The UNC Tar Heels take on the Miami Hurricanes in Coral Gables, Florida. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
UNC is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Miami prediction and college basketball picks for February 10, 2026.
UNC vs Miami Prediction
My Pick: Miami +2 (-125)
My UNC vs Miami best bet is on the Hurricanes to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs. Miami Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- UNC vs Miami spread: UNC -1
- UNC vs Miami over/under: 158.5 points
- UNC vs Miami moneyline: UNC -115, Miami (FL) -105
UNC vs Miami College Basketball Betting Preview
UNC Basketball
In what has been a very up-and-down campaign for the Tar Heels, they enter Tuesday night’s ACC showdown with a 19-4 overall record on the season, winning seven of their first 10 games in conference play.
After a 13-1 start, UNC hit a few speed bumps along the way, but the team has caught fire once again and is coming off a spectacular comeback victory against Duke.
In his fifth season as head coach in Chapel Hill, Hubert Davis looks to extend the Heels' winning streak to five games on the road on Tuesday.
Leading the way for this UNC offense is freshman superstar Caleb Wilson. The 6-foot-10 forward has already cemented himself as one of the best players in all of college basketball, posting 20 points per game, along with 10 rebounds on average.
Seven-foot Estonian Henri Veesaar has also been a pleasant surprise for a stacked Heels frontcourt. The junior forward is posting 17 points per game, while also dominating on the glass with nine rebounds a night. At 62.5%, the Arizona transfer ranks 16th nationally in field goal percentage.
The Heels have a nice combination of young talent and veteran leadership, with 6-foot-3 point guard Seth Trimble having a massive senior year after missing 10 games early in the season. Trimble hit the final dagger at the buzzer in Saturday’s win over Duke.
In the NIL era where loyalty comes at a premium, Trimble has spent all four seasons of his collegiate eligibility in Chapel Hill.
While the senior guard took a backseat to Caleb Love in his first two seasons, Trimble has been tremendous on both ends of the floor in his final two years.
In 13 games this season, the Tar Heel point guard is averaging over 14 points per game and converting on nearly 50% of his field goal attempts. He leads an offense that averages 81 points per game and ranks in the top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency, according to Haslametrics.
UNC’s play on the other end of the floor has been a bit more concerning, with its defense allowing over 80 points per game. The Tar Heels rank outside the top 50 in the country in defensive efficiency.
Miami Basketball
Miami came scorching out of the gates in 2025-26, winning 15 of its first 17 games. In the past couple of weeks, the Hurricanes’ luck appears to have run out, dropping three of their last six contests in conference play.
In its first season under head coach Jai Lucas, Miami heads into Tuesday night’s ACC duel with an 18-5 overall record on the season, coming off a big bounce-back victory over Boston College on Saturday.
Prior to the Lucas era, head coach Jim Larranaga completely transformed a Miami program that struggled mightily in its adjustment from playing in the Big East to the ACC.
In his 12-year tenure as Hurricane head coach, Larranaga led Miami to six NCAA Tournament berths, including two Elite Eight appearances and a trip to the Final Four in 2023.
After a coaching change that resulted in a 7-24 overall record last season, the Miami Athletic Director gave Lucas a call — a decision that's paying off big time so far.
The first-year head coach has relied heavily on his senior leader, Malik Reneau. The 6-foot-10 forward is in his first year in Coral Gables after wreaking havoc in the Big Ten for three seasons at Indiana.
In his final year of collegiate eligibility, Reneau bought into his young head coach’s “hard work” philosophy.
The Miami forward is scoring 20 points per game this season, along with over six rebounds. Reneau has also been spectacular on the other end of the floor, serving as an elite rim protector, which has made it very difficult for opposing frontcourts to find open looks near the basket.
Alongside Reneau, 6-foot-11, 265-pound forward Ernest Udeh Jr. has been an anchor for Lucas’ defensive-minded philosophy, and has been crashing the glass at an impressive rate, posting over 10 rebounds per contest.
Lucas’ full-court press and trapping schemes have made Miami one of the best defensive teams in the ACC, allowing under 70 points per game this season.
The Hurricanes' backcourt also boasts a ton of athleticism, with 6-foot-3 point guard Tre Donaldson excelling on both ends of the floor.
Donaldson is another senior leader for a Miami squad with a ton of experience. The former Michigan guard is the engine of Lucas’ offense, and has been stellar thus far, posting 16-point and six-assist figures on the season.
UNC vs. Miami Betting Analysis
Transition offense will be the key for UNC, especially given Miami’s success defensively in the half-court. The Tar Heels will look to push the tempo on every defensive rebound, hoping to get an easy layup or an open look on the perimeter going the other way.
Given the Hurricanes’ defense proclivity to collapse in the paint, containing points near the basket, the Heels will look to use spacing to their advantage, getting the ball into Wilson on the post and kicking the ball back out to the perimeter when doubled.
On the offensive end of the floor, I expect Miami to have a similar game plan to that of UNC — pushing the ball in transition and creating maximum spacing against a Tar Heels defense that's struggled to defend the perimeter all season long.
I think the stout defensive efforts of Miami’s frontcourt could potentially pose a difficult matchup for Wilson.
While I do think UNC has far more offensive firepower and likely a higher ceiling in March, I could see some regression coming its way after Saturday’s win over Duke.
In the wake of the Heels having won three consecutive games on the road, it'll surely be a tough challenge to extend their streak to four, especially when matched up with a Miami team that excels on its home floor.
I'll be backing the home 'dog Canes getting points in what should be a very closely-contested matchup for all 40 minutes.
My Pick: Miami +2 (-125)
