It's time for my annual college football futures piece, where I detail my favorite win total or long shot for each conference.
I'll also list the other bets I placed. The only league excluded is the MAC (you can find my thoughts in the MAC Manifesto).
I also didn't include a section for the two Independent schools, but I did bet the UConn win total under (in Jason Candle we do not trust) and Notre Dame (my preseason national title pick) to make the College Football Playoff semifinals at +145.
The Irish enter the season as my No. 1 power-rated team and should be able to leverage a laughable schedule to their advantage to set them up for success in the College Football Playoff.
Now, let's take a look at my college football futures and NCAAF win totals for the 2026 season.
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ACC Win Total
Miami Under 10.5 Wins (+118)
Death, taxes and Mario Cristobal losing a game he shouldn't. I'm banking on ol' reliable in addition to a loss at Notre Dame in which the Canes might close as an underdog north of a touchdown given the spot.
Yes, Miami is the most talented team in the ACC by a wide margin, in large part due to its overwhelming financial advantage over the rest of the league.
The Canes will also benefit from one of the easiest conference schedules, but Mario gon' Mario. Let's take a trip down memory lane at some of the games Mario has lost as a sizable favorite:
- 2025 vs. SMU (-8.5)
- 2025 vs. Louisville (-10.5)
- 2024 vs. Syracuse (-12.5)
- 2024 vs. Georgia Tech (-10.5)
- 2023 vs. Georgia Tech (-19.5)
- 2022 vs. Duke (-10)
- 2022 vs. Middle Tennessee (-25.5)
- 2021 vs. Stanford (-8.5)
- 2020 vs. Cal (-9.5)
- 2020 vs. Oregon State (-13)
- 2019 vs. Arizona State (-13)
- 2018 vs. Arizona (-7.5)
That's 12 losses as a favorite of more than a touchdown (eight as a double-digit favorite) over the past eight seasons at Oregon and Miami, with at least one in every single season. We can even go back to his days at FIU to see a similar trend.
In fact, he only went one season without losing as a favorite, which came in 2012 when FIU closed as a favorite in only one game, which it won in overtime as a 24.5-point favorite over Akron.
Plus, this Miami team has a few roster questions after seeing nine players get drafted (the most since 2001) and three others get signed as free agents.
The offensive line, in particular, lost significant NFL talent with four starters departing.
Miami also has to replace a pair of menacing NFL edge rushers in Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. The Canes certainly have a surplus of talent across the roster to backfill any losses, but there could be some growing pains in the trenches.
For what it's worth, I also played Miami to win the ACC at -145, hoping to have that ticket in pocket with a potential middle shot come early January.
It would likely take the Hurricanes losing multiple league games to not reach Charlotte, which I just don't see happening in a conference where I have them power-rated over a touchdown better than every other team.
And they don't even play my second- and third-best teams in Louisville and SMU.
In an ideal world, the U finishes 10-2 with losses at Notre Dame and, say, Clemson, but still gets to the ACC Championship (which it has somehow never won).
Other Looks: Georgia Tech Under 6.5 Wins · Virginia Tech Over 6.5 Wins
American Conference Futures
Florida Atlantic to Win American (+2500)
Still +1700 out there
I took a flier on the Owls in what should be one of the most wide-open American races in quite some time due to some major attrition at the top of the league, with some high-profile coaches leaving for power conference gigs, including:
- Ryan Silverfield (Memphis to Arkansas)
- Alex Golesh (USF to Auburn)
- Jon Sumrall (Tulane to Florida)
- Eric Morris (North Texas to Oklahoma State)
Consequently, it's no surprise those four teams rank outside the top 110 nationally in returning production, as does East Carolina, which should also take a major step back following the loss of quarterback Katin Houser (Illinois) and a bevy of others.
That's the new norm in the American, which has become a fertile breeding ground for power conferences to poach both coaches and players who shine in the league.
Therefore, it's not a shock that eight of the 14 teams rank outside the top 100 in returning production, with only two sitting in the top 50.
One of those two is Florida Atlantic (the other being Tulsa), which paces the league at 19th in returning production after entering last season at 112th last year.
This is a very experienced team (top-15 nationally a year after ranking in the bottom 10) that should benefit from the second year of new schemes.
Remember that head coach Zach Kittley came over last year and implemented his Air Raid along with quarterback Caden Veltkamp, who will return for his senior season along with star wide receiver and former Western Kentucky teammate Easton Messer.
The Owls also return a host of others on offense and brought in some promising P4 transfers to bolster the wide receiver room, while Georgia Tech transfer Ben Galloway should serve as an immediate upgrade at right tackle.
Keep in mind that this offensive line had to deal with a new blocking scheme in a new offense last year on top of a number of injuries that really hampered the jelling process.
Hopefully, they can come together this season, and the Owls can have any semblance of a rushing attack to provide some balance.
I don't have many concerns for this electric offense in 2026 as long as they can stay relatively healthy.
While the offense showed flashes throughout Kittley's first season in Boca Raton, the defense was downright dreadful. Can they improve at all in 2026?
The hope is that an experienced bunch (10 of the 16 who played 300-plus snaps return) can take the next step in the second year of defensive coordinator Brett Dewhurst's scheme.
Don't forget that was his first year as a defensive coordinator after serving as an analyst at Coastal Carolina. You'd hope it was a very valuable learning experience after taking a major step up in duties.
I also liked the portal haul for FAU on the defensive side of the ball with a good mix of proven lower-level players in Jay Crable and Joseph Sipp Jr. as floor-raisers, in addition to a handful of P4 transfers who just never panned out at their previous stops.
Maybe the newcomers won't pan out, but that's the kind of variance I'm looking for in a long shot. And I do think the defensive line room improved, which was a necessity.
Speaking of variance, Florida Atlantic went for it 62 times in 2026, which obviously led the country. Kittley certainly isn't afraid to go for it on fourth down.
I'm also banking on FAU not having an FBS-worst -21 turnover margin again.
The FBS-high 29 giveaways (to go along with only eight takeaways) were particularly detrimental in a trio of close losses against FIU, Tulane and UConn. The Owls out-gained each of those opponents by at least 69 yards but finished -7 in turnovers.
Additionally, the schedule gets much easier. Last year, FAU lost three league road games against Navy, USF and Tulane. All three were ranked at some point.
This year, those road games flip to Army (after a bye, which is a nice bonus) and a pair of rebuilding squads in North Texas and East Carolina. There's also no Tulane or Memphis on the schedule like last year.
As a result, all of their toughest league games come at home, as the Owls will host contenders Navy, UTSA and USF. It's also nice to get Navy in the Boca humidity in Week 2 with the Mids breaking in a new quarterback.
Hopefully, FAU spent some quality time in the summer preparing for Navy's unique offense.
Additionally, UTSA heads to FAU following a brutal three-game stretch against USF, Navy and at Tulane. Meanwhile, USF makes the short trip to Boca to face FAU sandwiched in between contests vs. Memphis and Tulane.
FAU has a number of schedule breaks this season that could allow it to stay in the hunt of a down American until the very end.
Throw in some positive turnover regression for an experienced roster in the second year of new schemes, and FAU could certainly make some noise, especially if some of the defensive portal additions hit their ceilings and the offensive line play improves.
Other Looks: North Texas Under
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Big Ten Win Total
Iowa Under 7.5 Wins (+120)
It's always scary betting against Kirk Ferentz for a full season. His teams seemingly always find ways to get to eight wins by pulling a few rabbits out of their hat along the way.
In fact, Iowa is just one of five teams to win at least eight games in every single season since 2015 (excluding the 2020 COVID year), along with Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama and Georgia. That's damn good company.
With that said, the Hawkeyes did win only seven in the regular season in both 2017 and 2022. I'm expecting a similar result in 2026, so I took a stab at under 7.5 at plus-money since I project closer to 7.0 wins.
There are also concerns across a roster that returns only seven starters and is the lone team in the Big Ten that ranks outside the top 100 in returning production.
The mass senior exodus is especially concerning for a program that relies on development and experience.
Let's start on offense, where the Hawkeyes still haven't named a starting quarterback to replace Mark Gronowski (now in the NFL).
Regardless of who wins the competition between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown, the quarterback position will be one of the weakest in the Big Ten.
The offensive line should still be a strong suit as usual in Iowa City, with guard Kade Pieper and left tackle Trevor Lauck back in the mix. However, I do expect a drop-off from last season following the losses of a trio of multi-year starters:
- C Logan Jones (four-year starter; second-round pick)
- RT Gennings Dunker (three-year starter; third-round pick)
- LG Beau Stephens (three-year starter; fifth-round pick)
Cael Winter is getting a lot of summer praise, but he's still a former walk-on who will be tasked with replacing a four-year starting center.
The running back room has solid depth, and tight end DJ Vonnahme could be Iowa's next stud tight end, but this offense isn't going to win many games against Big Ten competition on its own, even if UTRGV transfer wideout Tony Diaz lives up to all the fall camp hype.
So, as usual, it will be up to the Iowa defense and special teams to carry the load. However, I have my concerns with both units that are usually uber-reliable under Ferentz.
The defense returns just three starters and only brought in a handful of incoming transfers from lower levels.
The early reports are not very positive on the defensive line additions, which is ultra-concerning for a group that lost all four starters, including three to the NFL.
Without a stout defensive line eating up blocks, the Phil Parker defense just doesn't have the same chops.
In total, six defenders from last year's team now find themselves on NFL rosters, including:
- DE Max Llewellyn (seventh-rounder)
- DE Ethan Hurkett (three-year starter; signed with Chiefs)
- LB Karson Sharar (sixth-rounder)
- S Xavier Nwankpa (three-year starter; signed with Chiefs)
- DT Aaron Graves (two-year starter; signed with Ravens)
- CB TJ Hall (two-year starter; seventh-rounder)
They also lost starting safety Keon Entringer to Louisville and a rotational edge piece in Brian Allen to Vanderbilt. This is one of Parker's worst defenses on paper.
Now, let's get to the special teams, which obviously have to be mentioned when talking Iowa football. They're usually amongst the best in the country on an annual basis, but that might not be the case this season.
Not only did the Hawkeyes lose their long-time coordinator, but they also have to replace their kicker, punter and arguably the most dangerous return man in the nation in Kaden Wetjen, who essentially got drafted in the fourth round due to his electric return skills.
Replacing Wetjen will be nearly impossible, and the replacements at kicker and punter come from lower levels.
This looks like a rebuilding year with a very young and inexperienced roster with major quarterback questions and a potential rare fall-off on special teams.
I'm willing to take a shot on the rare six- or seven-win season under Ferentz even if the schedule sets up favorably with an easy nonconference and only one of the top four Big Ten teams on the slate.
Other Looks: Nebraska Over 6.5 Wins · USC to Make CFP (+260)
Big 12 Futures
TCU to Make Big 12 Championship (+850)
In the Big 12, it's Texas Tech and then everyone else. The Red Raiders are the class of the league and could end up being touchdown-plus favorites over the rest of the league.
From a power-ratings perspective, the next best team is BYU.
The Cougars bring back 13 starters and have plenty of NFL talent on both sides of the ball. They also don't face Texas Tech — the only team they lost to in 2025 — across a manageable schedule that includes seven home games for just the second time in school history.
However, I just don't see much value at their current market price for a team that has major questions at wide receiver and may really miss defensive coordinator Jay Hill and defensive backs coach Jernaro Gilford, who both left for Ann Arbor.
The special teams unit also has some major question marks, which could end up swinging one or two close games that have all seemingly gone BYU's way over the past two seasons, where the Cougars have gone 8-2 in one-possession games.
In those contests, they own a +16 turnover margin and have gone 36-for-55 (65.5%) on fourth downs. Is the regression monster looming?
So, if we are looking for another potential team to emerge, it will likely come from the next tier of teams that I have power-rated all within two points of each other:
- Houston
- Utah
- Arizona
- TCU
Houston has the experience and returning production with an ace staff in its second year but has to go on the road to Texas Tech, Kansas State (third road game in four weeks) and Utah (eighth straight game prior to the bye week).
The Cougars also have some potential negative regression looming after going 6-1 in one-possession games and staying very healthy throughout the season.
Utah has a favorable schedule, but lost longtime coach Kyle Whittingham and offensive coordinator Jason Beck to Michigan in addition to all five starting offensive linemen, including a pair of tackles in the first round and two others who signed with NFL teams.
I also still have questions about a defense that had its worst year under Morgan Scalley and lost some of its best players to the Wolverines.
Arizona brings back Noah Fifita for his third year as a starting quarterback, but the Wildcats lost five defensive backs to the NFL. Yes, five!
As a result, their defense likely takes a major step back, and I doubt they will have another season with a +18 turnover margin.
Lastly, they certainly didn't win the Big 12 schedule lottery with meetings against five of the top seven, including road games against Texas Tech, BYU and Kansas State in a brutal spot.
That leaves my pick as a potential sleeper: TCU, which has quietly won nine games in back-to-back seasons.
The Horned Frogs are a developmental team that's not portal-reliant (may only start three transfers) under Sonny Dykes.
However, Dykes did go to the portal to find a replacement for quarterback Josh Hoover (Indiana) and brought in Jaden Craig from Harvard.
Craig has an NFL arm with plus mobility and should thrive in a brand new offensive scheme under new coordinator Gordon Sammis, who runs a lot more under-center NFL stuff with pre-snap motion and multiple-personnel sets.
If some of the young wide receivers can emerge to help replace Eric McAlister, this offense has a high ceiling.
Now, the defense does lose a trio of very good linebackers to the NFL, so that position remains a major question mark.
They will also need some younger guys (see: Gil Jackson) to step up in the secondary after losing a pair of starters to the league who had seven combined seasons of starting experience in Channing Canada and safety Bud Clark.
The latter will be the toughest to replace, especially since his projected replacement, Jacob Fields (Louisiana Tech transfer), recently got kicked off the team for beating up one of the potential starting wide receivers (not great!).
However, if the development pipeline translates to on-field success, the Horned Frogs could find themselves in Arlington.
It's also nice to have a very manageable first eight games to provide a nice runway for a new offensive scheme and for some of the younger players to get their feet wet with increased snap counts.
If Craig hits at QB, TCU could potentially start out 8-0 before a tough final four-game stretch. It's certainly not an easy league schedule, but the Horned Frogs could get a leg up in that second tier by beating both Utah and BYU at home.
For what it's worth, I did bet Kansas State to win the Big 12 earlier in the summer in large part due to its extremely favorable schedule and the potential for Avery Johnson to break out under new head coach Collin Klein, who I rate highly.
However, given the recent crippling offensive line injuries, I'd probably stay away at this point.
I also have a Texas Tech ticket at even money. Similar to Miami, it's hard to envision the Red Raiders (who also have an enormous financial advantage over the rest of the league) not getting to the conference title with their talent level and laughably easy schedule.
Hopefully, I'll have a chance to decide whether or not I want to go for a middle or let it ride when the time comes.
Other Looks: Texas Tech to Win Big 12
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Conference USA Win Total
Kennesaw State Under 6.5 Wins (-110)
I'm a major seller of Kennesaw State, which checks the boxes of every potential red flag for a team that's due to take a major step back following a surprise conference title.
Following an 0-2 start, the Owls rattled off wins in nine of their next 10 games, capped off by a victory over Jacksonville State to win the CUSA Championship.
However, there was plenty of smoke and mirrors for a team that actually got outgained in league play.
For starters, they finished with a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (all against CUSA opponents), which doesn't even include a very poorly officiated game in their favor in a 13-point win over lowly UTEP in a statistically even contest.
Their offense was also extremely reliant on explosive plays, which is hard to duplicate, especially after losing every important contributor.
The Owls lost their quarterback to Syracuse in addition to their top nine rushers (including one to the NFL) and top four receivers, with the two best leaving for the Big Ten and NFL.
They only bring back three of their top 13 offensive players in terms of snap count, and that trio consists of two poor tackles and a pedestrian tight end.
Everything else from the interior offensive line — a unit that lost three all-conference players — to every skill position must be replaced, primarily with lower-level transfers.
The one exception is at quarterback, where Rickie Collins comes in from Syracuse in what turned out to basically be an offseason QB swap.
More often than not, these power conference transfer signal-callers that transfer down don't work out, and I'm not fond of Collins at all.
The defense does have a bit more returning experience with six of the top 15 coming back, but there are potential major gaps along the defensive line (the pass rush is a concern following the departures of Elijah Hill and Tylon Dunlap) and at cornerback.
While the linebacker room remains a team strength, I'm not sold on the rest of this unit, which will severely miss its two starting corners, JeRico Washington Jr. (now with Boise) and Caleb Offord (signed with the Raiders).
I'm also not in love with their transfer haul on this side of the ball.
While Kennesaw does get to host Liberty, Delaware and Jacksonville State, I'm still selling all of the Owls' stock in 2026 even if I hate betting unders in the unpredictable CUSA since someone has to win these games.
Other Looks: Delaware to Win CUSA (+790)
MAC Win Totals, Futures
See MAC Manifesto.
Mountain West Win Total
Hawaii Under 7.5 Wins (-140)
I don't have high hopes for the Rainbow Warriors in 2026.
Yes, Micah Alejado comes back at quarterback, but he still carries injury risk given his size, and the backup QB situation looks pretty bleak.
Fortunately for Hawaii, the two games he missed last season came against Sam Houston and Portland State.
It's a dream schedule, as Hawaii avoids Air Force (my pick to win the league) and gets to host all of the other top contenders on the island in UNLV, New Mexico and North Dakota State.
That means it has a very manageable road league slate that includes Wyoming, UTEP, Nevada and Northern Illinois (although that's a tough travel and situational spot following the New Mexico game before its second bye week).
While the schedulers gave Hawaii a gift in 2026, I'm still a seller, as everything else worries me about this team that ranks outside the top 100 in returning production following the loss of seven multi-year starters on defense and four on offense.
The special teams should also decline precipitously following the loss of an All-American kicker who made 25-of-26 field goals in 2025.
Among the key returners, there are already a few injury questions heading into the season, starting with star wide receiver Pofele Ashlock, who the Bows need to shine following the departures of fellow wideouts Jackson Harris (LSU) and Brandon White (Kansas State).
Landon Sims will also be sorely missed in the backfield after three productive seasons, and I don't have much confidence in the offensive line.
Defensively, Hawaii got decimated along the defensive line and in the secondary with the following primary contributors now gone:
- S Peter Manuma (four-year starter; signed with Patriots)
- S Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen (two-year starter)
- CB Virdel Edwards II (three-year starter)
- CB Jaheim Wilson-Jones
- DT De'Jon Benton
- DT Qwyn Williams
- DE Jackie Johnson III (two-year starter)
- DE Tariq Jones (four-year contributor)
Benton and Johnson will be especially missed up front after they both piled up over 40 pressures in 2025. Nobody else on the team reached 20 (the departed Williams ranked third with 19).
I do like Elijah Palmer, who returns to man the slot, but there are also questions at linebacker following the graduation of three-year starter Jalen Smith and injury concerns surrounding Jamih Otis, who they need to be 100% healthy.
And it's not like they brought in a ton of talent on this side of the ball.
You can make a case that Hawaii is worse this year at every single position group outside of quarterback.
And while the league schedule is dreamy, the Bows have two road dates with P4 opponents and face zero FCS opponents after facing a pair in 2025.
They also have one fewer home game this season and play four teams coming off bye weeks, which doesn't help matters. I don't see the Warriors matching or exceeding last year's eight wins.
Other Looks: Air Force to Win Mountain West (+650)
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Pac-12 Futures
Texas State to Win Pac-12 (+680)
Boise State is the class of the league, but the Broncos have to face someone from the new-look Pac-12 in the title game. My pick is the Bobcats, who will be transitioning from the Sun Belt.
Part of this decision had to do with the fact that I'm lower than others on Fresno State, and I believe the San Diego State defense (which carried the Aztecs last year) takes a monumental step back.
Nobody else really intrigues me from a futures standpoint.
So, why Texas State? Well, I'm still a believer in head coach GJ Kinne, who will have the benefit of another year with stud quarterback Brad Jackson and a dynamic wide receiver duo of Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr.
Those two were the only teammates in the country to cross the 1,00-yard receiving mark in 2025, and both return as seniors. This passing offense should cook on a weekly basis in a conference full of questionable secondaries.
Now, there are questions at running back after the loss of Lincoln Pare (was with the Colts), which the Bobcats will likely have to answer by committee.
Additionally, there are plenty of unknowns along an offensive line that may have four new starters since guard Justin DeLeon has been nursing an injury in camp. That may leave the job up front to Sully Burns (who will transition from right to left tackle) and a host of transfers and younger guys.
It even looks like Fort Lewis State transfer Mikel Udengwu may surprisingly start at center. And you will also likely see Jaylen Early (Florida State/Missouri) and William Boone (UNC/Prairie View) in there.
Fortunately, Kinne and company have usually excelled at reloading their offensive lines, and there's certainly no shortage of bulk from a group that will need to replace the production of center Brock Riker (Penn State), left guard Emeka Obigbo and three-year starting left tackle Dorion Strawn.
While there could be some growing pains up front, this offense should cook, especially if some of the younger receivers, like four-star Lakeyleon Graves and Dameon Crowe from Texas State's best recruiting class in program history, can step up and provide adequate depth behind Sparks, Dawn and incoming Arizona State transfer Zechariah Sample.
The primary concern in San Marcos will once again come on the defensive side of the ball.
The Bobcats had another porous defense in 2025 that was an all-or-nothing unit that lived and died by trying to create Havoc, which ultimately led to far too many explosive plays.
As a result, Kinne finally pulled the plug and revamped most of the defensive staff, seeking a more disciplined scheme that doesn't sell out for splash plays.
The defense does lose 10 of the top-15 in snap counts, although two of its better players in linebacker Treylin Payne and defensive end Tymere Jackson could end up playing due to recent court rulings.
One or both would provide a nice boost to a group that will be extremely reliant on youth (look out for redshirt freshman Jayden Bradley, who will likely start at safety) and transfers from various levels.
Maybe the offensive line flops and the defensive changes lead to no material improvement, in which case Texas State will likely not reach the Mountain West title game.
However, I think the upside of a new-and-improved defense (especially since I like a handful of the incoming transfers) with some of the exciting freshmen on the roster makes the Bobcats a viable future in the Pac-12.
That's especially true with one of the most potent passing attacks in the league that should enjoy plenty of matchup advantages in league play.
Now, they do have to go on the road to face both San Diego State and Boise State. That's not ideal, but hopefully they can find a way to split those two to stay alive in the fight.
And it wouldn't hurt if a few close games broke their way following a season in which they finished 1-4 in one-possession games, including two losses in overtime.
They were just a few bounces away from potentially playing for a conference title, which could have led to Kinne getting poached by a bigger program.
SEC Win Total
Texas A&M Under 8.5 Wins (-110)
Going into last year, I loved the Aggies, who I bet to make the College Football Playoff in large part due to one of the strongest and most experienced offensive lines in the country.
Well, I've completely reversed my stance in 2026, even if it pains me to fade Mike Elko.
It all starts once again with the offensive line, which I believe takes a massive step back following the loss of four starters who all got drafted after combining for 190 FBS starts.
There's no shortage of oil money in College Station, so Texas A&M predictably hit the portal hard to find new starters up front.
However, I just wasn't a fan of the former SEC transfers they brought in from LSU, Alabama and South Carolina — three offensive lines that struggled immensely in 2025.
The guys they brought in particularly struggled in the run-blocking department, which spells bad news for an offense that needs the ground game to thrive to set up play-action for quarterback Marcel Reed.
If opposing defenses don't respect the A&M rushing attack, the mistakes will pile up for Reed, who was nearly flawless with play-action in 2025, throwing 17 touchdowns to one interception with a 74% completion percentage.
Those numbers fell off a cliff without play-action: 8:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a 56% completion percentage and a very concerning 7:18 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate.
And if the Aggies aren't churning out consistent yards on early downs, it will lead to a major uptick in known passing situations with a much shakier offensive line.
That could spell more trouble for Reed, who has yet to show he can deal with pressure. Last season, he had 18 big-time throws and 22 turnover-worthy plays under pressure (and that ratio declines to 14:21 if you remove the non-P4 games).
To make matters worse, A&M lost offensive coordinator Collin Klein and will now have a first-time play caller who will have to make do without the electric KC Concepcion at wide receiver.
The defense also lost six players to the NFL, four of whom got drafted.
The secondary should remain salty, but it must replace its top cornerback (fourth-round draft pick) and a player who thrived in the important nickel role in Elko's defense.
I'm especially concerned about the defensive line following the losses of Cashius Howell (Round 2) and a pair of extremely productive interior defensive linemen selected in the third round. They also lost their top overall linebacker to the league.
That's a lot of talent and production out the door for a unit that likely won't finish with an FBS-leading 23% opponent third-down conversion rate.
Major steps back in the trenches on both sides of the ball will prove costly, but there are plenty of other signs pointing down for the Aggies in 2026.
They went 4-0 in one-possession games during the regular season. In those games, they converted 80% of their fourth-down attempts, while their opponents went just 5-of-15 (33.3%).
Don't be surprised if that close-game luck flips this season, especially against a much tougher slate that only includes four SEC home games.
Last year, the Aggies benefited from facing seven of the bottom nine SEC teams. Only six other SEC teams besides Texas A&M finished with a winning league record in 2026.
A&M only faced one (Texas) and lost. This year, it's projected to face six ranked teams in SEC play, in addition to an always tough trip to Columbia to face a South Carolina team that already has that game circled after blowing a 30-0 halftime lead in College Station last year.
The final five games are especially daunting. In fairness, the Aggies do get two scheduling breaks that could work in their favor:
- at LSU (comes after the Tigers play one of the most hyped games of the season at Ole Miss)
- at South Carolina (tricky spot but at least comes after their bye week)
Finally, I doubt A&M will enjoy the same level of good fortune on the injury front. Of the 13 offensive players who logged at least 300 snaps in 2025, 11 played all 13 games and the other two played in 12.
And while Reed has his limitations, the backup situation is very suspect if he were to miss time.
The same goes for the defense, which saw 12 of the 13 players with 300-plus snaps play in all 13 games, with the lone exception playing in 12.
I'm selling the Aggies, who saw a school-record 10 players get drafted (and lost six in total on both offense and defense to the NFL) and both coordinators leave in the offseason.
If the offensive line takes a major step back as I'm expecting, the entire operation could fall apart. This is a seven- or eight-win team, in my humble opinion.
Other Looks: Missouri Under 6.5 Wins (and Under 4.5 SEC Wins) · Kentucky Over 4.5 Wins · Georgia to Make SEC Championship (+115)
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Sun Belt Win Total
James Madison Under 8.5 Wins (+125)
I might be on an island with this one, but I'm fading Billy Napier in his return to the Sun Belt.
Yes, Napier enjoyed immediate success when he took over as head coach in his first SBC stint at Louisiana, but it certainly helped to have a few future NFL starting offensive linemen right off the bat.
This won't be as easy in Year 1 with a roster that returns only three starters after Bob Chesney left for UCLA and took a boatload of his players with him to Westwood.
On offense, 13
of the top 14 in snap counts departed. Nine of those transferred to P4 schools (five to UCLA) and one signed an NFL contract. Whoever wins the still-ongoing quarterback competition will almost undoubtedly be a downgrade from Alonza Barnett III (UCF).
The skill positions also took a major hit with portal departures and the offensive line has question marks all over outside of center Zach Greenberg.
It's a similar story on defense after the Dukes lost 12 of their top 14 in snap counts. Six of those 14 transferred up to P4 schools (four to UCLA), and three others signed NFL contracts.
The defensive line should still remain stout against the run, but I'm extremely worried about every position in the defensive backfield, especially since JMU likely won't have the same pass-rushing prowess as last season.
The Dukes have the most resources in the league, so it's no surprise Napier did well in the portal. However, he did focus primarily on younger guys from lower levels who have experience. Therefore, the payoff may be strongest next season following a year of adjusting to the FBS ranks.
There could certainly be growing pains along the way this year with a brand-new staff and roster (136th in returning production; 33rd last year), especially in the secondary and along the offensive line.
During the last coaching change (from Curt Cignetti to Bob Chesney), the Dukes finished 4-4 in league play. I wouldn't be shocked if we see that again in Napier's first year in Harrisonburg.
Plus, there are three tricky nonconference games:
- vs. Liberty in Week 1 (the Flames should be much improved)
- at San Diego State (tough travel spot before facing rival ODU on the road)
- at UConn (get a brand new Huskies team late in the year, which will mark their 11th straight game before a late bye)
The league road slate also isn't a cakewalk with Georgia Southern (third road game in four weeks), Old Dominion (after SDSU trip) and Appalachian State.
The Dukes also host Marshall (my pick to win the Belt) in a tricky spot following road dates with SDSU and ODU. There are four to five losses on this schedule and maybe five to six if a QB room with no FBS experience doesn't work out.
Other Looks: Coastal Carolina Under 5.5 Wins · Southern Miss Under 3.5 Wins · Marshall +1100 to win SBC · Arkansas State +1200 to Win SBC
