The Northern Iowa Panthers take on the Saint Mary's Gaels in Moraga, CA. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Saint Mary's is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 131.5 points.
Here’s my Northern Iowa vs. Saint Mary's predictions and college basketball picks for December 22, 2025.
Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary's Prediction
My Pick: Saint Mary's -12.5 (Play to -13)
My Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary's best bet is on the Gaels to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Northern Iowa vs. Saint Mary's Odds
| Northern Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 131.5 -110 / -110 | +12.5 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 131.5 -110 / -110 | -12.5 |
- Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary's spread: Saint Mary's -12.5
- Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary's over/under: 131.5 points
- Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary's moneyline: Northern Iowa +650, Saint Mary's -1000
Northern Iowa vs Saint Mary's College Basketball Betting Preview
Northern Iowa Basketball
Northern Iowa is one of the more consistently strong mid-major programs in Division I. It's off to a 9-2 start and ranks 95th on KenPom.
While Northern Iowa lacks a top-100 win, both of its losses came by narrow margins against solid AAC competition in Tulsa and Wichita State.
The Panthers are an exception in the college basketball world, as head coach Ben Jacobson was able to retain much of his roster. Northern Iowa holds the sixth-highest minutes continuity rating in the country from last season.
One of those returning players is four-year starting guard Trey Campbell, who averages 12.8 points and 3.5 assists per game. The Panthers' leading scorer is Virginia transfer Leon Bond III, whose 13.7 points per game leads the team.
Jacobson’s crew leans on its fantastic defense, playing a slow-paced, half-court style. The Panthers are 22nd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, allowing just 57.6 points per game, the second-lowest number in the sport.
Northern Iowa takes great care of the ball, holding the 26th-best turnover percentage nationally. 65.2% of its made field goals have been assisted on, the 10th-highest rate in the country.
Saint Mary's Basketball
Randy Bennett has Saint Mary’s operating at an expected level, as it's off to a 10-2 start on the season while sitting 33rd in KenPom. The Gaels didn’t land a true marquee non-conference win, getting blown out by Vanderbilt and falling by one to Boise State, the two strongest opponents on their schedule.
The underlying numbers are bullish on the Gaels, though, in large part because of how thoroughly they take care of inferior opponents and rack up efficiency on both ends.
Bennett’s crew is great on the defensive end per usual (18th on KenPom), but it checks in at 63rd offensively.
The Gaels are up to 232nd in adjusted tempo on the season. This is the first time in over a decade they haven’t been one of the 20 slowest teams in the country. That quicker pace of play was on display in the Gaels' most recent win on Friday over Florida Atlantic, 88-75.
Bennett leans on his frontcourt duo of 7-foot-3 Andrew McKeever and 7-foot-1 Harry Wessels to overwhelm opponents on the glass and convert on deep post touches. McKeever is the fifth-best offensive rebounder in the country, per KenPom.
Sophomore guards Mikey Lewis and Joshua Dent have taken big steps forward in year two, bringing some fun creation off the dribble.
Lewis is a sniper from long range, as he's up to 44% on the season.
Dent has found another gear the past couple weeks, averaging 20.3 points and 5.7 assists across three December games.
Northern Iowa vs. Saint Mary's Betting Analysis
This is a fun matchup between two of the better mid-major programs in the country. Well, fun for fans who appreciate surgical execution, defense and half-court basketball.
It’s jarring to be analyzing a Saint Mary’s game in which the other team plays at a slower pace. It’s such a rarity. I initially was leaning towards going under on the 130.5 total, but I ultimately think laying the points with the Gaels is the better choice.
Even if the pace isn’t as slow as it typically is out in Moraga, I have a lot of faith in the Gaels to feel extremely comfortable in a half-court-style game.
And while Northern Iowa has been so fantastic on the defensive end this year, the size matchup is too difficult for me to overlook. Wessels and McKeever are such a nightmare to deal with down low and on the offensive glass.
Northern Iowa’s two main bigs — Ben Schwieger and Will Hornseth — stand at just 6-foot-8 and can only do so much to box out and contest the two towers.
Saint Mary’s hasn’t covered a number this big in a month, but with the massive size mismatch and Dent/Lewis in a nice offensive rhythm, I’ll lay it here at home.
My Pick: Saint Mary's -12.5 (Play to -13)
