The SMU Mustangs take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, Florida, on Monday, Sept. 7. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
SMU is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148. Florida State, meanwhile, enters as a +3 underdog and is +124 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks for Monday, September 7.
SMU vs Florida State Prediction
- SMU vs. Florida State Pick: SMU -3
My Florida State vs. SMU best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU vs Florida State Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -102 | 53.5 -108o / -112u | -148 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -118 | 53.5 -108o / -112u | +124 |
- SMU vs Florida State point spread: SMU -3 (-102), Florida State +3 (-118)
- SMU vs Florida State over/under: 53.5 (-108o / -112u)
- SMU vs Florida State moneyline: SMU -148, Florida State +124
SMU vs Florida State Preview
SMU Mustangs
SMU will begin the season on the road with a conference game, thankfully with full health for quarterback Kevin Jennings. The fifth-year senior started camp with a right finger injury but was fully cleared for the season.
The quarterback ended 2025 with twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, maintaining a stable 3% turnover-worthy play rate year over year.
The SMU backfield will remain strong with running back Kendrick Raphael bringing 13 rushing touchdowns from Cal.
Maurice Crum Jr. will call plays for the first time in his career, as he was elevated from linebacker coach to co-defensive coordinator.
Pass coverage was a consistent issue in 2025, with the Mustangs finishing 66th in opponent pass EPA. Crum will turn to the linebacker returning core of Alexander Kilgore and Brandon Booker.
SMU's "Club Takeaway" fields one of the better secondaries in the ACC with returning corners Marcellus Barnes Jr., Jaelyn Davis-Robinson and William Nettles. Barnes was a shutdown corner in 2025, executing nine forced incompletions while allowing just 23 of 43 targets to record a reception.
Florida State Seminoles
The Week 0 box score was anything but desirable for head coach Mike Norvell. New Mexico State trailed within a possession in the third quarter, finding success against the Seminoles' secondary.
The Aggies nearly eclipsed 300 passing yards, taking just two sacks on 12 pressures. Another issue that could linger into Week 1 is fundamentals, as Florida State missed nine tackles against New Mexico State ball carriers.
The other side of the ball did nothing to relieve Seminole anxieties, as quarterback Ashton Daniels was pressured 10 times in 32 dropbacks.
The bright spot of the offense came in the rushing attack, led by Ousmane Kromah. The sophomore posted an electric 6.1 yards after first contact, assisted by a 52-yard explosive.
SMU vs Florida State Pick, Betting Analysis
SMU falls into a trend that has served investors well for a decade. Over the past 10 years, teams in Week 1 playing their first game of the season have covered the spread at a 58% clip against teams that played in Week 0. 
There are other areas where SMU has the advantage, first with Jennings and a collection of targets against a Florida State defense that allowed explosives to New Mexico State.
Starting defensive backs Ashlynd Barker, Ja'Bril Rawls and CJ Richard Jr. all allowed a 20-yard explosive to the Aggies' passing game.
With poor tackling, explosive plays allowed and minimal havoc, there is reason to believe SMU will create quality drives.
The Mustangs should produce a much more aggressive pass rush than the Aggies, who get into double-digit pressures against Daniels.
Pick: SMU -3
