The SMU Mustangs take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, Kentucky, on Saturday, Jan. 31. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville is favored by 8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. SMU, meanwhile, enters as a +8 underdog and is +325 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 161.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Louisville prediction and college basketball picks for Saturday, January 31.
SMU vs Louisville Prediction
- My Pick: SMU +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
My SMU vs Louisville best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs Louisville Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- SMU vs Louisville Spread: Louisville -8
- SMU vs Louisville Over/Under: 161.5 points
- SMU vs Louisville Moneyline: SMU +325, Louisville -425
SMU vs Louisville College Basketball Betting Preview
SMU Basketball
SMU comes into this game winners of two in a row, now sitting at 15-5 overall and 4-3 in the ACC. Much of that success is due to the Mustangs' play from beyond the arc, as they lead the conference in 3-point percentage at 41%.
They boast a three-headed monster in the backcourt in Boopie Miller, B.J. Edwards and Jaron Pierre Jr.
Miller has had five double-doubles this year, Edwards has had two triple-doubles and Pierre averages 17.5 points per game, scoring in double figures every game this season.
Defensively, Edwards and Miller are aggressive, looking for steals.
One of Edwards' triple-doubles this year came against Arkansas State, where he had 10 steals while Miller had seven.
Pierre is the best all-around defender for the Mustangs, as opposing players are shooting 19-of-81 (23.5%) on jumpers when guarded by him this season.
When it comes to SMU's frontcourt, look for solid production in this game.
Samet Yigitoglu has been underwhelming in conference play so far this year, but he's better than what he has shown. Meanwhile, freshman Jaden Toombs had 23 points on 10-of-12 shooting at Duke, but he has been inconsistent since then.
Louisville Basketball
Pat Kelsey was the preseason ACC Coach of the Year, and Louisville was considered by many to be a dark horse to win the conference. So far, that has been far from the case.
Louisville sits at 14-6 overall and 4-4 in the ACC. It's coming off an 83-52 loss at Duke, where Mikel Brown Jr. shot just 1-of-13 from the field.
Things are not going well in Louisville so far this season, and the fans feel it. The Cardinals are 3-4 in their last seven games and are still looking for their first signature win of the season.
The good news for Louisville is that Ryan Conwell has been great. He continues to light up opponents. His 18 points at Duke means he has scored in double figures in every game but one this season.
When it comes to Brown, I'll take the optimistic approach and say that he was still getting the rust off in Cameron and is champing at the bit for a bounce-back performance.
The story for this team is that it shoots a lot of 3s because it lacks a consistent scoring threat down low.
Sananda Fru has shown flashes, but those flashes have been against bad frontcourts.
In four games against good front-court defenses (Duke twice, Virginia, Tennessee), Fru has averaged 3.5 points on three shot attempts per game.
SMU doesn't grade out as a great front-court defense, but Yigitoglu can cause problems with his physicality down low.
SMU vs Louisville Betting Analysis
This is a strong take, but I think the wrong team is favored in this game.
SMU has been the more consistent team and arguably has the best trio of guards in the ACC. To go along with the guard play, I trust SMU's frontcourt more than I trust Louisville's.
Take the points with the Ponies, and sprinkle that moneyline.
My Pick: SMU +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
