The Louisville Cardinals take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for January 26, 2026.
Louisville vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Louisville +7.5 | Louisville ML
My Louisville vs Duke best bet is on the Cardinals to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs. Duke Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
- Louisville vs Duke spread: Duke -7.5
- Louisville vs Duke over/under: 157.5 points
- Louisville vs Duke moneyline: Louisville +240, Duke -300
Louisville vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Louisville Basketball
After a scorching start to its 2026 campaign, Pat Kelsey’s bunch has hit some speed bumps along the way as we enter the heart of a stacked ACC schedule.
Star point guard Mikel Brown Jr. — who many scouts project as a top-five selection in the 2026 NBA Draft — has been dealing with a lower-back injury, resulting in the freshman missing eight consecutive contests for the Cardinals.
After a 9-1 start to the season, Louisville lost five of its next eight games.
Kelsey received great news this past Saturday, though, as the Cardinals' superstar was finally cleared to return to action for a Louisville team desperate for offensive production.
While former Xavier guard Ryan Conwell has played extremely well in Brown's absence, it became clear that Louisville was a different team with the future NBA prospect running the offense.
Coming off a much-needed victory over Virginia Tech at the KFC Yum! Center, the Cardinals now head back on the road to Durham in what will surely be their most difficult matchup of the 2026 season.
Duke Basketball
In Jon Scheyer’s fourth season as Duke head coach, the former Blue Devil has led his bunch to a spectacular 18-1 start, quickly cementing themselves as one of the best teams in the country.
For a 2025 team that had national title aspirations behind a generational talent in now–Dallas Maverick Cooper Flagg, Duke suffered a heartbreaking Elite Eight defeat at the hands of Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars, blowing a seven-point lead in the final 35 seconds of the game.
While that Elite Eight exit was certainly disappointing for Scheyer in his third year at the helm, he made significant progress in the offseason, landing the No. 3 prospect in the 2025 class — Cameron Boozer, the son of former Blue Devil Carlos Boozer.
Duke also secured his twin brother, Cayden, another highly touted five-star prospect.
For a team that lost one of the most talented college basketball players in decades in Flagg, the 6-foot-9 freshman forward Boozer has quickly picked up the slack, averaging over 23 points per game along with 10 rebounds through his first 19 games.
In what is one of the most talented NBA draft classes in recent memory, Boozer is widely viewed as a lock to become a top-three selection in 2026, alongside Kansas star Darryn Peterson and BYU forward AJ Dybansta.
Along with 6-foot-11 powerhouse Patrick Ngongba II, the Blue Devil frontcourt is among the best in college basketball on both ends of the floor. Duke ranks inside the top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
Finding open looks in the paint has been a nightmare for opposing forwards, as both Boozer and Ngongba are excellent rim protectors.
At the point, 6-foot-6 sophomore guard Isaiah Evans orchestrates a Blue Devil offense that’s averaging over 85 points per game through the first 19 contests. Evans has also established himself as a strong two-way player, averaging just under 15 points per game while dishing out more than three assists.
Junior guard Caleb Foster rounds out a very talented Duke backcourt.
Louisville vs. Duke Betting Analysis
Monday night’s matchup between fellow ACC foes will be must-watch television, as Louisville looks to get back on track while Scheyer’s Blue Devils continue their quest for another No. 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
While Duke won by double digits on the road at Louisville in the teams’ first matchup in early January, the Cardinals were without one of the best players in the country, Brown.
If Louisville is to complete its revenge tour on Monday night, it'll start on the defensive end of the floor with junior center Sananda Fru.
The 6-foot-11 German has been spectacular defensively and has largely held together a Cardinals unit that ranks just outside the top 40 nationally in defensive efficiency.
The majority of Duke’s offensive production comes inside the lane, where Boozer has been an absolute menace. However, the return of Louisville’s 6-foot-5 freshman guard should also make a substantial impact on Kelsey’s defense.
The Blue Devils have undeniably been one of the best teams in college basketball through the first 20 games of the season. However, their lone loss came at the hands of a Texas Tech defense featuring JT Toppin — a big who could match Boozer’s athleticism.
In that game, Boozer was outworked on the glass, grabbing eight rebounds compared to Toppin’s 10.
I think Fru is up to the task in a marquee defensive matchup against the Duke freshman. Like Toppin, if Fru can play elite interior defense while staying out of foul trouble, Louisville’s sixth-ranked offense should be able to match Duke’s firepower and keep this game competitive for the full 40 minutes.
Scheyer’s offense holds a clear edge in the paint, but at full strength, Louisville arguably boasts the best backcourt in the country in Brown and Conwell.
The Cameron Crazies should succeed in creating a hectic environment at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but with the return of Louisville’s star freshman, I view Kelsey’s Cardinals as a legitimate national title contender.
In what should be an extremely challenging ACC road matchup, I believe Duke will have its hands full containing the athleticism and 3-point shooting of Louisville’s guards. While the Blue Devils have been stout defensively, they’ve had far more success protecting the rim than limiting opponents from beyond the arc.
Louisville’s offense lives and dies by the 3-point, with nearly half of its field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. If the Cardinals are able to convert from deep, this should be a tightly contested matchup on Monday night.
Given the return of Brown., I’m comfortable backing Louisville while getting multiple points against a Duke team that’s likely to face some regression as it navigates a brutal ACC schedule.
I love Louisville in this spot getting 7.5 points, and I'm willing to take a flier on the Cardinals ML as well. This is a team that has legit national champion upside with Brown back in the lineup.
My Pick: Louisville +7.5 | Louisville ML
