Week 1 is officially upon us.
After a fantastic Week 0 appetizer, we finally have a full slate of college football, stretching from Thursday evening all the way through Monday night.
I broke down six of the biggest games of the week — one on Friday, two on Saturday, two on Sunday and one on Monday — and came through with a pick for each.
What are those games?
- Stanford vs. Miami (Friday)
- Auburn vs. Baylor (Saturday)
- LSU vs. Clemson (Saturday)
- Ole Miss vs. Louisville (Sunday)
- Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (Sunday)
- Florida State vs. SMU (Monday)
With so much to get to, let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Week 1 of the college football season.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from the Week 1 slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Stanford vs Miami Pick
Miami Hurricanes
The road to a National Championship begins on The Farm for the Miami Hurricanes.
Loaded at every position, head coach Mario Cristobal is set to field his third transfer quarterback in as many years with Darian Mensah. In two seasons with Duke and Tulane, the junior has accumulated 56 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions.
The one outlier from the elite numbers is the amount of turnovers carrying the ball, as Mensah has logged 16 fumbles at his previous two stops.
With only 22 yards off designed runs at Tulane and Duke, there's an expectation the offense will thrive through running back Mark Fletcher Jr. and slot Malachi Toney.
The biggest questions for the Hurricanes' defense come at the edge position. Coordinator Corey Hetherman must replace a combined 150 pressures from Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor.
Damon Wilson II will assist the interior of Justin Scott and Ahmad Moten Sr. in creating pressure against the Stanford offensive line.
The secondary returns plenty of experience, as safety Zechariah Poyser and corner Xavier Lucas combined for over 900 coverage snaps in 2025, supplying the havoc with nine pass breakups.
Stanford Cardinal
Although Stanford needed a strip-6 of Hawai'i to cover the spread, the Cardinal dominated the Warriors in the box score.
Quarterback Davis Warren led the offense to 6.8 yards per play, generating a 59% success rate in standard downs. The bigger story came with running back Micah Ford getting to the end zone for three scores.
Edge Gabe Kaminski provided the havoc on the defensive side of the ball, posting 1.5 sacks and recording a batted ball. Director of Defense Kris Richard has leveled up the Cardinal defense, as the team missed just six tackles in 98 offensive snaps against Hawai'i.
The 2025 defense finished 117th in tackle grading and near dead last in pass explosives allowed. The improvement against the deep ball was apparent against Micah Alejado, who logged just five completions on 14 passing attempts beyond 10 yards.
Stanford vs Miami Prediction
Fresh Week 1 teams have had the advantage at the window over teams who played in Week 0. Per Bet Labs, fresh Week 1 teams have covered 149-110 over the previous 10 seasons.
With the exception of 2021, where post-COVID Week 0 teams went 15-7 against the spread, every season over the past 10 years has been heavily profitable.
The trend favors the Hurricanes in this spot, as they got plenty of game tape from the Cardinal victory over Hawai'i.
Cristobal noted in his weekly presser that this opening game "had our attention since January."
The Action Network projections call for Miami to be favored by 28.5, well beyond the current market of -24. The scoring could start slow in this game. Stanford's offense may have exposed its entire playbook in Week 0, while Miami has questions on the offensive line that should see all players in the two-deep find the most cohesive five-man rotation.
Considering Stanford allowed Hawai'i to score 20 points in the fourth quarter, there's reason to think Mensah, Toney and Fletcher will create enough explosives for the Hurricanes to cover.
Pick: Miami -24.5 or Better
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Auburn vs Baylor Pick
Baylor Bears
Baylor will have a different look on both sides of the ball this season.
The Bears dipped into the transfer portal for a new quarterback. Former Florida signal caller DJ Lagway enters his third campaign ready to run coordinator Jake Spavital's Air Raid up-tempo attack.
The former Gator will be expected to throw at a much higher rate, as he brings in a career 28-touchdown-to-23-interception ratio.
Lagway struggled under duress in 2025, generating nearly double the amount of turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws in 157 dropbacks against the blitz.
The offensive line and wide receiver groups will be crucial to the Bears' attack this season, as both units were a rebuild to start fall camp.
The top two tacklers have moved on from a defense that now falls under new coordinator Joe Klanderman, formerly of Kansas State.
The defensive line has received the most praise through camp, but the results must improve after finishing bottom-15 in Havoc, pass rush and defensive finishing drives.
More important is the ability to control the line of scrimmage, as Baylor returns players on a defensive line that ranked 107th in line yards last season.
Auburn Tigers
The rage for new head coach Alex Golesh has been the pipeline transfer portal to the South Florida offense, including quarterback Byrum Brown.
The fifth-year senior has been elite on film, posting 28 passing touchdowns to just seven interceptions a season ago.
Brown's dual-threat abilities have also shined brightly, logging more than 1,100 rushing yards, with 759 coming from designed calls by Golesh.
Brown will be joined in the backfield by Auburn holdover running back Jeremiah Cobb, giving the Tigers an elusive one-two punch on the ground.
The defensive side of the ball hasn't had as much noise in the offseason, but Golesh's decision to retain coordinator DJ Durkin should be beneficial in game one. Durkin gets six of his top 12 tacklers back, including linebacker Xavier Atkins, who had 68 tackles and 25 pressures last season.
The continuity between players and coach should help Auburn retain the elite rush defense numbers from last season. Auburn finished top-five in defensive rushing success rate, line yards, stuff rate and rush explosives allowed.
Auburn vs Baylor Prediction
Golesh indicated that a healthy Lagway can be one of the best FBS quarterbacks, and the pressure from the Auburn defense will be crucial. The Tigers will face an offensive line that lost four of five starters.
A ruling on transfer Yakiri Walker by the NCAA deemed the former center ineligible in mid-July, leaving Dave Aranda with an even bigger gap heading into camp.
In a battle of which defense can contain the opposing quarterback, Auburn has more proven pieces in the defensive front than Baylor has on the offensive line.
This game will be played in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, noted as a neutral site that's just 110 miles from Auburn's campus. The Action Network Power Ratings make Auburn a favorite in the double-digit range.
With Baylor's questions around a new defensive coordinator and an unknown offensive line to protect Lagway, the Tigers' offense and returning defensive pieces from DJ Durkin's scheme gives Auburn the heavy advantage in this Big 12/SEC showdown.
Pick: Auburn -7.5 or Better
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LSU vs Clemson Pick
Clemson Tigers
A 7-5 regular season and a loss in the Pinstripe Bowl have the Clemson faithful asking if the decline is linear or a brief dip.
Head coach Dabo Swinney enters his 18th season with an impressive resume that includes two national titles and nine ACC Championships.
The Tigers have played in the College Football Playoff just once since the pandemic season of 2020, a first-round loss to Texas.
Changes were made heading into 2026, including the return of Chad Morris as offensive coordinator, a role he held during previous Clemson national title seasons.
Quarterback Christopher Vizzina held off highly-touted freshman Tait Reynolds for the starting role in Morris' smash-mouth spread offense.
Defensive coordinator Tom Allen will look to get Clemson back as one of the best defenses in the nation. The Tigers unexpectedly fell out of the top 50 in explosives allowed and also fell outside the top 60 in coverage grading.
The defensive line will be without one of the best players on the roster, Vic Burley, who's serving a suspension for disorderly conduct.
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LSU Tigers
LSU has generated more off-field noise than any other team in college football, from the arrival of Lane Kiffin to the acceptance of recently cut NFL players.
The impact of tight end Dae'Quan Wright may not be enough to change the spread, but all eyes are on Arizona State transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt from the first snap.
The former Sun Devil suffered an injury in late 2025 that required surgery. Leavitt hasn't taken a competitive snap since the injury.
The defense has a few more questions, as unresolved eligibility cases involve defensive linemen. LSU is set to start a freshman in the defensive trench, but the linebacker group continues to be solid for holdover defensive coordinator Blake Baker.
Whit Weeks and Ole Miss transfer TJ Dottery bring a wealth of experience to patrol the middle.
The addition of edge Princewill Umanmielen from Ole Miss adds 51 pressures from a season ago, indicating that Clemson skill positions will be under heavy duress.
LSU vs Clemson Prediction
The Clemson offense could sputter out of the gate. Morris hasn't called a college football offense since the 2020 season with Auburn.
Vizzina is not a finished product under center for the Tigers, as the third-year quarterback has 71 career passing attempts with two big-time throws and seven turnover-worthy plays.
The Clemson offensive line entered camp with Collin Sadler and Harris Sewell as multi-year starters. That will not bode well against an LSU defense that pulled a number of blue-chip names from the transfer portal in the offseason.
The LSU offense is expected to have a bit more success, as Leavitt will be protected by Colorado transfer tackle Jordan Seaton.
A number of pass-catching options flashed at previous stops, including Jackson Harris at Hawaii with 73 targets and 2.8 yards per route run.
The Action Network projections list LSU as more than a two-touchdown favorite, indicating the Tigers as the play on the side.
However, the better bet may come on the total, where Clemson's offense will look for answers on the offensive line, while LSU is hoping Leavitt can connect with new targets out of the gate.
Pick: Under 51 or Better
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Ole Miss vs Louisville Pick
Louisville Cardinals
The big unknown coming into the season for Louisville is the dual-threat capability of a new transfer quarterback. Lincoln Kienholz enters the 2026 season as the Cardinals' signal caller after transferring from Ohio State. He has a career 36 passing attempts dating back to 2023.
Head coach Jeff Brohm will limit downfield action for his new quarterback, but he will allow the senior to flash his mobility with scrambles and plenty of throws while on the move.
Both the head coach and offensive coordinator Brian Brohm have emphasized that the Louisville offense has an expanded playbook this season thanks to Kienholz.
The Louisville defense will continue to field one of the best nationally in various categories. The Cardinals ended 2025 top-15 in defensive success rate, limiting explosives and third nationally in pass rush grading, per PFF.
A number of Havoc makers return to the defense, including edge Clev Lubin, cornerback Tayon Holloway and safety Koen Entringer.
Ole Miss Rebels
Head coach Pete Golding will look to ride the 2025 momentum of a national semifinal game into the 2026 season.
That task became easier with eligibility concerns being relieved for quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The former Ferris State quarterback has Heisman aspirations after a 22-touchdown season that saw 29 big-time throws to just 13 turnover-worthy plays.
The return of Kewan Lacy makes the Rebels' backfield one of the most explosive in the country.
Golding will field another stingy defense after finishing top-25 in opponent finishing drives a season ago. Edge Suntarine Perkins returns after leading the team with 65 pressures. Linebacker Keaton Thomas joins from Baylor after recording 80 tackles last season.
Defensive interior Will Echoles returns to the trench after grading as the best run defender of any Rebels defender in 2025.
The biggest question heading into the Louisville game is the Rebels' ability to tackle in space, as they finished last year at 77th in PFF tackle grading.
Ole Miss vs Louisville Prediction
There are more questions with Louisville than Ole Miss heading into this Week 1 showdown. The Cardinals will use a dual-threat RPO game dependent on Kienholz's legs, a factor that has not been seen before or used by Brohm's playbook.
Running back Isaac Brown is healthy after starting camp with hamstring issues. He's averaging 4.5 yards after first contact in 263 career rushing attempts. The Louisville offense must produce on the ground, as four of its top five pass catchers from a season ago have moved on.
The Ole Miss defense will be prepared to take on the rush attack of Kienholz and Brown, as it returns four of its top five tacklers. Echoles and Perkins led a defense that ended 2025 ranked 36th in broken tackles allowed, a signal that Brown could have a limit on explosive plays.
Thomas ranked as one of the highest Big 12 defensive players in run defense and tackle grading, and is now roaming between the tackles for the Rebels' defense. Louisville needed the elusiveness of Brown a season ago, as the offensive line ranked poorly in line yards and bottom-15 in stuff rate.
The Action Network projects Ole Miss as more than a touchdown favorite, well ahead of the market number that has dipped in favor of Louisville. Chambliss and Lacy are expected to be as potent as the 2025 version, a known factor in comparison to the new Louisville offense.
With Brohm adding an expanded playbook with a quarterback that has limited experience, look to back the Rebels at a touchdown or less.
Pick: Ole Miss -7 or Better
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Notre Dame vs Wisconsin Pick
Check back for Wilson's full analysis!
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Florida State vs SMU Pick
Check back for Wilson's full analysis!
