The Pitt Panthers take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville on Tuesday, Feb. 3. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Virginia is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1300. Pitt, meanwhile, enters as a +14 underdog and is +800 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 140.5 points.
Here’s my Pitt vs. Virginia prediction and college basketball picks for Tuesday, February 3.
Pitt vs Virginia Prediction
My Pick: Pitt +14 (Play to +13)
My Pitt vs Virginia best bet is on the Panthers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Pitt vs Virginia Odds
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | +800 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -1300 |
- Pitt vs Virginia Spread: Virginia -14
- Pitt vs Virginia Over/Under: 140.5 points
- Pitt vs Virginia Moneyline: Pitt +800, Virginia -1300
Pitt vs Virginia College Basketball Betting Preview
Pitt Basketball
Pitt has only won twice since Christmas, a 23-point road win at Georgia Tech and an overtime home victory over Wake Forest. Jeff Capel is back on the hot seat, with the Panthers sitting at 9-13 overall and 2-7 in ACC play.
Even with an undersized lineup — 6-foot-10 Cam Corhen is the only consistent rotation player listed above 6-foot-6 — this Pitt team excels in the rebounding department.
Pitt is one of six Division I teams that sit top-42 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage since Jan. 1.
Corhen is the key cog in this rebounding prowess, alongside Roman Siulepa. The freshman from Australia is an elite athlete and has averaged a staggering 7.3 offensive rebounds per game over his last four contests.
Outside of the production on the glass, there aren't many areas where this team succeeds.
In ACC play, the Panthers rank 16th in the league in effective field-goal percentage and are dead last in effective field-goal percentage allowed. Pitt also ranks dead last in the ACC in 3-point percentage, shooting below 30% as a team.
Another area where Pitt has really struggled is free-throw shooting. The Panthers are converting just 66.3% from the stripe.
Pitt has some talented shot-creators in Damarco Minor, Brandin Cummings, Barry Dunning Jr. and Omari Witherspoon, but the offensive production has been wildly inconsistent across the board.
Virginia Basketball
Ryan Odom has one of the deepest and most balanced teams in the country in his first year at the helm in Charlottesville. Odom’s group sits top-30 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and comes in at 18-3 on the season.
This past week was difficult for the Cavaliers, although they escaped unscathed with a 2-0 record.
Virginia needed two overtime periods to take down Notre Dame in South Bend, then needed a late push to pull away from a struggling Boston College team and win by seven.
As balanced as this Virginia group is, it has become clear recently that the 22-year-old “freshman” from Belgium, Thijs De Ridder, is the focal point of the offense.
De Ridder has scored 17 or more points in five of his last six games, most notably a season-high 32 against Notre Dame. The 6-foot-9 forward’s combination of strength and skill presents a matchup problem for most teams.
Virginia ranks second in the ACC in both assist rate and 3-point attempt rate, although its shooting from deep has cooled off as of late. This group was lights-out from 3 during non-conference play, but it ranks just 13th in the league at 31.5% halfway through ACC play.
Virginia ranks third nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, with De Ridder getting plenty of help from the Cavaliers’ two seven-foot centers, Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso.
Both bigs have also been excellent rim protectors, ranking among the top 15 shot blockers nationally.
Pitt vs Virginia Pick, Betting Analysis
Virginia was undefeated at home this season until its most recent game at John Paul Jones Arena, an 85-80 loss to North Carolina.
I expect the Cavaliers to return to their winning ways here at home against one of the weaker teams in the league. However, I'm inclined to side with Pitt catching a lot of points.
The Panthers have struggled this season, but they've been competitive in most of their losses. Outside of a 40-point blowout against Louisville, Pitt hasn't lost an ACC game by more than 11 points.
Sure, traveling to Virginia is one of the most difficult assignments on the ACC schedule, but I expect the Panthers to be reasonably competitive in this spot.
Corhen and Siulepa have the strength and athleticism to battle inside with De Ridder. Even if the Panthers have been inefficient offensively, I trust their guards to create off the bounce and score tough shots, which is often required against Virginia’s backline rim protection.
I'll take the points in a matchup between two of the slowest-paced teams in the league.
My Pick: Pitt +14 (Play to +13)
