The California Golden Bears take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in the Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu on Wednesday, Dec. 24. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Hawaii is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. Cal, meanwhile, enters as a +1 underdog and is -105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Cal vs. Hawaii prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, December 24.
Cal vs Hawaii Prediction
- Cal vs. Hawaii Pick: Hawaii -1
My Hawaii vs. Cal best bet is on the Rainbow Warriors to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Cal vs Hawaii Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
- Cal vs Hawaii Spread: Hawaii -1, Cal +1
- Cal vs Hawaii Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Cal vs Hawaii Moneyline: Cal -105, Hawaii -115
Cal vs Hawaii College Football Betting Preview
Cal Golden Bears Betting Preview: Struggles on Defense
Justin Wilcox was relieved of head coaching duties at the end of the season, leaving offensive coordinator Nick Rolovich as interim for the Hawaii Bowl.
Rolovich is no stranger to the island as a former head coach and quarterback of the Rainbow Warriors.
Even as Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi takes over head coaching duties, Rolovich will remain on staff as quarterbacks coach and assistant head coach.
Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is expected to remain with Cal through the 2026 season. The freshman ended his season with 28 big-time throws to 17 turnover-worthy plays, logging a mistake on only 4.3% of dropbacks with pressure.
The Bears boast a pass-heavy offense, ranking mid-FBS in Passing Success Rate. Wide receiver Jacob De Jesus has been the primary option for JKS with 142 targets and an explosive two yards per route run.
Wilcox was previously a defensive coordinator before taking on the Cal head coaching job, but the Bears defense lacked any substance in 2025.
Cal finished bottom-20 in tackle grading, per PFF, and also finished bottom-10 in Defensive Line Yards.
The good news is the pass defense, which ranked top-25 in Passing Success Rate allowed and coverage grading.
The defense has spent the majority of the season in Cover 3 and limiting explosives through the air, allowing just three opponent completions go for 40 yards this season.
Hawaii Warriors Betting Preview: Back on the Island
Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang was fantastic at home this season, falling to only Fresno State in the TC Ching Athletics Complex.
Quarterback Micah Alejado surpassed all 2024 totals en route to a 21-touchdown season. The sophomore has doubled his big-time throws compared to turnover-worthy plays despite seeing 127 pressures.
Alejado's mobility has been key in extending drives, as he scrambled for nearly 200 yards and eight first downs this season.
The most explosive target on the team will not be available, with Jackson Harris entering the transfer portal after scoring 12 touchdowns.
A pair of wideouts in Brandon White and Karsyn Pupunu will see increased snaps, but slot Pofele Ashlock continues to be the primary target in the passing game.
The Hawaii defense surprised in Mountain West play, generating top-45 rankings in numerous categories against the pass and in opponent scoring opportunities.
The Rainbow Warriors play an exclusive amount of quarters coverage, ranking 41st of all FBS teams in creating a contested catch. Opponents coming to the island this season averaged only 15 points per game.
Cal vs Hawaii Pick, Betting Analysis
Rolovich and Chang were teammates on the 2000 Hawaii team, so this game has special meaning to the former Rainbow Warrior quarterbacks.
There's no expectation of either team running up the score due to the respect the coaches have for each other. Plus, home games for Hawaii have been low-scoring all season.
Weather will impact the game, as crosswinds will be sustained at 15 miles per hour. This may limit special teams and explosives while favoring the team with the better tackling analytics.
Alejado was excellent against Cover 3 this season, generating a 55% Success Rate against the coverage. Sagapolutele wasn't as successful against Cover 3 with a 49% Success Rate.
With the Hawaii defense boasting the better contested catch rate, this could be a tougher challenge for the Bears.
The tackling metrics also favor Hawaii, as the offense ranks sixth nationally in creating broken and missed tackles. In fact, Ashlock and running back Landon Sims forced 22 missed tackles in passing plays this season.
The final note in favor of Hawaii comes in the form of special teams. SP+ ranks the Rainbow Warriors at eighth nationally against Cal's ranking of 68th.
Hawaii kicker Kansei Matsuzawa is a large part of the ranking, missing only one of his 26 field goals this season while going 11-for-11 attempts from beyond 40 yards.
Punter Billy Gowers was also notable in registering a field-position edge all season, placing 24 punts inside the 20-yard line and ranking seventh in Sports Info Solutions' punt efficiency.
Pick: Hawaii -1 or Better
