Wisconsin vs. Rutgers Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Scarlet Knights (Saturday, Nov. 6)
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Wisconsin vs. Rutgers Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
This is a Big Ten West matchup for the ages, as — like last week's Iowa vs. Wisconsin game — it features a total for the biggest degenerates.
Wisconsin enters this game with a 5-3 record following a big win over Iowa. Rutgers enters this game with a 4-4 record after picking up its first conference win of the season last week.
After its disappointing start to the year, Wisconsin now finds itself on a four-game win streak with consecutive victories against ranked opponents. The Badgers are 4-4 against the spread and have gone under in five games this year.
Rutgers snapped a four-game losing streak with its first conference win over Illinois. The Scarlet Knights hold a 5-3 record ATS and have gone under the total in five games this season.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Offense
It's the same old, same old for Wisconsin's offense in 2021. It's running the ball on 64.7% of its offensive plays and playing at a slow pace.
The Badgers average 29.5 seconds per play and 69.8 plays per game. They have an Offensive Success Rate of 45.5%. While they've managed to limit Havoc Allowed to just a 13.3% rate, they've struggled to finish drives, averaging 2.9 points per opportunity.
Graham Mertz is completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.0 yards per attempt. He's thrown for 1,049 yards and three touchdowns, but he's also thrown seven interceptions. While his turnovers have been a big issue for Wisconsin this year, Mertz has gone three straight games without a pick.
As a team, Wisconsin has a 42.2% Passing Success Rate and has completed 1.25 20+ yard passes per game.
Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen have primarily shared the running back workload with 236 carries between them. They are averaging 5.39 yards per attempt and have combined for nine touchdowns. Wisconsin has a Rushing Success Rate of 47.5%.
The offensive line has continued the Wisconsin tradition of quality play by generating 3.21 Line Yards per attempt while allowing just a 13.6% Stuff Rate.
Wisconsin Defense
Even during the early-season struggles, the one known strength of the team was the defense.
Wisconsin is allowing 17.0 points per game and 3.8 yards per play. It has allowed a 29.2% Success Rate and 3.03 points per opportunity while generating Havoc on 21.4% of plays.
The Badgers are allowing 165 passing yards per game, which ranks sixth-best nationally. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 54.7% of passes for an average of 5.9 yards per attempt.
They've forced five interceptions and have defended 26 passes. They've held opponents to a 30.0% Passing Success Rate and have allowed just two 20+ passes per game.
Wisconsin is allowing just 49.6 rushing yards per game, the fewest of any FBS team. Opponents are averaging just 1.7 yards per attempt.
The strength of this unit comes in the trenches as the defense is allowing opposing offensive lines to generate just 1.92 Line Yards per attempt. The Badgers have forced a 22.4% Stuff Rate and have allowed a 28.3% Rushing Success Rate.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers Offense
The improvements Greg Schiano has brought to the Rutgers program are not being shown on the offensive side of the ball. The Knights are averaging just 23.6 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. They have a 42.8% Offensive Success Rate and have scored just 3.56 points per opportunity.
Noah Vedral had to leave for a portion of the Illinois game but did manage to return. He's completed 61.8% of his passes for an average of 6.4 yards per attempt this season while throwing for seven touchdowns and three interceptions.
As a team, Rutgers has a 39.9% Passing Success Rate, and it's averaged 2.25 20+ yard passes per game.
Rutgers has rushed for 143 yards per game at an average of 3.5 yards per attempt. Isaih Pacheco and Kyle Monangai have largely split the running back workload with 166 carries between them, but Vedral has added in 71 carries and 237 rushing yards of his own.
As a team, Rutgers has a 45.2% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line is creating 3.12 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 12.2% Stuff Rate.
Rutgers Defense
As a defensive-minded coach, Schiano's effects have been felt on the defensive side of the ball.
The Scarlet Knights are allowing 21.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. And while those numbers won't jump off of the page, their 36.5% Success Rate Allowed may. They've generated Havoc on 18.2% of plays and have held opponents to 3.03 points per opportunity.
Rutgers is allowing 216.1 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 55.3% of their passes for an average of 8.38 yards per attempt.
The Scarlet Knights allow a 36.3% Passing Success Rate and 3.5 20+ yard passes per game. They've defended 27 passes, but have forced just four interceptions.
They are allowing 146.4 rushing yards per game at an average of 4.1 yards per attempt while giving up a 36.8% Rushing Success Rate.
Most importantly, the Scarlet Knights have found success in the trenches by holding opponents to 2.81 Line Yards per attempt and forcing an 18% Stuff Rate.
Wisconsin vs. Rutgers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Rutgers match up statistically:
Wisconsin Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 127 | 23 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 101 | 95 | |
| Big Play | 116 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 38 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 17 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Rutgers Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 1 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 83 | 34 | |
| Big Play | 131 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 91 | 18 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 18 | 118 |
| Coverage | 41 | 112 |
| Middle 8 | 48 | 109 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 14 | 94 |
| Plays per Minute | 118 | 73 |
| Rush Rate | 67.% (6) | 55.8% (61) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Wisconsin vs. Rutgers Betting Pick
A total in the 30s limits the options for plays in this game. If you expect an under, then backing a near two-touchdown favorite is a big ask.
And that's why sharp action has come in on Rutgers to cover.
I will be taking Rutgers to cover any number over 10 with the expectation that neither offense will find consistent success in a low-scoring game that favors the team getting points.
However, I'm likely keeping bets smaller and may hedge with a play on the Rutgers team total under 12.5.
Pick: Rutgers +10.5 or better
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