When Alabama hired Nick Saban in January 2007, the rest of the SEC was put on notice: Get us while you can.
Mississippi State did. The Bulldogs' first meeting with Saban ended in a 17-12 home victory for MSU, awash in clanging cowbells.
From there, things got ugly for MSU, as they did for the rest of the conference. Saban won 16 straight against the Bulldogs by an average score of 33-8. This became nothing more than a tune-up game for the Tide in the SEC West.
Two significant things have changed since these two programs last met in 2023: Nick Saban retired, and Kamario Taylor signed with Miss State, spurning a late offer from Georgia.
Alabama is no longer the immovable defensive force it was under Saban, and MSU has a College Football Playoff-worthy offense for the first time since 2014.
Let's dive into the Alabama vs Mississippi State odds and my college football picks for Week 5 below.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Line
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -122 | 60.5 -105o / -115u | -235 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 +100 | 60.5 -105o / -115u | +190 |
Alabama vs Mississippi State Picks
- Over 59.5
Kamario Taylor is the highest-rated quarterback to ever sign with Mississippi State, and it takes all of two snaps to see why.
He has an electric arm, allowing him to fire the ball anywhere on the field with a simple flick of his wrist. And he has the size and athleticism to run through or around most defenders.
He ranks ninth nationally in QBR, and his “moon ball” touch is becoming the stuff of legend.
Among qualifying quarterbacks with at least 16 deep pass attempts (20-plus air yards), Taylor is the only passer with seven or more passing touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Head coach Jeff Lebby has created a perfect system for Taylor to flourish within, and that was on full display on Saturday night in Starkville.
After blowing a 14-0 lead, Lebby put the ball in Taylor’s hands late, and the sophomore delivered with a perfectly placed game-winning touchdown pass between two Missouri defenders.
Speaking of that blown lead, while the Taylor storyline is genuinely inspiring, this MSU defense is not. Austin Simmons carved up the Bulldog defense for 295 yards and three scores through the air.
Despite playing ULM and Minnesota in its nonconference slate, Mississippi State ranks 114th in pass defense and 130th in pass rush. That last stat is a major problem with Alabama coming to town.
If you choose to blitz Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell, you’re playing with fire. Alabama’s super athletic quarterback burned Florida State for a 57-yard rushing touchdown when the Seminoles dared to blitz him two weeks ago.
And if you allow him to set up shop in a clean pocket, he completes nearly 75% of his attempts with the 11th-highest passer rating in the sport, per PFF.
Perhaps it’s Alabama fatigue, a desire by the college football world to see the Tide struggle, or Russell’s small sample size, but markets haven’t caught up to the fact that this Alabama offense is elite.
The Tide are averaging 48 points per game (4th), regularly hitting explosive plays of 30-plus yards (13th), and finishing off drives at an elite level. They have entered their opponent’s red zone 19 times this season; they’ve scored on every trip, with a touchdown percentage of 79% (16th).
If Alabama can set the pace, MSU will have no choice but to rev up its NASCAR tempo.
Lebby already has his Bulldogs snapping the ball every 23 seconds (6th), so they’ll be prepared to play catch-up if Alabama hits the ground running early in this game.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Predictions
Alabama has looked vulnerable on the back end, evidenced by Florida State’s 377 passing yards and 36 points.
Under the hood, it's even worse in one specific category: tackling. Alabama ranks 93rd in that department, and the combination of Taylor, Fluff Bothwell and Anthony Evans III poses major problems in the tackle-breaking department.
All three players are elite when it comes to making the first man miss. Bothwell and Evans III are both top-15 in forced missed tackles at their respective positions, and Taylor has flashed his escapability (six missed tackles) when he has needed to.
Both teams have 40-point upside in this one. A total under 60 is too good to pass up.
Pick: Over 59.5
