The biggest betting storyline heading into Week 2 of the college football season is the dramatic swing in the North Carolina–Charlotte point spread.
North Carolina opened as a 21.5-point favorite on Sunday, but bettors immediately started fading the Tar Heels. By Tuesday morning, the number had dropped to 19.5 and by Tuesday night, it was down to 12.5. As of now, UNC sits as a 13.5-point favorite — a full eight-point move from the opener.
The move comes after a brutal Week 1 debut for Bill Belichick at the college level. North Carolina closed as a 3.5-point home underdog to TCU and even jumped out to a 7-0 lead, but ultimately lost 48-14. It was the most points Belichick has ever allowed as a head coach in either college or the pros.
This is part of a troubling trend for Tar Heel backers. Since the start of last season, North Carolina is 3-11 against the spread (ATS) in 14 games — tied for the worst mark in the country over that span.
According to Bet Labs, UNC would be just the third team in the last 20 years to open as a favorite in their second game of the season and see their line move 8+ points in the opposite direction:
- 2017 Kent State: Lost 56-3 as a 38-point underdog in the opener vs. No. 5 Clemson. Opened -34 the next week vs. Howard, closed -26, and won by only 7.
- 2013 Texas A&M: Opened -45 vs. Sam Houston State after a 21-point win over Rice as a 28-point favorite. Closed -35 and still covered, winning by 37.
Since 2005, only 15 teams have lost their opener, then entered Game 2 as a favorite with the spread moving 4+ points against them. Those teams have gone 5-9-1 ATS on the closing number.
The UNC-Charlotte swing represents the most significant market adjustment of the week — and one of the more notable in recent seasons. Whether this proves to be an overreaction to Belichick’s shaky debut or an accurate read on a struggling program remains to be seen, but the numbers show history is stacked against the Tar Heels covering in this spot.
