Stanford vs. Notre Dame Odds & Picks: Bet Saturday’s Over/Under
Via Icon Sportswire/Getty Images. Pictured: Tanner McKee (Stanford)
Stanford vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -115 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will host one of their annual rivals, the Stanford Cardinal, on Saturday in a battle for the Legends Trophy.
This game has been played every year since 1997, and Notre Dame has won the last three matchups.
After losing starting quarterback Tyler Buchner at the beginning of the season, the Notre Dame offense has been improving and may be back to full strength now.
Stanford’s offense has impressed in its own right, lending potential value to the total in this matchup.
Stanford Cardinal
Cardinal Offense
The Cardinal have been strong offensively when they haven't turned the ball over, as the offense ranks 48th in Offensive Success Rate. Their SP+ ranking falls in line with this as well, coming in as the 42nd-ranked offense.
However, the Cardinal rank 123rd in Havoc Allowed, which has stymied many of their drives, especially as they have battled health issues at both offensive tackle positions.
Starting left tackle Walter Rouse is listed as questionable entering this matchup.
Behind Tanner McKee's big arm, Stanford ranks 28th in PFF Passing Grade.
The Cardinal have a handful of big receivers who can make explosive plays down the field, but when these straight-line receivers (besides Michael Wilson) can't get open on short routes, the immobile McKee has a tendency to hold the ball, which has created those Havoc plays.
The Cardinal's rushing attack has also been solid when Casey Filkins and other backs get beyond the line of scrimmage. However, the slow mesh rushing attack has had some struggles when the tackles haven't given them enough time to make the necessary reads.
Despite the relative success, Stanford has not done this against a murderer’s row of defenses. None of the opponents that Stanford has faced have a defensive ranking in the top 45 of SP+.
This may end up being an issue for Stanford, as Notre Dame has the best defense that the Cardinal have faced to date.
Cardinal Defense
Defense has been the downfall for Stanford this season. The Cardinal rank 97th in SP+ and are 100th in Defensive Success Rate. They have been particularly bad against the run, ranking 120th in Rushing Success Rate.
There is slight cause for hope, as Stanford has played some really strong offenses this season. Among the four FBS offenses that Stanford has faced, all of them rank in the top 40 in SP+.
The downside is that Notre Dame also fits this bill, so the Cardinal will need to wait another week before they can get a reprieve.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Irish Offense
This offense has been incredibly difficult to figure out this season. The Irish started off with a stinker against Ohio State, but this can be forgiven, as the Buckeyes have one of the better defenses in the country.
After coming in after Buchner's injury late in the shocking home loss to Marshall, Drew Pyne has performed very well. Notre Dame ranks 27th in Offensive Success Rate and 36th in SP+ offensive ranking.
Pyne is completing 69% of his passes and averaging 0.41 EPA per drop back since taking over the starting job.
Notre Dame has been particularly impressive on offense over the last two weeks. It posted a 99th-percentile Success Rate against North Carolina and a 92nd-percentile Success Rate versus BYU.
Neither one of these defenses are great, and the Tar Heels are particularly bad on that side of the ball. However, UNC’s defense only ranks a few spots behind Stanford’s in SP+.
With the way that Notre Dame’s offense has been playing recently and how weak the Stanford defense is, the Irish shouldn't struggle to move the ball up and down the field.
Irish Defense
Notre Dame’s defense ranks 24th in SP+, but hasn’t performed quite as well this year overall.
The Irish rank 62nd in Defensive Success Rate, as they are an impressive 17th against the pass but just 119th against the run. If the Cardinal can give Filkins enough time to get past the line of scrimmage on the slow mesh, this could be the mismatch that Stanford takes advantage of.
The Irish’s success on defense is driven by their Pass Rush, which ranks 24th, according to PFF.
Stanford’s pass blocking has struggled and could have issues if Rouse isn't available at left tackle, so if Stanford can’t capitalize on its advantage in the run game, this Notre Dame pass rush may cause issues.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Stanford and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Stanford Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 21 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 60 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 123 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 43 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Notre Dame Offense vs. Stanford Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 123 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 131 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 57 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 104 | 104 |  |
| Havoc | 19 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 102 | 85 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 58 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 94 | 104 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 17 | 16 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (46) | 29.3 (118) |
| Rush Rate | 51.1% (79) | 59.1% (26) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame Betting Pick
Notre Dame’s offense has been playing well recently and seems to be hitting its stride. Against a poor Stanford defense, the Irish offense should have another successful day.
On the other side, Stanford’s offense is its best unit and should score on a Notre Dame defense that has disappointed for most of the season.
With this total set at 53.5 points, I like the over here. Stanford games are 4-1 to the over this year, and I think that this could be another higher-scoring game.
Against FBS teams this season, every Stanford game has had more points scored than this. As long as the Cardinal offense can move the ball, this over should hit with ease.
Pick: Over 53.5 (Play to 55)
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