Georgia Tech vs. UCF Odds, Picks: Why to Bet Week 4’s Under (Sept. 24_

Georgia Tech vs. UCF Odds, Picks: Why to Bet Week 4’s Under (Sept. 24_ article feature image

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: John Rhys Plumlee (UCF)

  • Georgia Tech heads to the Bounce House on Saturday to face UCF.
  • The Bounce House may be rocking, but we expect both defenses to show up in this Week 4 matchup.
  • Check out Cody Goggin's top bet for Georgia Tech vs. UCF below.

Georgia Tech vs. UCF Odds

Saturday, Sept 24
4 p.m. ET
Georgia Tech Odds
-106o / -114u
UCF Odds
-106o / -114u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

If you’ve heard anything about the Georgia Tech program this season, chances are that it wasn’t something good.

Geoff Collins’ seat is burning, but there still may be time to salvage things. If this game goes poorly, he could be done in Atlanta by Monday.

UCF isn’t going to be competing for a national title this season, but it has looked respectable in its first couple of games.

A win against a Power Five opponent could mean a lot to its players and provide a boost for the program — even if that win is against a decrepit Georgia Tech team.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Yellow Jackets Offense

Georgia Tech’s offense has looked like absolute garbage for most of this season.

The good news for the Yellow Jackets is that those performances came against programs with massive talent advantages, like Clemson and Ole Miss. The Yellow Jackets likely aren’t good by any means, but I don't think things are as dire as they have looked thus far.

Against Clemson, which owns the No. 2 defense by SP+ and possibly the most talented defensive line in the country, the Yellow Jackets struggled to get anything going, posting just a 20th-percentile Offensive Success Rate.

Things went worse against Ole Miss’ No. 11 SP+ defense, as Georgia Tech had a seventh-percentile Success Rate.

The Jackets showed some semblance of life against Western Carolina, posting a 68th-percentile Success Rate. However, WCU has the No. 107 defense in FCS, per SP+.

With such wide variation in their opponents this season, it’s tough to know what to expect from this offense this weekend, but I doubt that the Yellow Jackets will be lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon.

Yellow Jackets Defense

Teams have had their way with the Georgia Tech defense so far in 2022. The Jackets rank 128th in Success Rate and are bad against both the run and the pass, ranking 128th and 109th, respectively.

In all three of their games this season, the opposing team posted a Success Rate in the 80th percentile or higher. 

Clemson and Ole Miss both have good offenses, ranking 34th and 13th in SP+. Even West Carolina has a sneaky good offense, ranking 14th at the FCS level, via SP+.

While UCF’s offense is not quite on the level of the two Power Five opponents that Georgia Tech has faced, this defense will likely not provide too much resistance.

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Central Florida Knights

Knights Offense

UCF enters the week ranking just 102nd in the country in Offensive Success Rate. This is entirely due to the Knights' lack of attack through the air, as they rank fifth in Rushing Success Rate and 129th in Passing Success Rate.

John Rhys Plumlee is electric on the ground for a quarterback, but has averaged -0.57 EPA per play through the air and has completed just 42% of his passes. This will end up becoming a massive issue for the Knights whenever they have to throw the ball to stay in games.

UCF’s offense is ranked 50th by SP+, but because of its passing ineptitude, I have my concerns that the unit is realistically worse than we think.

In UCF's two FBS games this year, it faced Louisville and FAU, which own the No. 74 and No. 89 defenses by SP+, respectively. In these two games, UCF managed Success Rates in the 36th and 23rd percentiles, respectively.

Luckily for the Knights, this Georgia Tech defense is putrid and not even on the level of these teams, so they shouldn’t have to face these issues this weekend.

File this in your memory bank and fade UCF appropriately in the future.

Knights Defense

The best unit on the field this weekend will without a doubt be UCF’s defense. The unit currently ranks 31st in the nation by SP+ and its Success Rate figures have been outstanding.

The Knights rank 13th in the country in Defensive Success Rate. UCF has the 32nd-best Success Rate against the pass and 15th-best against the run.

Louisville, which ranks 36th in SP+ offenses, had a 36th-percentile Offensive Success Rate when these two teams played. FAU’s 82nd-ranked offense fared even worse against the Knights with a seventh-percentile Success Rate. 

Since Georgia Tech’s offense is rated 85th by SP+, I see it having a similar outcome to FAU, which scored just 14 points against this team.

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Georgia Tech vs. UCF Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Tech and UCF match up statistically:

Georgia Tech Offense vs. UCF Defense
Rush Success9648
Line Yards10460
Pass Success12734
Pass Blocking**9234
Finishing Drives9841
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UCF Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
Rush Success38118
Line Yards2181
Pass Success97104
Pass Blocking**1687
Finishing Drives111102
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling5471
PFF Coverage7345
SP+ Special Teams116118
Seconds per Play25.6 (47)23.3 (18)
Rush Rate53.6% (67)58.4% (37)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Georgia Tech vs. UCF Betting Pick

I believe that UCF should be able to win this game handily, but if it does have to rely on the arm of Plumlee, then I am concerned.

For that reason, I believe it’s going to be safer to make a play on the under.

UCF’s defense is stout and will keep Georgia Tech in check for most of the day. UCF’s offense is okay and will be able to have a modest output, but it won’t be putting up numbers bigger to cover this total by itself.

UCF has gone under in both of its first two FBS matchups this year. The Knights hit the over against SC State, but even with how bad Georgia Tech is, SC State’s defense is much worse than that, so I wouldn’t expect UCF to hit 50 again.

Georgia Tech games are 2-0-1 to the under this season, as well.

All signs point to a low-scoring matchup. 56.5 points is a touch too high for these two teams, and I would take that all the way down to 52.5. 

Pick: Under 56.5 Points (Play to 52.5)

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