The 2026 college football season is here, and that means it's time to find the best value across futures markets.
Our staff is targeting their favorite regular season win total futures to get your college football betting board set for our new campaign.
So, below you will find the top 2026 college football futures, picks and odds.
2026 College Football Win Total Futures
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Texas A&M Aggies Under 8.5 Wins (-120)
By: Stuckey
Going into last year, I loved the Aggies, who I bet to make the College Football Playoff in large part due to one of the strongest and most experienced offensive lines in the country.
Well, I've completely reversed my stance in 2026, even if it pains me to fade Mike Elko.
Once again, it all starts with the offensive line, which I believe will take a massive step back following the loss of four starters who all got drafted after combining for 190 FBS starts.
There's no shortage of oil money in College Station, so Texas A&M predictably hit the portal hard to find new starters up front. However, I just wasn't a fan of the former SEC transfers the Aggies brought in from LSU, Alabama and South Carolina — three offensive line that struggled immensely in 2025.
The guys they brought in particularly struggled in the run-blocking department, which spells bad news for an offense that needs the ground game to thrive to set up play action for Marcel Reed.
If opposing defenses don't respect the A&M rushing attack, the mistakes will pile up for Reed, who was nearly flawless on play action in 2025 (17 TD-1 INT with a 74% completion percentage).
Those numbers fell off a cliff without play action: 8-11 TD-INT ratio with a 56% completion percentage and a very concerning 7-18 Big Time Throw-Turnover Worthy Play ratio.
And if the Aggies aren't churning out consistent yards on early downs, it'll lead to a major uptick in known passing situations with a much shakier offensive line. That could spell more trouble for Reed, who has yet to show he can deal with pressure.
Last season, he had 18 Big Time Throws and 22 Turnover Worthy Plays under pressure (and that ratio declines to 14-21 if you remove the non-Power 4 games).
To make matters worse, A&M lost offensive coordinator Collin Klein and will now have a first-time play caller who will have to make do without the electric KC Concepcion at wide receiver.
The defense also lost six players to the NFL (four of whom got drafted). The secondary should remain solid, but they must replace their top corner (fourth-round draft pick) and a player (signed with NFL team) who thrived in the important nickel role in Elko's defense.
I'm especially concerned about the defensive line following the losses of Cashius Howell (second round) and a pair of extremely productive interior defensive linemen selected in the third round.
They also lost their top overall linebacker to the league.
That's a lot of talent and production out the door for a unit that likely won't finish with an FBS-leading 23% opponent third-down conversion rate.
Major steps back in the trenches on both sides of the ball will prove costly, but there are plenty of other signs pointing down for the Aggies in 2026.
They went 4-0 in one-possession games during the regular season in 2025. In those games, they converted 80% of their fourth-down attempts, while their opponents went just 5-15 (33.3%).
Don't be surprised if that close-game luck flips this season, especially against a much tougher slate that only includes four SEC home games.
Last year, the Aggies benefited from facing seven of the bottom nine SEC teams. Only six other SEC teams besides A&M finished with a winning league record in 2026. A&M only faced one and lost (Texas).
This year, they're projected to face six ranked teams in SEC play, in addition to an always tough trip to Columbia to face a South Carolina team that already has that game circled after blowing a 30-0 halftime lead in College Station last year.
The final five games are especially daunting. In fairness, they do get two scheduling breaks that could work in their favor:
- at LSU (comes after the Tigers play one of the most hyped games of the season at Ole Miss)
- at South Carolina (tricky spot but at least comes after their bye week)
Finally, I doubt A&M will enjoy the same level of good fortune on the injury front. Of the 13 offensive players who logged at least 300 snaps in 2025, 11 played all 13 games and the other two played in 12.
And while Reed has his limitations, the backup situation is very suspect if he were to miss time.
The same goes for the defense, which saw 12 of the 13 players with 300-plus snaps play in all 13 games with the lone exception playing in 12.
I'm selling the Aggies, who saw a school-record 10 players get drafted (and lost six in total on both offense and defense to the NFL) and both coordinators leave in the offseason.
If the offensive line takes a major step back — as I'm expecting — the entire operation could fall apart.
This is a seven- or eight-win team in my humble opinion.
Pick: Texas A&M Under 8.5 Regular Season Wins (-120)
North Texas Mean Green Under 5.5 Wins (+110)
By: Kyle Hunter
North Texas had an almost unheard-of power ratings downgrade, and the people who try to handicap based off of last year are in major trouble.
Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker are in Stillwater now. Meanwhile, Neal Brown steps in as the head coach of the Mean Green.
North Texas had the 137th-rated recruiting class out of 138 teams this year. The Mean Green tried to do their work in the portal, but they didn’t get enough high-end guys. A lot of their portal pickups are players who didn’t start at their previous stops, so a huge drop off is coming here.
The North Texas offensive line looks a massive weakness, and there are a lot of strong defensive fronts on its schedule that will take advantage of that problem.
Jahiem White is a good running back, and the Mean Green want to run the football. The problem is: if you have arguably the worst offensive front in the conference, it'll be tough to lean on the run game.
Tayven Jackson has some big play potential at quarterback, but he's going to take a lot of big hits.
My numbers have North Texas as an underdog of more than three points in seven games. I have the Mean Green favored by more than a touchdown just three times all season.
I’m higher than the market on both Tulsa and Florida Atlantic, so I think those two “winnable” games will be more difficult than most believe.
I think it's likely North Texas starts 0-3, and a 4-8 season looks more likely than 6-6.
The lack of depth in the trenches should hold the Mean Green back significantly, so I’ll take the under here at a plus-money price.
Pick: North Texas Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins (+110)
Missouri State Bears Under 4.5 Wins (-170)
By: Joshua Nunn
Missouri State overperformed expectations drastically in its inaugural season at the FBS level.
The defense was the surprise story of the season. Despite a step up in competition, the Bears posted three-year bests in points allowed per game, yards allowed per game and rushing defense.
Fueled by that defense, Missouri State won seven of its nine games in the middle of the season.
But the performances in its six losses were bad. The Bears gave up 500 yards and 42.2 points per game in their five defeats and now have to completely revamp that side of the ball.
Missouri State is also experiencing a coaching change. Former head coach Ryan Beard left for Coastal Carolina, opening the door for Casey Woods, who has no prior head-coaching experience.
Consistency at the quarterback position will be tested this year with the departure of second-all-time leading passer Jacob Clark, along with major losses at running back, receiver and all five starters on the offensive line.
This is going to be a tough year for Missouri State unless the Bears continue to overperform far beyond their talent level.
UTEP transfer Skyler Locklear won the quarterback competition, but he doesn’t give me the confidence needed to believe the Bears will consistently score points.
The offensive line protecting him was one of the worst in the country last year, surrendering 52 sacks and 112 tackles for loss. Expecting much more than incremental improvement with a bunch of new faces is a tall order.
Schedule-wise, it’s almost unfair. It's unbelievably brutal, with two Power 4 road trips to Texas A&M and SMU, along with a Group-of-6 home game against Marshall, which will be coming in with revenge after completely blowing a game that ended up costing the Herd bowl eligibility last year.
I'd be stunned by any result other than 1-3 in the non-conference slate.
Conference play features a 19-day stretch with four games after the bye week. This level of compression could cause a team with evident depth questions to run out of gas.
The Bears will be heavy underdogs in every road game this season, and I have them favored just three times this season.
I played under the win total of 4.5 early in the summer and would continue to lean that way.
Pick: Missouri State Under 4.5 Regular Season Wins (-170)
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Sacramento State Hornets Under 4.5 Wins (-105)
By: Road to CFB
Those of us on top of offseason regular-season win totals saw Sacramento State lined at 5.5 and immediately jumped on the opportunity for the under.
Now at under 4.5 (-105), it’s still a play for another half-win (or odds better than -150).
Circumstantially, Sacramento State’s jump to the FBS could be an immediate — if not temporary — disaster.
The Hornets lost head coach Brennan Marion and his Go-Go offense to Colorado this offseason during the process of the elevation to FBS.
On one hand, the move to Colorado — even as offensive coordinator — is a promotion with a bigger paycheck. On the other, Marion likely figured this roster wasn’t one to make an immediate impact at the next level.
He also took the team’s top rushers with him.
New head coach Alonzo Carter loaded up on unproven power-conference transfers, a move that has yet to really shine as a winning strategy. QB Carson Conklin returns after a year’s hiatus at Fresno State, but the 6-foot-1, 175-pound passer is a bit underwhelming.
The real issue is this: Sacramento State paid a fortunate to move up to the FBS ($23 million just for the FBS and MAC join fees) and shoulders an enormous burden in covering all travel costs – not just for themselves, but for all visiting teams.
Sacramento State forfeits all conference TV revenue until at least 2031, and it was already turned down due to a lack of interest on more than one occasion. Yikes.
It likely wins two games by October (MVSU, UMass), but any wins beyond that are far from guaranteed.
Pick: Sacramento State Under 4.5 Regular Season Wins (-105)
Michigan Wolverines Under 8.5 Wins (-180)
By: Kody Malstrom
It’s well documented how much I love Kyle Whittingham as a head coach, so it pains me to fade him in his first year at Michigan.
To no fault of his own, the lack of development at quarterback handicaps the Wolverines' ceiling, with Bryce Underwood showing no signs of progression during their spring and summer scrimmages.
The Wolverines were abysmal on offense last season, finishing the year ranked near the bottom of the board in Pass Success Rate, PPA and Explosiveness.
While they did fare far better on the ground, Underwood’s inability to throw over the top allowed opposing defenses to cheat by stacking the box, making it difficult for them to sustain their drives.
Until Underwood shows he can successfully air out the ball, the Wolverines will continue to struggle to compete with the top of the conference.
Their defense can only take them so far, yet the amount of variance their offense will have to combat against is far too much for them to rattle off a successful season.
Speaking of the top of the conference, the Wolverines draw the short end of the stick in regard to their schedule, facing off against Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon this season.
The Wolverines are also projected to be a coin flip against Penn State and Oklahoma, two potential losses that will drastically increase the probability of cashing the under on their win total.
Place a full unit on the under of 8.5 at their lofty odds and sprinkle some couch change on their alt of 7.5 as well.
Pick: Michigan Under 8.5 Regular Season Wins (-180)
Texas State Bobcats Over 6.5 Wins
By: Mike Ianniello
Texas State moves from the Sun Belt to the Pac-12 this season and is in a great position to compete for the conference title right away. The Bobcats enter the season fourth in odds to win the conference, but for my money, they have the best quarterback in the league.
Quarterback Brad Jackson threw for over 3,200 yards and 21 touchdowns while completing over 71% of his passes in 2025. He also added 744 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing. He's one of the most dangerous dual-threat weapons in the Group of 6.
Jackson will return alongside his two leading receivers, Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr., who each topped 1,000 yards receiving last season.
The Bobcats were fifth in the entire country in total yards per game last season, and GJ Kinne and offensive coordinator Landon Keopple should have another elite unit this season.
The defense took a slight step forward last season from 2024, but it'll need to take an even bigger one in 2026.
Will Windham was brought in as the new defensive coordinator after two years running the South Alabama defense. He'll have four returning starters to work with, led by safety Ryan Nolan.
The defensive line should improve against the run, with Jo’Laison Landry returning after missing all of last year with an injury and Arizona transfer Chancellor Owens.
Looking at the Texas State schedule, the Bobs get seven home games in San Marcos and five road trips.
If they just win all their home games, they will go over their win total. They should be at least a touchdown favorite in every home game outside of the home opener against UTSA, which has been a completely different team on the road.
The road schedule is tough, but even those are still only coin flips. There isn’t a game on this schedule they can't win after the opener against Texas.
The key to betting a Pac-12 win total this season is to make sure you're taking it at a book that grades after 12 games, such as FanDuel, as the conference is playing an unscheduled flex game the final week.
I'm confident that Texas State will reach this total before that game anyway, but I would like to have it count just in case.
Even with it being on the road, we already know that game will either be against Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State or Washington State, all of whom I would take the Bobs over.
Texas State is going to be a fun team to watch this season and potentially the best group that Kinne has had.
Look for Jackson and Co. to lead the Bobcats over this win total.
Pick: Texas State Over 6.5 Regular Season Wins
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