The UConn Huskies take on the Xavier Musketeers in Cincinnati, Ohio. Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET on Peacock.
UConn is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my UConn vs. Xavier prediction and college basketball picks for December 31, 2025.
UConn vs Xavier Prediction
My Pick: UConn -13 or Better
My UConn vs Xavier best bet is on the Huskies to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UConn vs. Xavier Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -106 | 145.5 -115 / -105 | -1000 |
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -114 | 145.5 -115 / -105 | +640 |
- UConn vs Xavier spread: UConn -12.5
- UConn vs Xavier over/under: 145.5 points
- UConn vs Xavier moneyline: UConn -1000, Xavier +640
UConn vs Xavier College Basketball Betting Preview
UConn Basketball
Stop me if you've heard this before: Danny Hurley has built a beast up in Storrs.
Like both of his recent title teams, Hurley once again has a team built to win defensively. Those teams were also in the top five nationally offensively, while this season's team will make its bones by getting stops. Teams are shooting just 26% from outside the arc against the Huskies.
Some of that is fluky and can regress, yet that's less likely to be true for a team like UConn. Hurley emphasizes 3-point avoidance, with UConn allowing a low rate of field goals from deep, a low percentage on 2-pointers and one of the nation's lowest rates of assists.
The Huskies' only flaw defensively is some slap-happy tendencies that lead to fouls (and Hurley meltdowns), but I almost see that working hand in hand with the rest of the defensive strategy.
UConn wants opposing creators on an island, receiving physical on-ball defense without opportunities to share or pull up on the perimeter.
If there's a weakness to watch for in Big East play, it's UConn's offensive ceiling. The Huskies rank 30th in the country in percentage of points coming from 2-pointers.
Without foul shots or a heavy dose of 3s, this squad doesn't have the same ability to score in spurts as we've seen from recent UConn teams.
A great metric to show that issue is EvanMiya.com's "killshot," a term for a 10-0 run in a game — UConn averages just 0.62 killshots per game, the fewest in the Big East.
Xavier Basketball
The Richard Pitino era at Xavier began with a rocky start. The Musketeers' first two games were wins of five points or fewer against Marist and LeMoyne — not exactly college basketball's blue bloods — followed by a 19-point drubbing by Santa Clara at home.
Wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia attempted to reposition the ship as Big East play loomed. Yet, the Musketeers then started conference play by losing to a middle-of-the-road Creighton team by 41 points, again at home.
Some of this volatility is expected of a team returning zero minutes from last season's roster. That's dangerous territory for a program of Xavier's stature.
EvanMiya ranked Xavier 69th in incoming transfer talent this offseason, but 354th in overall transfer activity, with Ryan Conwell heading to Louisville and Dailyn Swain going to Texas as the top 40 transfers in the class.
Pitino's team has been messy so far. Xavier is sixth in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio as a team, but doesn't really do anything with those added possessions. The Musketeers are shooting below 50% from inside the arc, below 70% at the free-throw line and never find their way to the foul line.
Defensively, Xavier does a great job forcing teams away from 3-point attempts, yet allows a bottom-five assist rate and tons of great looks at the rim.
UConn vs. Xavier Betting Analysis
Xavier's reliance on the 3-pointer makes the Musketeers a volatile underdog, especially at home in the Cintas Center, facing a team more apt to attack inside the arc.
The Musketeers could have a great shooting game and keep this game close. That's certainly possible with the UConn defense's impending shooting regression, yet the median outcome for this game has Hurley making the right adjustments to put Xavier away with ease.
My Pick: UConn -13 or Better
