Kansas vs. West Virginia Odds, Picks: How to Bet Saturday’s Big 12 Showdown
Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ra’Mello Dotson (Kansas)
- The Kansas Jayhawks travel to Morgantown on Saturday for a Week 2 Big 12 showdown against the West Virginia Mountaineers.
- The over/under sits just shy of 60, and we see value on the over.
- Cody Goggin explains why in his full breakdown for Kansas vs. West Virginia below.
Kansas vs. West Virginia Odds
For years Kansas has been at the cellar of the Big 12 (and FBS for that matter), but Lance Leipold and Jalon Daniels are trying to pull the Jayhawks out. While they were still not good last year, there have been some signs of hope, and optimism has been slightly renewed in Lawrence.
West Virginia started off its season with a back-breaking loss to its rival Pittsburgh. We were able to get the first glimpse into what this new-look offense would do under JT Daniels and Graham Harrell.
Kansas was able to handle its FCS opponent easily last week, which is an improvement on what it has been able to do in years past. But this Saturday, we will get to see if the Jayhawks will stand any chance at being competitive in conference play in 2022.
In Week 1, Kansas was able to easily dispatch Tennessee Tech by a score of 56-10. In this game, the Jayhawks ranked in the 100th percentile in EPA/Play, Success Rate and yards per play in what was a dominant offensive performance.
For those of us that remember the last decade plus of Kansas football, this seems like a miracle. However, Tennessee Tech is among the worst teams in FCS, so not much can be taken from this game.
Last season, Kansas ranked 110th in Offensive Success Rate and it returns nine starters on this side of the ball.
Everything seemed to change for Kansas last season when Daniels came in at quarterback.
He had notable playing time in four games, and in these outings, Kansas averaged 30.75 points per game versus 15.75 points in games when he didn’t have more than 10 pass attempts.
Daniels led Kansas to a victory over Texas and lost to this West Virginia team by only six points.
The Jayhawks’ defense should be improved with eight starters returning from last year, but the unit will still be amongst the worst in FBS. The 2021 Kansas defense ranked 129th out of 130 teams in Defensive Success Rate, coming in at 130th against the pass and 129th versus the run.
In Week 1, West Virginia fell to Pittsburgh 38-31. The Mountaineers hung with the Panthers until the end and lost the game when an interception was returned for a touchdown off of the hands of their best wide receiver, Bryce Ford-Wheaton.
For much of the first half of this game, West Virginia struggled to move the ball. The Mountaineers’ offense either punted or turned over the ball on four of their first five drives.
Things did get back on track for them in the second half, though, as they were able to get back to 6.48 yards per play (78th percentile) and a 47th percentile Success Rate.
In his first game as a Mountaineer, Daniels went 23-of-40 for just 214 yards. While this wasn’t the most promising outcome, things will be much easier this week against a bad Kansas defense.
Last week, we saw Pittsburgh move the ball with relative ease, averaging 6.44 yards per play and 0.10 EPA per play while facing a West Virginia defense that returned only four starters from a season ago.
Kansas’ offense is likely not as good as Pittsburgh’s, but if the Jayhawks look even half as good as they did last week, we could see a potential shootout.
Kansas vs. West Virginia Betting Pick
The worst unit on the field in this matchup is undoubtedly Kansas’ defense. Neal Brown’s squad will likely be able to march up and down the field without much resistance.
Daniels didn’t have a great start last week, but as West Virginia continues to implement its new offense, we will likely keep seeing improvements from it.
Kansas’ offense is an enigma. It may be able to hang with West Virginia, or it may not. I’m not quite sure what to expect out of Daniels, so I’m not going to be taking the Mountaineers ATS.
Instead, I’m looking to take advantage of numbers on the West Virginia offense: the over, WVU team total over and player prop overs.