The Michigan Wolverines take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, IN. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Purdue prediction and college basketball picks for February 17, 2026.
Michigan vs Purdue Prediction
My Pick: Michigan ML -130
My Michigan vs Purdue best bet is on the Wolverines to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs. Purdue Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | -130 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | +110 |
- Michigan vs Purdue spread: Michigan -1.5
- Michigan vs Purdue over/under: 156.5 points
- Michigan vs Purdue moneyline: Michigan -130, Purdue +110
Michigan vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
The Wolverines enter Tuesday's contest with a 24-1 overall record.
They began the campaign with one of the most dominant 10-game stretches of basketball I’ve seen in recent memory, dismantling their opponents by an average win margin of nearly 35 points. Michigan’s opponents weren’t slouches either, as it defeated the likes of San Diego State, Auburn, Gonzaga, Villanova and USC.
While Michigan suffered its first defeat of the season in a home loss to Wisconsin as huge favorites, Dusty May’s bunch has bounced back in a big way since, winning its last 10 contests.
The Wolverines' roster has a ton of experience from top to bottom, with Yaxel Lendeborg leading Michigan’s offense with just under 15 points per game.
Alongside Lendeborg in the frontcourt, 6-foot-9 forward Morez Johnson Jr. is also having a spectacular season, posting over 13 points per contest. The Sophomore has been one of the most efficient offensive forwards in the entire country, converting on 68% of his field-goal attempts, which ranks fourth in college basketball.
The two Wolverine forwards boast unbelievably impressive athleticism for their size, both posing a matchup nightmare for opposing frontcourts.
Elliot Cadeau runs point for an offense that operates like a well-oiled machine. While the former Tar Heel isn't a great scorer, he's very effective with the ball in his hands, averaging nearly six assists per game this season.
Cadeau adds a ton of experience to a Wolverines offense scoring 91 points per game, while ranking fourth in college basketball in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
Michigan is just as deadly on defense, allowing under 69 points per game. May’s Wolverines rank first in the entire country in defensive efficiency, excelling on both ends of the floor.
The defensive efforts of the 7-foot-3 Aday Mara will be massive in this matchup. The junior from Spain has been a monster rim protector, making it extremely difficult for opposing forwards to generate any offense in the post.
Purdue Basketball
Matt Painter’s bunch has one of the most experienced starting lineups in college basketball, establishing itself as a legitimate title contender in 2025-26.
Purdue has been exceptional offensively, with point guard Braden Smith leading the charge. The senior is averaging 15 points and nine assists per game (second nationally).
Smith leads a Boilermakers offense that ranks second in the country in efficiency, according to Halsametrics.
Alongside Smith in Painter’s backcourt, fellow senior guard Fletcher Loyer is having a huge season of his own, scoring over 14 points per game.
Up front, Trey Kaufman-Renn adds even more experience to Purdue’s lineup, posting 12 points and nine rebounds per game. He excels on the defensive end of the floor, as well, as he's an exceptional rim-protector.
Painter’s defense ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, allowing just 66 points per game.
Purdue will require its best defensive effort of the season on Tuesday, as it's matched up with the most efficient offense in the country.
Michigan vs. Purdue Betting Analysis
Tuesday night’s battle for Big Ten supremacy will be must-watch basketball as two of the hottest teams in the country are set to square off.
Michigan puts its 10-game win streak on the line at one of the most difficult venues to play at.
For a Wolverines squad that boasts a ton of athleticism in its frontcourt, Painter’s “drop coverage” defensive scheme will be put to the test. The primary focus of the Boilermakers' defense on Tuesday will be preventing lane penetration and protecting the rim, relying on its size in the paint.
I expect May’s bunch to stick to its typical offensive game plan, one with fast-paced ball movement centered on high-volume 3-point shooting. In the half-court, Michigan should run offensive sets through its versatile forwards at the high post to create scoring opportunities of its own or find open shooters on the perimeter.
The Wolverines will look to maintain their incredibly up-tempo offense and win the rebounding battle to create transition offense going the other way. Michigan ranks first in the sport in transition scoring.
For a Purdue offense that generates a ton of offense in the paint, I worry about its ability to score inside when matched up with an elite frontcourt — mainly Aday Mara.
If the Boilermakers aren't able to capitalize from beyond the arc, I think they'll have a difficult time matching Michigan’s offensive firepower.
I favor Michigan to keep on rolling with a hard-fought road victory.
My Pick: Michigan ML -130
