The Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Georgia State Panthers in Atlanta, Georgia. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
App State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here’s my App State vs. Georgia State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
App State vs Georgia State Prediction
- App State vs. Georgia State Pick: Georgia State +3 or Better
My Georgia State vs. App State best bet is on the Panthers to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
App State vs Georgia State Odds
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
- App State vs Georgia State point spread: App State -1.5 (-110), Georgia State +1.5 (-110)
- App State vs Georgia State over/under: 55.5 points
- App State vs Georgia State moneyline: App State -125, Georgia State +105
App State vs Georgia State Pick
First off, Georgia State has played one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country. Just take a look at its four losses:
- at Ole Miss
- James Madison
- vs. Memphis
- at Vanderbilt
It doesn't get much more brutal than that, especially for a Sun Belt team.
Meanwhile, App State ranks 128th nationally in that department with its three victories coming against Lindenwood, Charlotte and Oregon State in a game it should have lost last week. Meanwhile, its two true road games resulted in blowout losses against Boise State and Southern Miss.
It's also been an emotional two-week stretch for the Mountaineers after the unfortunate passing of former head coach Shawn Clark, so I wouldn't be surprised if this is a bit of a crash spot after last week's miraculous win that required a late goal-line stop.
Ultimately, we have two teams with drastically different schedules that are impacting the perception of the caliber of each squad.
Additionally, both are coming off results that easily could have been flipped, with Georgia State losing a dead-even game against the conference's class due to a few special teams blunders. At the same time, App State needed every last second to hold on against winless Oregon State in a game where it was statistically dominated on a down-to-down basis.
In fact, from a net success rate perspective, the Mountaineers had the luckiest win of Week 6.
I also don't mind the matchup. App State's run defense has been downright dominant, but Georgia State can't run the ball.
The Panthers can throw the ball around with the well-traveled TJ Finley, who has played very well against a gauntlet of opponents since taking over under center. He should have plenty of success dropping back against a porous Mountaineer secondary that ranks outside the top-90 nationally in EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate allowed after allowing Maalik Murphy to throw for 360 last week. Look out for stud wide receiver Ted Hurst to have a big day at the office and tight end Camden Overton-Howard to carry his momentum over after a breakout game against James Madison.
The trench play for Georgia State is miserable on both sides of the ball, which is a bit concerning, especially on defense, where it may struggle to contain Arkansas transfer running back Rashod Dubinion. However, it's not as bad as it has looked, given the quality of competition.
Regardless, I see this as more of a coin flip game, and the Panthers will benefit from reviewing some of the new designs App State used last week in quarterback JJ Kohl's first start.
Plus, Georgia State did look like a completely different team last Saturday following its bye, which makes sense with a brand new quarterback and two new coordinators that had to deal with plenty of roster turnover across a vicious schedule over the first month of the season.
There's some real quality talent on this offense that can exploit App State's primary defensive deficiencies.
Pick: Georgia State +3 or Better
