Toledo vs Buffalo Odds, Picks | How to Bet This MAC Battle

Toledo vs. Buffalo Odds

Saturday, Oct. 22

12 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Toledo Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-7.5 -105	56.5 -114o / -106u	-280

Buffalo Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+7.5 -115	56.5 -114o / -106u	+225

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Buffalo hosts the Toledo Rockets in a matchup of the two early-season MAC division leaders. This may turn out to be a conference championship preview.

Toledo enters this game with a 5-2 record and is riding a four-game winning streak. The Rockets are 4-3 against the spread and have gone over in four games.

Buffalo has a 4-3 record this season and has won four consecutive games. The Bulls are 5-1-1 against the spread and have gone under in four games.

Winds may play an impact during this afternoon affair. The forecast calls for winds ranging from 11.7 to 14.4 mph with no precipitation. With some crosswinds forecasted, both the passing game and special teams could be impacted.

Toledo Rockets

Jason Candle's Rockets sit atop the MAC West division with a 5-2 record.

The Rockets are averaging 38.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. They have a 44% Success Rate and score 4.88 points per opportunity. They've done a strong job limiting Havoc at just 13%, and average 25.4 seconds per play.

In his second season as the starter, Dequan Finn has taken some steps in the right direction. He's completing 62% of his passes for an average of 8.2 yards per attempt. He's thrown 17 touchdowns and five interceptions.

And as a runner, he leads the team in rushing with 455 yards and six touchdowns.

As a team, Toledo has a 45% Passing Success Rate and has averaged 3.1 20+ yard passes per game.

Unlike the last few years, there's no bell-cow running back in the Rockets' backfield despite the team averaging 40.7 rushes per game.

Finn leads the team with 71 rush attempts, and three running backs have attempted at least 50 rushes.

The Rockets have a 44% Rushing Success Rate and average 4.7 yards per attempt. Their offensive line has created 3.1 Line Yards per attempt, but has allowed a 16.5% Stuff Rate.

The Rockets have allowed 26.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. They allow a 39% Success Rate and 4.26 points per opportunity. They rank 21st nationally with just 22 plays over 20 yards allowed for the year.

Their 16% Havoc rate ranks 86th nationally.

The biggest note when it comes to this matchup is that the Rockets allow just a 36% Rushing Success Rate, which will be critical against this Bulls offense that ranks 22nd in the nation in rush attempts per game.

Buffalo Bulls

Maurice Linguist's team is showing some improvement in his second year as head coach. After struggling in non-conference play, Linguist has the Bulls atop the MAC with a 3-0 record in conference play.

The Bulls are averaging 30.4 points per game and 5.3 yards per play. They have a 44% Success Rate and score an average of 4.23 points per opportunity. They've allowed a 20% Havoc rate and average 26.5 seconds per play.

Cole Snyder is completing 61% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt. He's struggled some with interceptions and has thrown five compared to his 11 touchdowns.

Buffalo has a 46% Passing Success Rate and averages 2.7 20+ yard passes per game.

The Bulls' offense leans heavily on the running game, averaging 41.7 rushes per game.

Mike Washington and Ron Cook have evenly split the workload, with each receiving more than 95 rush attempts. As a team, the Bulls have a 43% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line has generated 2.9 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 15.2% Stuff Rate.

This Bulls' defense has improved since their early-season struggles. They've allowed 24.4 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. They allow a 40% Success Rate and 3.52 points per opportunity.

One reason for their improvements is that they've generated Havoc on 23% of plays. The Bulls have been prone to allowing big plays, with an average of 5.7 20+ yard plays allowed per game.

Toledo vs. Buffalo Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Buffalo match up statistically:

Toledo Offense vs. Buffalo Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	72	23
Line Yards	49	47
Pass Success	52	86
Pass Blocking**	99	66
Havoc	78	10
Finishing Drives	15	42
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Buffalo Offense vs. Toledo Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	82	22
Line Yards	112	53
Pass Success	45	80
Pass Blocking**	69	49
Havoc	73	32
Finishing Drives	46	104
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	24	100
PFF Coverage	33	90
SP+ Special Teams	108	56
Seconds per Play	25.4 (40)	26.5 (68)
Rush Rate	60.8% (19)	55.6% (52)

Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Toledo vs. Buffalo Betting Pick

It appears that sharps and the public are in agreement on this game. As of this writing, 75% of bets and 83% of the money are backing the Bulls to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Buffalo has covered its last four games, including one outright win as an underdog.

Both of these teams want to run the ball on offense, and they'll be running into the respective strengths of the opposing defenses.

Based on recent results, these two teams appear to be closer to even than the line would suggest, which is why I'm taking the points with the underdogs.

Pick: Buffalo +7.5 (Play to +7)

Add Buffalo to Your FanDuel Bet Slip