincinnati -6.5
- Dayton vs Cincinnati over/under: 146.5 points
- Dayton vs Cincinnati moneyline: Dayton +255, Cincinnati -320
Dayton vs Cincinnati College Basketball Betting Preview
Dayton Basketball
The Flyers enter this major in-state showdown with a clean 2-0 record. It's not all sunshine and rainbows, though. The Flyers barely escaped a buy game against UMBC on Saturday, edging the Retrievers 77-71. That was a two-point game with a minute left, and Dayton was clearly not at its sharpest.
The best version of these Flyers uses budding star center Amael L’Etang as a queen on the chessboard, moving him around as a perimeter shooter or interior scorer.
Javon Bennett and De’Shayne Montgomery provide two complementary playmaking threats in the backcourt.
Wing transfers Jordan Derkack and Keonte Jones are do-it-all types who make massive impacts on the defensive end.
UMBC hurt Dayton from beyond the arc, sinking 11 triples to offset some turnover issues. Having L’Etang around the rim — plus highly switchable pieces in Jones, Derkack, Montgomery and Jaiun Simon — means that opponents almost have to beat Dayton over the top.
One area where Grant’s teams have always excelled is elongating the opponent’s possessions. Over the last four years, Dayton has ranked 299th, 346th, 348th and 338th in average possession length on defense, per KenPom.
That demonstrates how tough it is to get an easy early look against the Flyers, and the shot clock often becomes an additional defender.
This quality has held true to start the 2025-26 season, as typically frenetic UMBC had to play a half-court game.
Cincinnati Basketball
Wes Miller and Cincinnati welcome Dayton to town in need of a big win. The Bearcats have yet to make the NCAA Tournament in Miller’s first four years, and with limited chances to make an impression prior to Big 12 play commencing, knocking off an in-state foe of Dayton’s caliber would be a great way to build momentum.
Miller hopes an overhaul on the offensive end is the key to ending the Big Dance drought.
To go with returning lead guard Day Day Thomas, Miller added big-time shooters in Kerr Kriisa and Jordi Rodriguez, plus a versatile scoring wing in touted freshman Shon Abaev.
The Bearcats also brought in frontcourt pieces that can stretch the court in 7-foot-2 center Moustapha Thiam and 6-foot-11 forward Baba Miller. The raw materials are here.
Miller also hired Kelly Peters as a special assistant to refine the X’s and O’s. That's seemingly led to a heavy foot on the gas pedal, with Cincinnati ranking 14th nationally in shortest average possession length, per KenPom. It’s early, but that signals a notable change.
Granted, those numbers come from two buy games against inferior foes in Western Carolina and Georgia State. The Bearcats didn't even crack 1.0 points per possession against Georgia State, an alarming failure considering the changes made on the roster and the sideline.
At their core, though, the Bearcats are a defense-first unit. Thiam and Miller form an imposing duo around the rim, and rookie Tyler McKinley has shown well on that end in place of the injured Jalen Haynes.
The point guard tandem of Thomas and Keyshuan Tillery adds plenty of ball pressure, and as Sencire Harris gets healthier, he'll reassert himself as one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the country.
Dayton vs. Cincinnati Betting Analysis
This is a major step up in competition for both teams. Both Dayton and Cincinnati opened the season with two buy games, and they followed a similar track: easy blowout in the opener, much more lackadaisical in the second contest.
This meeting will tell us a lot about both squads.
Pace is going to be a key piece to monitor. Miller’s Bearcats have clearly made a point to push the ball more to start the season, hunting transition opportunities.
But against Dayton’s disciplined defense, those opportunities could be few and far between.
I anticipate this one being played much more in the half-court than either of Cincinnati’s first two games (80 and 75 possessions).
If that's indeed the case, then the under has real appeal here. It may not be as simple as last year, when Cincy topped Dayton, 66-59, in a 64-possession brawl.
However, given the sturdiness of both defenses, the sticker shock of playing far more athletic opponents than either team faced in the opener, and my assessment of the pace, this angle is one I need to support.
I would bet the under down to 143 points.
My Pick: Under 146.5 (Play to 143)
