The USC Trojans take on the Boise State Broncos in Lahaina, Hawaii, as part of the Maui Invitational. Tip-off is set for approximately 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
USC is favored by -5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my USC vs. Boise State prediction and college basketball picks for November 24, 2025.
USC vs Boise State Prediction
My Pick: USC -5 (Play to -7)
My USC vs Boise State best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
USC vs. Boise State Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -105 | 150.5 -110 / -110 | -230 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -115 | 150.5 -110 / -110 | +190 |
- USC vs Boise State spread: USC -5
- USC vs Boise State over/under: 150.5 points
- USC vs Boise State moneyline: USC -230, Boise State +190
USC vs Boise State College Basketball Betting Preview
USC Basketball
Breathe a sigh of relief, Trojans. USC barely escaped a tough-as-nails Troy squad on Thursday night, needing triple-overtime and a bonkers buzzer-beater to pull out a 107-106 victory.
For postseason purposes, a win is a win, but that game raised some red flags for the Trojans that weren't as evident in their easy, breezy first three wins.
The offense had some “my turn, your turn” clunkiness to it, with Chad Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice attempting 22 and 19 shots, respectively. Granted, they played a combined 105 minutes, but both players are over-reliant on tough jumpers and can have bouts of inefficiency as a result.
The Trojans get some interior scoring from Ezra Ausar, but they lack offensive pop overall and could struggle with more athletic opponents as the schedule stiffens.
To their credit, the Trojans’ offensive floor is typically somewhat stable because they get to the free-throw line (11th in free-throw rate, per KenPom). All three of Ausar, Baker-Mazara and Rice have taken 32 or more freebies through four games. That’s an easy route to efficient offense.
Defensively, though, the Trojans are a challenge to play against. They have immense positional size, with the 6-foot-5 Rice and 6-foot-7 Baker-Mazara forming a Redwood-sized backcourt. Eric Musselman can also turn to 7-foot-3 center Gabe Dynes to change the dynamic of the game.
Jacob Cofie and Amarion Dickerson are both outstanding individual defenders who can defend a variety of positions, and the Trojans’ overall switchability forces many difficult isolation possessions (91st percentile in frequency allowed, per Synergy).
Boise State Basketball
The Broncos have seemingly recovered well from their embarrassing season opener. Falling to Division II Hawaii Pacific is an ugly result, but Boise State has since notched a couple of impressive wins over mid-majors (Utah Valley, Wichita State) and resuscitated the hopes of an at-large bid.
Leon Rice’s squad needs a quality showing in Maui for that to happen, though.
The Broncos’ calling card is their size. The starting lineup features three 6-foot-7 wing/forward types, plus 6-foot-11 Drew Fielder in the paint. They also have 6-foot-7 shooter Pearson Carmichael, 6-foot-10 skilled Canadian Spencer Ahrens and burly 6-foot-9 forward/center Dominic Parolin coming off the bench.
The Broncos rank 20th nationally in average height as a result, and they make that size work for them in two key ways: They're outstanding on the defensive glass, and they barrage the rim to get to the free-throw line.
Fielder and Ahrens are both critical parts of that, as are big wings Javan Buchanan and RJ Keene II.
The weakness is in Boise’s backcourt. Dylan Andrews was allowed to leave UCLA without much protest, and though he’s off to a solid start this year, his bricky shooting and shaky decision-making limit his ceiling as a lead guard.
Boise also sorely lacks guard depth; beyond Andrews, the only other actual guard in the rotation is freshman Aginaldo Neto – and Neto has been horrible so far this season. That puts a burden on 6-foot-7, 230-pound Javan Buchanan as a jumbo playmaker, and overall shot generation is a problem.
USC vs. Boise State Betting Analysis
This matchup features two of the biggest teams in the country, and that overall size on the wing and in the paint should resemble a clash of the titans. Points around the rim will be at a premium.
The difference-maker for me is that USC has more shot creation with which to combat the opponent’s size.
Rice and Baker-Mazara are the kind of one-on-one scorers needed to find success against a big, switchy defense, and Musselman will pick on any mismatches he finds. Boise State doesn't have that luxury.
It's worth mentioning that Rice and his Broncos typically excel in this scenario. They're 24-15-1 against the spread as underdogs since 2021, and they'll try to muck this game up while hurling copious long defenders at USC’s guards.
The under is tempting, because I'm not wholly confident either team can create quality looks in the half-court against the other’s size. However, this is Maui, and with the Lahaina Civic Center rims letting everything in, I have no interest in backing an under.
I'll back USC, despite the Boise State underdog success. Because of USC’s supremacy at guard, I would bet this up to -7.
My Pick: USC -5 (Play to -7)
