The Utah State Aggies take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno, NV. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Utah State is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. Nevada predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2026.
Utah State vs Nevada Prediction
My Pick: Utah State -4 (Play to -5.5)
My Utah State vs Nevada best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Utah State vs. Nevada Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 149.5 -110 / -110 | -180 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 149.5 -110 / -110 | +150 |
- Utah State vs Nevada spread: Utah State -4
- Utah State vs Nevada over/under: 149.5
- Utah State vs Nevada moneyline: Utah State -180, Nevada +150
Utah State vs Nevada Live Odds (Kalshi)
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Utah State vs Nevada College Basketball Betting Preview
Utah State Basketball
Other than two straight conference losses in late January, the Aggies have been dominant this season. Utah State sits at 23-3 overall and 13-2 in conference play, having won each of its last eight games.
If the Aggies can finish the rest of the season 4-1 or better, they'll win at least a share of the Mountain West Conference title for the second time in the last three years.
Utah State's offensive attack is powered by what is definitely the best backcourt scoring duo in the MWC. MJ Collins Jr. has experienced a massive leap this season, as he never averaged double digits scoring in his three combined years at Virginia Tech and Vanderbilt.
This season, he's surged to 18.3 points per game (third in the MWC) after transferring out west to join the Aggies.
Mason Falslev, on the other hand, has started all 94 games in his three-year Utah State career and has averaged double-digit scoring totals every season of his career. Falslev averages 16.3 points per game (seventh in the MWC) and torched Nevada in the first matchup this season, scoring 26 points on 9-for-14 shooting.
Collins scored 14 in that game as well, and the Aggies' defense held Nevada to just 23 points in the first half and 62 points in the entire game en route to a 71-62 win. If Falslev and Collins play as they did in the first matchup, Utah State will be able to secure another victory.
Nevada Basketball
Nevada has had a very inconsistent season. The Wolf Pack started 4-3 and then won seven games in a row to get to 11-3 with a 3-0 conference start. Since then, though, they're just 6-6 overall. In its most recent game, Nevada lost 87-71 on the road to San Jose State, which had just one conference win coming into the game.
The Wolf Pack have gone cold at the worst possible time, as there was an argument for Nevada to be on the bubble. However, the loss to San Jose State is one the Wolf Pack won't be able to overcome to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large.
Instead, Nevada needs to focus on getting back on track before the conference tournament starts and hope it can make a championship run to save its season. Otherwise, it'll be a second straight season without an NCAA Tournament appearance after back-to-back berths in 2023 and 2024.
The Wolf Pack could build a ton of momentum by stealing this game from the MWC's top dog at home, but it'll be a tall task. Nevada lost 71-62 in the first matchup between these two teams and had trouble containing both of the Aggies' top scorers.
The Wolf Pack shot just 31.1% from the field in that game and will need a much better offensive performance on Saturday to have a chance against a great Utah State defense.
Utah State vs. Nevada Betting Analysis
Utah State has been incredibly hot recently, scoring above 80 points in four straight games before Wednesday. Even in that game, the Aggies scored 75 points in a 60-possession game, good for an elite 1.25 points per possession.
Utah State scored just 1.08 points per possession in the first matchup, and the Aggies shot below their season average on 2s. Utah State still won by nine points in the first matchup, even with that lackluster offensive performance.
Ride with the Aggies to play better offensively against a struggling Nevada team and to win by a big enough margin to cover the spread.
My Pick: Utah State -4 (Play to -5.5)
