The Michigan Wolverines take on the Duke Blue Devils in Washington, DC. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Michigan is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2026.
Michigan vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Michigan ML -150
My Michigan vs Duke best bet is on the Wolverines to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs. Duke Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
- Michigan vs Duke spread: Michigan -2.5
- Michigan vs Duke over/under: 148.5 points
- Michigan vs Duke moneyline: Michigan -150, Duke +125
Michigan vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
Michigan enters the game with a 25-1 overall record, having rattled off 11 straight victories, one of which included a dominant road win over Purdue earlier this week.
Dusty May is making a massive impact in just his second season in Ann Arbor, having previously led FAU to a Final Four appearance in 2023.
After suffering a close Sweet 16 defeat to top-ranked Auburn in 2025, May’s Wolverines have Final Four aspirations in 2025-26.
Michigan’s roster boasts a ton of experience and athleticism from top to bottom. UAB transfer forward Yaxel Lendeborg leads the way for a Wolverines offense that's scoring over 90 points per game. The former Blazer excels on both ends of the floor and is posting 15-point, eight-rebound averages.
Alongside Lendeborg in May’s frontcourt, 6-foot-9 forward Morez Johnson Jr. is also having a phenomenal season, scoring over 13 points per contest. The sophomore has been one of the most efficient forwards nationally, converting on nearly 70% of his field goal attempts (fourth in the country).
The two Wolverines forwards have superb athleticism for their size and consistently pose a matchup nightmare for defenses, even in a Big Ten featuring a number of teams with a ton of size in the frontcourt.
Elliot Cadeau runs point for an offense that operates like a well-oiled machine. While the former Tar Heel hasn't been a great scorer this season, Cadeau is very crafty with the ball in his hands and is posting nearly six assists per game.
The top-ranked Wolverines are remarkably efficient on the other end of the floor as well, with Michigan allowing just 68 points per game.
Per KenPom, Michigan has the most efficient defense in the nation, further cementing its status as one of the top contenders to cut down the nets in six weeks.
While we have already touched upon the effectiveness of Lendeborg and Johnson down low, it’s Aday Mara who wreaks the most havoc inside the lane, serving as an elite rim protector.
Duke Basketball
Following a devastating defeat in last year's Final Four, Jon Scheyer successfully hit the mental reset button heading into his fourth season as Duke’s head coach.
Despite losing Cooper Flagg to the NBA, the Blue Devils have yet to skip a beat in 2025-26 and head into Saturday's contest with an incredibly impressive 24-2 overall record.
Scheyer had quite the offseason, namely securing the No. 3-ranked prospect in the country in Cameron Boozer, the son of former Duke forward Carlos Boozer.
Boozer has been a monster on both ends of the floor and is surely in the conversation for the Naismith Player of the Year Award, averaging a double-double per contest.
Like Michigan, the nation’s third-ranked Blue Devils have one of, if not, the best frontcourts in college basketball.
While Duke ranks just 37th in the country in total scoring this season, it has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking seventh in the country, per KenPom.
Caleb Foster runs point for a very up-tempo and complex Blue Devils offense. Alongside Duke’s two-guard Isaiah Evans, who's posting over 14 points per game this season, the Blue Devils boast a ton of athleticism and scoring ability all over the floor.
Scheyer is among the best offensive minds in the sport, integrating some fairly complex offensive schematics both in Duke’s half-court offense and in transition.
On the other end of the floor, Duke has one of the nation’s top perimeter defenses, with Scheyer’s bunch allowing just 64 points to opposing offenses. The Blue Devils rank second in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, ironically trailing just their Saturday opponent — Michigan.
Michigan vs. Duke Betting Analysis
Saturday night’s top-five clash will surely be must-watch television as the nation’s top-two defenses will be put to the test, matched up with two offenses that largely operate at a rapid pace, with a ton of points scored in transition.
The scene will be set at a neutral site, Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., which should provide even further intrigue for what could very well be the game of the season. May’s top-ranked Wolverines faced a gauntlet of opponents early on, dismantling several difficult foes, none of which are on the level of Scheyer’s Blue Devils.
For two teams that thrive defensively, it begs the question: Who can better neutralize the primary scoring means in a matchup featuring this much explosive offensive firepower?
Duke has excelled offensively through a motion offense that implements heavy spacing with the ultimate goal of driving to the basket, while also relying on its perimeter guards as fallback options if doubled. This is largely centered on Boozer’s effectiveness in iso situations and his ability to create his own offense by taking it to the basket.
While this has been unbelievably effective for Duke’s offensive flow thus far, Boozer has yet to face a frontcourt with this much size and physicality in the lane. He may have more difficulty creating his own offense with overwhelming size under the basket.
Michigan’s size could result in Boozer being less effective offensively, thus forcing the Blue Devils to attempt more field goals from beyond the arc. However, May’s perimeter defense is exceptional as well.
This is an extremely tough handicap with arguably the two best teams in college basketball. That said, I favor the Wolverines given their interior size and potential to at least neutralize Boozer’s scoring avenues to some extent.
My Pick: Michigan ML -150
