The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the UNC Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
UNC is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my Notre Dame vs. UNC predictions and college basketball picks for January 21, 2026.
Notre Dame vs UNC Prediction
My Pick: UNC 1H ATS | Caleb Wilson Over Points + Rebounds + Assists
My Notre Dame vs UNC best bet is on UNC to cover the first half spread and Caleb Wilson Over Points + Rebounds + Assists. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Notre Dame vs. UNC Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 145.5 -110 / -110 | +500 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 145.5 -110 / -110 | -700 |
- Notre Dame vs UNC spread: UNC -10.5
- Notre Dame vs UNC over/under: 145.5 points
- Notre Dame vs UNC moneyline: Notre Dame +500, UNC -700
Notre Dame vs UNC College Basketball Betting Preview
Notre Dame Basketball
Notre Dame enters Wednesday night’s matchup with UNC having lost four consecutive games, sitting at just 1-5 in ACC play so far.
Micah Shrewsberry has been at the helm for the Fighting Irish since 2023, and his tenure has been far from superb, compiling a 38-46 record over his first three seasons in South Bend.
The Irish suffered a major setback just four games into the season when star guard Markus Burton went down with a significant left ankle injury, and he remains without a timetable for return. Burton had started his junior campaign with a bang, averaging over 18 points per game after leading the ACC in scoring last season.
After a promising 3-1 start to 2025-26, Shrewsberry’s group has struggled mightily, winning just half of its games since Burton went down in early December.
In Burton’s absence, freshman forward Jalen Haralson has shouldered much of the offensive load, averaging nearly 15 points per game through the first 18 contests. Unfortunately, the rest of Notre Dame’s lineup hasn't followed suit, as the Irish rank outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
If Notre Dame hopes to turn its season around and build a respectable tournament resume, it needs to start on Wednesday night in Chapel Hill. The Fighting Irish have been more competitive on the defensive end, ranking just outside the top 50 in defensive efficiency.
UNC Basketball
UNC began the 2025-26 season on an extremely high note, winning 18 of its first 19 games, including several impressive victories over the likes of Kansas and Kentucky.
The Tar Heels have hit a bit of a speed bump over the last two weeks, dropping three of their last four contests and posting a 2-3 record in ACC play.
This matchup carries major implications for Hubert Davis’ group, as it looks to turn around its conference fortunes.
After Roy Williams stepped away following a highly successful tenure in Chapel Hill, North Carolina made a splash hire by bringing in Davis.
In his first season as head coach in 2022, UNC made an epic run to the national title game as an eight-seed, ultimately blowing a 17-point second-half lead as Bill Self’s Jayhawks cut down the nets.
Following that spectacular debut season, the Tar Heels endured a sharp drop-off in 2023, missing the NCAA Tournament despite entering the year ranked No. 1 in the preseason top 25.
Since then, UNC has rebounded, returning to the NCAA Tournament in each of the past two seasons in what has largely been a successful tenure for Davis.
Leading the way for the Heels in 2025-26 is freshman superstar Caleb Wilson. The 6-foot-10 forward has already established himself as one of the best players in college basketball, averaging 19.7 points and 10.6 rebounds through his first two months in Chapel Hill.
In one of the most talented freshman classes in recent memory, Wilson is widely projected as a top-five pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Alongside Wilson, senior point guard Seth Trimble is enjoying an excellent season in the Tar Heels’ backcourt. Now in his fourth year with the program, Trimble is averaging 15 points per game to go along with three rebounds and three assists.
Seven-foot Estonian forward Henri Veesaar has also been a pleasant surprise in an already stacked frontcourt. The junior is scoring over 17 points per game while controlling the glass for a UNC offense that ranks 35th nationally in offensive efficiency.
Defensively, Davis’ group has been less consistent, ranking outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
If UNC is going to build momentum over the final two months of the season, improvement on that end of the floor will be critical with a loaded ACC schedule still ahead.
Notre Dame vs. UNC Betting Analysis
While UNC has lost three of its last four games and appears to be spiraling a bit to begin conference play, I’m not overly concerned given the talent on this roster.
The Heels have a perfect matchup Wednesday night to regain momentum on their home floor against one of the weakest teams in the ACC, and I don’t see a clear path for the Irish to contain Wilson.
I expect the Tar Heels to come out extremely hot in what is essentially a must-win spot, so the only way to approach this game is to back UNC.
I’m taking a slightly different angle, though, as I'm taking the Heels to cover the first-half spread in a game where they should be highly motivated to keep their foot on the gas early.
I’ll also look to the prop market for additional value, targeting the over on Caleb Wilson’s PRA.
My Pick: UNC 1H ATS | Caleb Wilson Over Points + Rebounds + Assists
