The UMass Minutemen play the Miami (OH) RedHawks in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament. Tip-off is set for 11 a.m. ET on ESPN+.
Miami (OH) is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -315. The total is set at 164.5 points. UMass is an underdog at +7.5 with a moneyline of +255
Here’s my UMass vs. Miami (OH) predictions and college basketball picks for March 12, 2026.
UMass vs Miami (OH) Prediction
My Pick: UMass +7.5
My UMass vs Miami (OH) best bet is on the Minutemen to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UMass vs Miami (OH) Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 164.5 -110 / -110 | +255 |
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 164.5 -110 / -110 | -315 |
- UMass vs Miami (OH) spread: Miami (OH) -7.5
- UMass vs Miami (OH) over/under: 164.5 points
- UMass vs Miami (OH) moneyline: UMass +255, Miami (OH) -315
UMass vs Miami (OH) College Basketball Betting Preview
UMass Basketball
Frank Martin’s bunch has a 16-15 overall record in his third season at the helm, winning just seven of the team’s 18 games in conference play.
The Minutemen have been to the NCAA Tournament just three times since John Calipari’s epic Final Four run in 1996
Martin was a big-time hire for Massachusetts in an attempt to revive the program, especially after he previously led Kansas State to four NCAA Tournament bids in just five seasons as head coach. More notably, Martin led South Carolina to the Final Four in 2017.
Leading the charge for this Minutemen's offense is forward Leonardo Bettiol, who's posting nearly 18 points per game in his final collegiate season.
Martin’s bunch boasts a ton of experience with guard Marcus Banks Jr. having a phenomenal senior campaign as well.
Banks is coming off an impressive 31-point performance in a victory over Ohio in the Minutemen's last game of the regular season, breaking what could've been a seven-game skid ahead of this event.
While the Minutemen’s offense is posting a solid 75 points per game this season, they've done so in relatively inefficient fashion, ranking 178th nationally in offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
Martin’s UMass squad has unfortunately been even worse on the other end of the floor, allowing its opponents to score nearly 79 points per game. According to Haslametrics, the Minutemen post a very poor defensive efficiency metric at 111.6, which ranks outside the top 220 in college basketball.
For a UMass team that's won just one of its last seven contests, it couldn't have drawn a more difficult matchup in the MAC’s first round. Its inability to defend the perimeter could be very problematic against an undefeated Miami (OH) team that lights it up from beyond the arc.
Miami (OH) Basketball
In one of the greatest college hoops stories over the last decade-plus, Miami (OH) navigated a 31-game schedule without a single defeat. This is truly incredible in the modern era, with the only recent programs accomplishing this goal being Gonzaga (2021), Kentucky (2015) and Wichita State (2013).
In his fourth season at the helm, Travis Steele's RedHawks have sparked a national debate on the team’s tournament status, given a hypothetical defeat in the MAC Tournament would be their first loss of the season.
While my stance is that they absolutely should make the Big Dance even with an upset defeat to UMass on Thursday, the other side certainly has a legitimate argument, with the RedHawks lacking a single Quad 1 victory and earning just two Quad 2 victories — both of which were pretty “bottom of the barrel” in Wright State and Akron.
The RedHawks’ vast success can be attributed to their well-rounded lineup, and deep rotation. Peter Suder leads the team in scoring with nearly 15 points per contest.
Steele’s bunch boasts elite guard play all around, with Eian Elmer and Luke Skaljac having great seasons as well.
The RedHawks' frontcourt also excels on the offensive end of the floor, with Brant Byers scoring nearly 15 points per game.
The versatility and depth of this Miami (OH) team is undoubtedly a large indicator as to how the RedHawks have survived several months of play without a single loss. Steele's rotation features seven players who are averaging double figures in scoring.
While Miami’s offense ranks ninth nationally with nearly 88 points per contest, it ranks 70th in offensive efficiency rating, which is likely an indicator of its poor strength of schedule.
Steele’s squad boasts a ton of experience and 3-point shooting prowess, two vital components that largely characterize the type of teams that thrive in March.
On the other end of the floor, the RedHawks' defense is allowing its opponents to score 76 points per game. While that's not too concerning on the surface, Steele’s bunch hasn't faced an elite offense all season, surely making it a cause for concern.
UMass vs Miami (OH) Pick, Betting Analysis
This is the third meeting this season between these MAC rivals, with undefeated Miami (OH) obviously prevailing in both of the first two contests.
Both matchups were pretty close, with the RedHawks winning by just two points on their home floor, followed by a nine-point victory on the road in Amherst just a couple of weeks ago.
At the risk of sounding too cliché, it's very difficult to beat the same team three times. This may be a more closely-contested matchup than the odds suggest.
Miami (OH) is coming off three consecutive victories all by a two-point margin, and it feels as if the dominoes may inevitably fall for the team’s first defeat.
After two pretty close matchups with UMass in its first two encounters, I don't mind taking a shot on the 'dog in this spot. Despite their atrocious skid, the Minutemen have had several spike offensive performances this season and are very well-coached by Martin, who has experience winning in March.
While they may not win outright, I'll back the Minutemen getting points.
My Pick: UMass +7.5
