North Dakota State has been making unprecedented moves for the better part of 15 years at the FCS level, winning 10 FCS National Championships during that stretch.
The flagship program of FCS football has now decided to make the move to FBS. Effective this upcoming season, the Bison will play in the Mountain West as a football-only member.
There are varying opinions on whether or not this was the right move for the Bison. Will NDSU be able to compete annually while taking on the rigors of an FBS schedule? What will happen with other non-football sports sponsored by the athletic administration?
FCS football is near and dear to my heart. Let's take a look at how this move impacts the betting landscape, in addition to projecting how this will shake out on the field for NDSU this year.
North Dakota State's History of Winning
There's no secret that the North Dakota State fan base become accustomed to winning.
The Bison compiled a 144-24 record at home since the Fargodome opened in 1993, including a 38-2 record in the FCS Playoffs at home.
It’s a poorly kept secret that the fan base has seen apathy set in with the Bison. This program has been so completely dominant in the FCS for years, and people wanted more.
If you can believe it, there was some fan fatigue in winning so handily at this level of football.
Save for a few spirited contests played each year in conference play, the Bison are used to destroying competition played at this level in the non-conference, and the first few rounds of playoff competition have rarely provided a stiff challenge.
Illinois State defeated NDSU this year in the playoffs, but that was such a rare event to witness. The normal result for NDSU was blowouts by four or five scores on the regular.
Bison's Scheduling Issues
Scheduling became very difficult. Over the last 10 seasons, the Bison could only secure three dates with FBS competition:
- 2016 at Iowa: 23-21 win
- 2022 at Arizona: 31-28 loss
- 2024 at Colorado: 31-26 loss
North Dakota State gained its first victory over an FBS opponent in 2006 when the Bison defeated Ball State, 29-24. Since moving to FCS, the Bison have a 9-3 record over FBS competition, including six wins against Power 4 competition.
This program gained so much momentum so quickly that FBS programs fielding calls from the Bison looking to schedule non-conference bouts routinely hit the “decline” button.
As this team continued to win, the fan base and administration wanted more.
Performance on the field, along with a massive investment injected into the football program, made a move to the FBS level nearly inevitable.
NDSU has exquisite facilities for any level of football, and the Bison had a strong financial backing that put them in a position to make the move.
The program has plenty of donors who are motivated and excited to buy into this move. NDSU accumulates very little athletic money from student fees, and state funding is significantly lower than its counterparts that have moved up from FCS to FBS in recent years.
These strong financial backers were a big driver in NDSU having the opportunity to make this move and seeing the timeline for competing in the Mountain West.
Can North Dakota State Compete in Mountain West?
While I don't think NDSU is going to just roll into the Mountain West and destroy its competition right away, I do think this team is capable of winning a ton of games in Year 1.
If you were to take the composite Sagarin ratings for every team in the MW over the last 10 years, the Bison would rank at or near the top each year.
Remember, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State have all departed for the renovated Pac-12, creating a sixth non-P4 league.
While the Bison will be ineligible for the MW title and additional postseason play during their transition time, they'll play good football immediately. I anticipate 6-7 wins minimum for NDSU in Year 1.
How Does NDSU's Move Impact the FCS?
There are now 12 FCS schools scrambling to shore up scheduling for 2026, as the Missouri Valley Football Conference had just wrapped up scheduling for its members shortly before the decision was announced.
North Dakota State had four previously scheduled non-conference games against Incarnate Word, East Tennessee State, Central Arkansas and Austin Peay, in addition to a loaded conference slate.
I would guess most, or all, of these games won't take place as scheduled, so the MVFC will have to rework its conference schedule, and four non-conference opponents need another game to fill the slate.
This will be intriguing to watch as schedules get adjusted at both the FCS and FBS levels.
Why This Is a Good Move for North Dakota State
My personal opinion (coming from an FCS aficionado who loves the subdivision from a fan and betting standpoint) is that this will ultimately be a good move for the Bison.
NDSU will receive more TV exposure nationally, and the opportunity to play in bowl games and College Football Playoff games will be appealing for this fan base.
North Dakota State had struggled recently with home attendance in the regular season, and with fresh opponents and an increased level of competition coming to Fargo regularly, I think this move will reinvigorate the fan base.
I hate to see the Bison go, but it will be very fun to watch the development of the program from FCS to FBS. Trips to Hawaii, Vegas, Laramie and more will be awesome for the Bison and their fan base.
This move will also create betting opportunities to be discussed here at Action Network as we inch closer to the college football season.
I can't wait to see how the roster develops for this upcoming 2026 season. This move makes the Mountain West must-watch television for years to come.
