Continuity in today’s college football is exceedingly rare.
Only 18 teams return their head coach, both coordinators and primary starting quarterback for the 2026 season, down from 27 last year. But some teams underwent significant turnover, changing everything but the team colors.
Let’s take a look at my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Power 4 teams that turned over the most this offseason. With so much new next year, we might be able to locate some value in the futures market.
Oklahoma State to Win Big 12 (+4000)
- Returning Production (per ESPN's Bill Connelly): 58%
- Number of QB, head coach and both coordinators returning: 0
Importing a previously successful team from the Group of 6 to the Power 5 has been proven to be a successful formula in the past.
Though a vast outlier, Curt Cignetti’s dominance at Indiana is real proof that, with the right formula and aggressive transfer portal acquisitions, you can turn a program around overnight.
Oklahoma State brings over the foundation of the 2025 North Texas Mean Green, a team that won 12 games and was an American Conference Championship away from making the College Football Playoff.
Head coach Eric Morris brings defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity and his own offensive system to Stillwater; most importantly, he brings along stud quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who threw for over 4,300 yards last season.
Morris has the pressure of following up Mike Gundy, who, though his reign grew tired at the end, had more 9-plus win seasons in his tenure at Oklahoma State than seven-or-fewer-win seasons.
It’s a ceiling play here, but with the quarterback shakeup at Texas Tech, I feel better about the Pokes' positioning in the Big 12.
They avoid three of the top four programs in league play and host Tech, which OK State owns a 15-9-2 advantage against in Stillwater.
LSU Over 8.5 Wins (+100)
- Returning Production (per ESPN's Bill Connelly): 61%
- Number of QB, head coach and both coordinators returning: 1 (DC Blake Baker)
LSU upgraded at head coach and offensive play-caller with one fell swoop by hiring Lane Kiffin this offseason. It also retained defensive coordinator Blake Baker, who improved LSU from 74th in Points Per Drive to 21st in just one season.
“Portal King” Kiffin inked 247Sports’ top-rated transfer class, headlined by a trio of five-star transfers: pass rusher Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss), tackle Jordan Seaton (Colorado) and quarterback Sam Leavitt (Arizona State).
That kind of talent influx, plus a significant improvement in offensive philosophy, makes LSU very dangerous.
The tricky part here is the schedule. On paper, it looks daunting: at Ole Miss, Tennessee and an improved Auburn, plus hosting Texas A&M, Alabama and Texas. Ouch.
But scour this lineup, and you’ll find that LSU will likely be favored over seven opponents, with two (Alabama and Tennessee) I’d consider a toss-up. And the Tigers host three of their toughest games at Death Valley — a place they’re 27-3 at since 2022.
Whether or not Kiffin can get it done in the postseason remains to be seen. But this bet isn’t on the postseason; it’s on the regular season.
Virginia Tech Over 6.5 Wins (-150)
- Returning Production (per ESPN's Bill Connelly): 69%
- Number of QB, head coach and both coordinators returning: 0
James Franklin set himself up nicely, moving to a more favorable conference and basically relocating the 2025 Penn State Nittany Lions to Blacksburg.
According to Bill Connelly’s returning production metric — which now accounts for transfer production — Virginia Tech is one of the country’s most experienced rosters (69% ranks third nationally).
I wasn’t impressed with most of what Ethan Grunkemeyer committed to film last year. He was athletic and showed some flash, but his passing was conservative, stiff and didn’t cross 220 yards until the big bowl mid-off with Clemson.
Perhaps he improves a lot this offseason, but the excitement just wasn’t there.
Franklin’s portal influence outside his players from last year is limited. Missouri edge Javion Hilson didn’t play any snaps last year, and Duke receiver Que'Sean Brown stands 5-foot-8 and 165 pounds. Those are his leading transfers who aren't coming from Happy Valley.
But the ACC is tenuous and the schedule is favorable. Outside of a run at SMU and Miami in three weeks, you can’t point to many obvious losses on this slate.
So, begrudgingly, I lean over 6.5 wins for Virginia Tech in Year 1 under Franklin. After all, he has shown the ability to win games at every stop, even if he can’t solidify “the big one.”
I don’t love the QB, but there’s plenty of room for improvement, and other than Miami, there aren't any obviously serious programs.
Michigan Under 8.5 Wins (-150)
- Returning production (per ESPN's Bill Connelly): 63%
- Number of QB, head coach and both coordinators returning: 1 (QB Bryce Underwood)
“But wait,” you say. “Didn’t you just write up a Michigan to win the Big Ten piece a couple of months ago?”
I sure did. That was a ceiling play, and this is where I fall on the win total.
Michigan could improve tenfold among the coaching ranks and in the QB room (though spring practice really didn’t look like Bryce Underwood got all that better) and still not hit nine wins.
Former Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has his work cut out for him against one of the most difficult schedules, not just in the Big Ten, but nationally.
Fortunately for the Wolverines, Oklahoma comes to Ann Arbor. But so do Indiana and Iowa, plus a wild card in Penn State.
Michigan travels to Oregon and then to Ohio State with a home date against UCLA in between. Facing Minnesota on the road isn't a given, and even the opener features Western Michigan, which is physical as heck (if not vastly outmanned).
The Wolverines should be comfortably favored in seven games and underdogs in at least four others. Have those games fall expectedly, and they're 8-4 at the end of the season.
But to further justify that futures bet, should Michigan vastly exceed expectations, they have plenty of times to prove it this season.
North Texas Under 5.5 Wins (+135)
- Returning Production (per ESPN's Bill Connelly): 32%
- Number of QB, head coach and both coordinators returning: 0
Neal Brown sits in an unenviable position: following up the best season in North Texas history.
Gone is the entire coaching staff and all of the players who turned UNT into a 12-win team on the fringe of the College Football Playoff. And as of July 2, Brown doesn’t have a dedicated offensive coordinator.
Incoming transfer Tayven Jackson will serve as QB1 to start the season and finds himself on his fourth school in five seasons.
Jackson started 11 games at UCF last year before suffering an injury late in November. He completed 63% of his passes (right around his career average of 62.4%) and added virtually nothing on the ground.
He might be pretty decent for the Mean Green, but I wouldn’t classify him as a “needle mover.”
There are 19 new starters inbound this year, and those starters have no time to mesh; North Texas tackles Indiana, UNLV and Texas State right out of the gate.
UNT projects to be more than a touchdown underdog in six games and favored at all in five max, many of those by about one possession (at Tulsa, vs. FAU).
We’re taking the alternate win total here and projecting that UNT isn’t a bowl team come November.
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