The Michigan Wolverines take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Iowa predictions and college basketball picks for March 5, 2026.
Michigan vs Iowa Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -8.5
My Michigan vs Iowa best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs. Iowa Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 145.5 -110 / -110 | -500 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 145.5 -110 / -110 | +375 |
- Michigan vs Iowa spread: Michigan -8.5
- Michigan vs Iowa over/under: 145.5 points
- Michigan vs Iowa moneyline: Michigan -500, Iowa +375
Michigan vs Iowa College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
Following just its second defeat of the season nearly two weeks ago, Michigan has bounced back in impressive fashion, taking down Minnesota and then beating the brakes off a very talented Illinois team on its home floor in Champaign.
Michigan enters Thursday night’s conference duel with a 27-2 overall record, only having dropped one game in Big Ten play this season. Dusty May’s bunch currently sits as the outright favorite to cut down the nets in the NCAA Tournament.
Elliot Cadeau runs the point for an impressive Wolverines offense that's scoring nearly 90 points per game. The former Tar Heel guard has stepped right into place as Michigan’s floor general and is thriving on both ends of the floor.
He's scoring over 10 points per game, while also tallying 5.5 assists on average, which ranks inside the top 35 in the entire country.
While Cadeau has been fantastic, it's the Wolverines' frontcourt that's been a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses.
Yaxel Lendeborg is the leading scorer for Michigan, but it doesn't stop there as Morez Johnson Jr. is having himself quite the season, posting 13 points a night. Johnson has been even more effective on the other end of the floor, standing at the heart of an elite defensive frontcourt.
Johnson is a fantastic rim protector for May’s interior defense, and alongside 7-foot-3 Aday Mara, has created nightmare matchups for opposing forwards trying to find open looks inside the paint.
While the Wolverines have one of the top offenses in college basketball, May’s defensive unit has been even better, ranking second in the entire country in defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
In more recent news, the Wolverines’ sixth man — L.J. Cason — just suffered a season-ending ACL tear.
Iowa Basketball
After missing the last two NCAA Tournaments, Iowa is in great shape to make the Big Dance in head coach Ben McCollum’s first campaign in Iowa City. Per ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, the Hawkeyes are currently projected to receive a nine seed.
Bennett Stirtz is having a phenomenal final collegiate season, posting 20.5 points per game, along with nearly five assists on average.
The former D-II standout made a big decision in the offseason to transfer to Iowa after having spent his junior season at Drake. Stirtz has proved to be one of the best natural scorers in the country.
Iowa’s senior point guard leads an offense that's scoring just below 76 points per game and ranks inside the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
Stirtz is a phenomenal 3-point shooter, converting on over 40% of his attempts from beyond the arc, and he's been a nightmare for opposing perimeter defenses all season long.
Alongside Stirtz in McCollum's backcourt, Tavion Banks is having a solid final collegiate season, as well, posting over 10 points per contest.
For a Hawkeyes offense known for its up-tempo, high-volume shooting under the program’s former head coach (Fran McCaffery), the team’s identity has completely shifted under McCollum.
Under McCaffery for 15 seasons, there's no doubt that Iowa had some great teams, but its defense was always a liability, which definitely capped its postseason ceiling.
This season, the Hawkeyes are allowing their opponents to score just under 65 points per game, maintaining an impressive double-digit scoring margin.
Behind the superb defensive efforts of Iowa forwards Alvaro Folgueiras and Cooper Koch, McCollum's interior defense has been very effective in containing the offensive production of opposing forwards.
The Hawkeyes' interior defense will surely be put to the test on Thursday when matched up with a Michigan frontcourt boasting a ton of size and physicality.
Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Analysis
Thursday’s Big Ten clash has postseason implications for both sides, as Iowa looks to preserve its status above the bubble prior to Selection Sunday, while Michigan continues its quest to receive the top overall seed in the Big Dance.
It'll surely be a contrast of styles, as Dusty May’s up-tempo offense goes on the road to meet an Iowa team that loves to slow down the game and remains patient for efficient shot-taking opportunities late in the shot clock.
While Iowa has been very reliable on its home floor at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, it faces a Michigan team that may be the most well-rounded in the entire country, with top-five units on both ends of the floor.
My Pick: Michigan -8.5
