Baylor vs TCU Prediction: Back the Big Favorite
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: TCU RB Emani Bailey.
Baylor vs. TCU Prediction
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
Two Texas schools trying to break losing skids face off in Big 12 competition on Saturday as Baylor makes the hour-and-a-half drive north to Fort Worth.
Baylor (3-7) is riding a three-game losing streak. The Bears are 2-7-1 against the spread and have gone under in five games this season.
TCU (4-6) has also lost their last three games. They are 4-6 against the spread and have gone under in seven games this season.
Weather should have no impact. Temperatures are forecast to range from 62-68 degrees during the game with light winds around 4 mph.
Read on for our Baylor vs TCU Prediction.
Dave Aranda's fourth season in Waco isn't going according to plan.
With just two games left on the schedule, the Bears will be sitting at home during bowl season regardless of how they finish out the season. Baylor is averaging 22.9 points per game and 5.3 yards per play. The offense has a 39% success rate and scores just 2.96 points per opportunity.
After missing some time at the beginning of the season, Blake Shapen is the team's leading passer with 1,991 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He's completed 61.2% of his passes for an average of 7.4 yards per attempt. As a team, Baylor has a 38% passing success rate.
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While the passing game is clearly not the main concern, the team appears to lack a true playmaker on the offense as nine Bears have at least 10 receptions but none with more than 35.
The running game is led by Dominic Richardson, one of several backs the Bears have utilized this season. Richardson has 98 carries and is averaging 4.4 yards per attempt, but he's failed to find the end zone this season.
As a team, Baylor has a 41% rushing success rate and averages 3.7 attempts per game that are over 10 yards. The offensive line generates 2.99 line yards per attempt and has allowed an 18.6% stuff rate.
The defense is at the center of Baylor's issues. They allow 32.4 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. Opponents have a 44% success rate, which ranks 103rd, and have scored 4.02 points per opportunity, which ranks 94th. The Bears allow 4.9 plays per game of more than 20 yards.
The one positive for Baylor's defense is its 18% Havoc rate.
Following a National Championship appearance in the 2022 season, it's safe to say that this year is not going according to plan in Sonny Dykes' second year with the program.
The Horned Frogs are averaging 28.9 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. They rank 20th in offensive success rate at 47%, but they've struggled to finish drives with just 3.58 points per opportunity.
With QB Chandler Morris out with injury, Josh Hoover has stepped into the starting role. He's completing 61.1% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempts. He's thrown for 1,450 yards and nine touchdowns, but he's struggled with turnovers as he has eight interceptions.
As a team, TCU has a 47% passing success rate and they average 3.9 completions per game of at least 20 yards.
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TCU's rush rate of 43% ranks 155th nationally despite being relatively efficient in running the ball. The Frogs average 34.7 rush attempts per game.
The backfield is led by Emani Bailey, who has 186 rush attempts for an average of 5.4 yards per carry. He has 1,006 rushing yards and five touchdowns. As a team, TCU has a 49% rushing success rate, which ranks 16th nationally. The offensive line generates 3.43 line yards per attempt and allows a 12.3% stuff rate.
TCU's defense is allowing 24.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. It allows a 41% success rate and 3.44 points per opportunity.
One of the primary issues for the defense has been its inability to create negative plays; TCU ranks 119th with a 13% Havoc rate.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and TCU match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. TCU Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 75 |
TCU Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 115 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 106 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 117 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 93 | 89 |
| PFF Coverage | 98 | 74 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 66 | 72 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 108 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (48) | 21.4 (2) |
| Rush Rate | 46.2% (117) | 45.7% (118) |
Baylor vs. TCU
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Frogs are a near two-touchdown favorite and the public is heavily backing them. Approximately 85% of bets and 73% of the money is on TCU to cover the spread.
The 58.5 total has strongly pointed to big-money bettors favoring the under — 71% of bets are on the over, but 98% of the money is on the under. Some sharp money has been tracked on the over, but the big bets are on the under.
My preferred play is to back the favorite. TCU holds advantages on both offense and defense and Baylor's inability to score could prove to be the key in this game.
Pick: TCU -13 (Play to -16.5)
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