The Boise State Broncos take on the South Florida Bulls in Tampa, Florida, on Thursday, Aug. 28. Kickoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Boise State is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -218. USF, meanwhile, comes in at +180 to pull off the upset. The total is set at 62.5 points.
Here’s my Boise State vs. USF prediction and college football picks for Thursday, August 28.
Boise State vs USF Prediction
- Boise State vs. USF Pick: USF ML +190
My USF vs. Boise State best bet is on the Bulls to win this game outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Boise State vs USF Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -112 | 62.5 -112o / -108u | -218 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -108 | 62.5 -112o / -108u | +180 |
- Boise State vs USF point spread: Boise State -5.5 (-112), USF +5.5 (-108)
- Boise State vs USF over/under: 62.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Boise State vs USF moneyline: Boise State -238, USF +195
Boise State vs USF College Football Betting Preview
Boise State may not be a blue blood, but it's a big blue problem in the world of college football.
Since 2003, only Ohio State and Alabama have won more games than Boise. The Broncos' upset of Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl established them as a program to be taken seriously, and that wild win will live on forever.
Last season, after banging on the door for decades, the Broncos had a chance to play their way to a national title by making the College Football Playoff. Boise, while still a G5 program, is big-time through and through.
So naturally, it’s time for someone to knock it off its new perch. And South Florida is perfectly positioned to do so on Thursday night.
USF checks all the boxes for me as a bettor: high-end quarterback play, a unique offensive system, loads of experience and a distinct home-field advantage.
When healthy, quarterback Byrum Brown has it all. Art Briles once said that this offense is all about “haymakers to the final bell.” Well, Brown can create those knockout punches with his arm and his legs.
In his 20 career starts, he’s punished teams in a variety of ways.
He’s thrown for five touchdowns in a single game, exploded on the ground for 160 yards, all while absorbing big hits thanks to his massive frame at 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds.
Thankfully for USF backers, the Bulls' offensive line should be markedly improved. They return four starters and portaled in a few veteran linemen for depth.
Their wide receiver and running back rooms are deep and should give head coach Alex Golesh the explosive plays that they were sorely missing in 2024.
Two years ago, with a healthy Brown, the Bulls created 75 plays from scrimmage of 20-plus yards (20th). That number slipped to 63 last fall (53rd). With Brown wheeling and dealing again, I expect the fireworks to light up the Tampa sky.
If USF’s offense comes to play, a ton of pressure will be placed on Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen’s shoulders.
Last season, Boise’s QB1 put up decent numbers with defenses keyed in on star running back Ashton Jeanty. Despite loaded boxes, Jeanty ran roughshod over everyone, finishing second in the Heisman race.
Boise will still have a solid running game, but the Broncos’ explosive run percentage is likely to fall off a cliff. That means Madsen and a green play-caller will need to shine right away.
Nate Potter has never been a full-time playcaller, and he’s trying to fill the shoes of a coaching legend in Dirk Koetter. Long-term, it may work out. But on Thursday night, I’m expecting significant growing pains.
One final schematic note that I believe will be significant is Golesh’s veer-and-shoot alignment. He spreads his wide receivers all the way to the sidelines, which forces opposing defenses to spread the field as well.
Boise loves to blitz, often disguising its pressures or waiting until the last second to shift into a six- or seven-man rush. You simply can’t do that against the veer-and-shoot without it being obvious to a veteran quarterback.
So, if the Broncos maintain their high blitz rate, Brown could expose them as an elite dual-threat quarterback.
Boise State vs USF Pick, Betting Analysis
Field conditions, as of writing, should be hot and sticky at kickoff.
The on-field “feel” will be in the mid-90s, and thunderstorms could be peppering the area with rain.
Toss in a blackout game from the student section and all-black alternate uniforms for the Bulls, and it’s likely to feel like a funeral for the visiting Broncos. I would play this down to USF +150 on the moneyline.
Pick: USF ML +190 (Play to +150)
