The McNeese State Cowboys take on the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks in Lake Charles, Louisiana, in the Southland Championship Final. Tip-off is set for 5:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN2.
McNeese State is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 136 points.
Here are my McNeese State vs. SFA predictions and college basketball picks for March 11, 2026.
McNeese State vs SFA Prediction
My Pick: SFA ML
My McNeese State vs SFA best bet is on Stephen F. Austin to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
McNeese State vs. SFA Odds
| McNeese St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 136 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| SFA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 136 -110o / -110u | +100 |
McNeese State vs SFA Betting Preview
McNeese St Basketball
If you like intense, relentless pressure, McNeese State Cowboys men's basketball is the team to watch.
Bill Armstrong will have his Cowboys pressure for a full 40. That's why they lead the country with a 24.8% defensive turnover rate.
The athleticism and long arms of the McNeese wings also help limit teams to 49% shooting inside the arc.
Having the 50th-best defense in the country as a Southland team is incredible. But the Cowboys could be even better if they were even half-decent on the glass. The pressure from McNeese and the lack of interior length allow opponents to grab 34% of their misses.
The Cowboys have multiple players averaging six-plus points per game. Larry Johnson, the savior of the semifinal win, is the head of the offensive snake. He's not much of a shooter, but he's a freak athlete who loves to drive. Tyshawn Archie is the team's best shooter, averaging 14 points per game.
A good chunk of the McNeese offense comes from the turnovers it forces. I'd be concerned if I backed the Cowboys and they had to operate in the half-court. They shoot just 31% from deep, and the rim-protection from SFA could cut off some of McNeese's driving lanes.
SFA Basketball
Top-seeded Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks men's basketball had to battle back from a nine-point deficit with 17 minutes left to beat Texas A&M-CC on a buzzer-beating put-back layup.
The Lumberjacks took just two losses in Southland play. One was a road game against McNeese State, and the other was a stunning loss to New Orleans.
First-year head coach Matt Braeuer has brought a real toughness and defensive identity to SFA. The Lumberjacks are approaching the top 75 in defensive efficiency, currently at 76th. They hold teams to 49% shooting from 2-point range and 29% from downtown.
Another huge strength of Braeuer's squad is rebounding. The shot-volume battle usually winds up in SFA's favor, as it grabs offensive rebounds 34% of the time and limits teams to a 28% offensive rebound rate.
Keep an eye on Jerald Colonel. He starts at the five for Stephen F. Austin and leads the team with 2.2 blocks and 7.5 rebounds per game — consummate glue guy.
Keon Thompson is the go-to guy for SFA. He leads the team with 18.1 points per game while adding four rebounds and assists per game.
If the Lumberjacks win, they'll likely need to shoot it well. Thompson loves dishing to Lateef Patrick, Narit Chitokavanic, and Kam Burton, who all shoot well from deep.
McNeese State vs. SFA Betting Analysis
The best thing in SFA's favor? Fresh legs.
McNeese State just played a 55-minute game. Garwey Dual and Javohn Garcia both played 49 minutes, while Larry Johnson played 40.
That's something Stephen F. Austin is well-equipped to exploit.
With fresher legs and a good schematic matchup, I'll take SFA on the ML.
My Pick: SFA ML
