Week 1 of the college football season is full of FBS/FCS matchups and projected blowouts. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some feisty underdogs to consider.
I’m placing my faith in two elite Group of 6 quarterbacks, albeit with two different kinds of bets.
With that said, let's take a look at my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 1.
College Football Predictions, Picks
- Marshall 24.5 vs. Penn State
- Texas State vs. Texas Over 59.5
Marshall vs Penn State Prediction
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -110 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | +1400 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -110 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | -4000 |
James Franklin was a punchline by the time he was run out of Happy Valley last fall.
Known to folks in Big Ten country as “Big Game James,” Franklin struggled to get over the hump when facing elite competition. His 4-21 record against top-10 competition was his undoing.
But bettors were equally eager to point out that he was a printing press in September. Franklin posted a 29-19 record against the spread in nonconference games, making Penn State the fourth-most profitable power conference team since 2014.
Matt Campbell arrives in Happy Valley with a different track record in nonconference tilts. The 46-year-old coach went 16-18-1 as Iowa State’s head coach when facing teams outside of the Big 12.
And if you dig deeper, many of his covers came against FCS opponents. Vanquishing the likes of Northern Iowa and South Dakota in paycheck games didn’t do much to bolster Campbell’s reputation at the window.
Well, this year’s Marshall team is far from a pushover.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is one of the best returning passers at the Group of 6 level. He’s working with the same play-caller for the second straight season, and that should pay dividends.
Offensive coordinator Rod Smith worked under Rich Rodriguez for years, and he has tailored his offensive system to fit CDRW’s skill set.
A big part of that OC/signal-caller relationship is the quarterback run game. Del Rio-Wilson ran for over 650 yards in just nine full games last year. The effectiveness of this Thundering Herd rushing attack makes them an attractive underdog because of their ability to shrink games down.
Penn State’s roster took a step back in terms of overall talent, and that’s especially true in the defensive trench. A combination of the NFL Draft and the transfer portal saw 12 defensive linemen exit the program.
Marshall has the backfield talent to attack this new front, starting with Jo'Shon Barbie, who popped at the end of last season.
If the Herd's defense takes a step forward under the newly hired and exceptionally talented Brad Lambert, I foresee Marshall hanging around deep into this game.
Pick: Marshall +24.5
Texas State vs Texas Prediction
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+29.5 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +2400 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-29.5 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
It might be easy to gloss over this one, assuming that the Longhorns are simply throwing the in-state Bobcats a bone (read: paycheck). But the reality is that this may be the quarterback matchup of Week 1.
Arch Manning needs no introduction, entering his redshirt junior season as a Heisman co-favorite. He closed the 2025 season on an absolute heater, posting an average QBR of 94.5 (out of 100) in his final three games.
Statistically, Texas State’s Brad Jackson leaves Manning in the dust.
The sophomore dual-threat quarterback completed over 70% of his passes last fall while punching in 17 rushing scores. In his final five games, the first-year starter accounted for 19 total touchdowns, completing 77% of his pass attempts while consistently burning opponents with his legs.
The quarterback play alone led me to consider this over, but the pace is what sealed it. Texas State finished 21st in seconds between plays last fall while scoring 36.5 points per game (12th).
Head coach G.J. Kinne hasn’t shied away from Power 4 competition in his first three seasons. He got his Texas State debut off to a roaring start by upsetting Baylor on the road in 2023 and then his Bobs nearly upset Arizona State in 2024.
Neither Kinne nor his team will be intimidated here, which is a good thing because I’ll need Jackson and his elite receiving corps to put up at least two touchdowns to send this game over the total.
Pick: Over 59.5
