Unlike the NFL, where every team plays on the first weekend, college football has had a unique Week 0 in which only a handful of teams make their debut.
For what it's worth, this marks the final year we'll see this for the foreseeable future, with all FBS teams slated to start at the same time in 2027.
Last weekend, we saw 16 FBS squads kick off their seasons, and almost all of them are back in action in Week 1 against an opponent making its season debut.
There are also countless FCS teams that kicked off their seasons that will face FBS teams playing in their first game this weekend.
It's worth noting that Tarleton State is traveling across the country. That's certainly less than ideal when it comes to preparing for a unique scheme.
Let's take a look at some college football picks and NCAAF betting trends for Week 0 teams that are playing again in Week 1.
Historical Look at a Unique Early-Season Situation
So, what's more important: Shaking off the rust and working out the kinks in live action, or holding a potential film, rest and preparation edge?
Teams that have yet to play can see what their opponent did in Week 0. Meanwhile, they can reap the benefits of the unknown as it pertains to their own respective game plans and wrinkles, especially with so much turnover in today's college football landscape.
Moreover, teams making their debut could potentially enjoy a preparation edge.
While their opponent would have spent time preparing for their first matchup, teams that didn't play in the opening week had no such concerns. They have a leg up when it comes to allocating time to get ready for that Week 1 clash.
The extra rest — and sometimes lack of travel and/or injuries — also certainly doesn't hurt.
Lopsided Past Results in Week 1
Based solely on the historic against-the-spread results, the answer to this question is clear: the team making its debut holds an edge.
Teams playing their season opener against an opponent that has already played have covered at around a 55% clip historically, including FCS teams.
However, the FCS market is much less efficient, hence the lower limits. Therefore, if we isolate FBS teams since 2005, they have actually fared even better at 62-39 ATS (61.6%) following just a 2-5 mark over the past two seasons.
For reference, I only included games played in August and September. That removes the eight season openers in 2020 that involved Mountain West and Pac-12 teams that started late due to pandemic disruptions.
Week 1 Games That Fit the Trend
A total of 16 FBS teams opened their seasons in Week 0, but only four games fit the mold for this trend. Why so few? Well, four of the teams in action last week will face each other in Week 1.
- UNLV at Hawaii
- San Jose State at Eastern Michigan
UNLV has some offensive line questions and a key injury following last week's loss to Memphis, but I'm not sure Hawaii is the team that will exploit that potential weakness.
The Bows couldn't even get pressure on Davis Warren against a shorthanded Stanford offensive line that even suffered more injuries in-game.
There also might be some impactful weather, which would certainly benefit UNLV. The Rebels can lean on the legs of Jai'Den Thomas and Jackson Arnold, while Hawaii relies much more on the pass.
San Jose State had a bit more juice than I had expected coming into the season. While this is a tough travel spot on a short week at Eastern Michigan, the Spartans are certainly live in what should be a close game throughout.
Meanwhile, TCU and North Carolina have byes following their bout in Ireland before taking on FCS schools in their respective home openers. The same goes for Virginia and NC State, which are both idle following their ACC opener.
That leaves us with eight remaining teams, four of which will face FCS teams that also played last week:
- Jacksonville State (-20.5) will play its home opener this weekend against FCS Eastern Kentucky, which also played last Saturday (lost 45-21 at Western Carolina). This is not a matchup where the Gamecocks will have to worry about their issues in the trenches. I laid -19.5.
- North Dakota State(-39.5) also takes on an FCS squad before opening Mountain West play at Air Force. The Bison find themselves in a bit of a letdown/look-ahead spot, but I'm not sure Fordham is a team I'd be running to bet after the Rams got outgained, 434-189, by Colgate in their home opener.
- Sacramento State (-35.5) will host FCS Mississippi Valley State in what should be a bloodbath despite the Hornets' extreme offensive struggles in Ypsilanti. The lowly Delta Devils lost, 44-10, at Nicholls to open the year.
- New Mexico State (-28.5) hosts Mercyhurst, which lost, 43-10, at Youngstown State last Thursday night. The Lakers do at least have a couple extra days of rest/prep for an Aggies squad that will have to travel back across the country following a respectable showing at Florida State. NMSU also has a trip to Hawaii on deck.
That leaves four FBS teams making their season debut against an FBS school that already played a game, which I will detail below.
I will rarely fade the teams making their debut in these spots unless I really like the number or matchup, but I don't just blindly back them either.
Fresno State vs USC Pick
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -112 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +1300 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -108 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -2800 |
I'm not as high as others on Fresno State, which named Jayden Mandal its starting quarterback for Friday night.
The junior signal-caller has barely seen any action during his time in the Valley, so he's a bit of an unknown (although he didn't last long in his only start in the 2024 Idaho Potato Bowl).
This will likely come down to how USC head coach Lincoln Riley wants to treat another inferior opponent.
Last week against San Jose State, the Trojans took their foot off the gas very early and had many of their third-stringers in on defense in the fourth quarter when the Spartans made a bit of a comeback to make the final score more respectable.
Verdict: Pass
Miami vs Stanford Pick
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -105 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -3600 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -115 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +1500 |
Stanford had an impressive three quarters against Hawaii before allowing 20 straight points, forcing the Cardinal to rally late for their season-opening victory.
Davis Warren looked very competent at quarterback, throwing for over 300 yards in his West Coast debut. However, he barely had to deal with pressure against an extremely weak Hawaii pass rush that simply couldn't exploit all of the offensive line injuries.
Stanford came into the game without its two projected starting guards and its star left tackle, who could end up going in the first round of the NFL Draft.
The Cardinal still had ample experience in the interior, but then lost starting center Aidan Kilstrom to an injury late in the contest.
It remains to be seen how healthy that group will be on Friday night, but trotting out a bunch of backups likely won't end well against Miami's front, even with the Hurricanes needing to replace Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor.
While I love to fade Mario Cristobal as a big favorite (3-9 ATS as a favorite of more than 24 points vs. FBS competition), I'm not itching to fade Miami in this generally favorable spot, especially with a potentially very shorthanded Stanford offensive line that ranked in the bottom 10 nationally in sacks allowed in 2025.
This will obviously present a much stiffer test than the Hawaii defensive front, and Warren has historically been dreadful under pressure.
Verdict: Pass
Arkansas State vs Memphis Pick
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -112 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +340 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -108 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -440 |
The Red Wolves will open their season on Saturday in the Liberty Bowl in a regional rivalry known as the Paint Bucket Bowl. Meanwhile, Memphis will look to avoid a letdown after upsetting UNLV on the road last weekend.
It's also worth noting that the Tigers have a date with Boise State next week in a game with massive G6 playoff implications, so this is a bit of a tricky scheduling spot.
And I do think this is the one matchup where that film advantage really matters this week. For starters, Arkansas State got to see the brand-new Memphis offense with DII transfer quarterback Marcus Stokes.
Conversely, the Tigers don't have any tape on what this brand-new Arkansas State offensive scheme will look like under Garrett Altman, who head coach Butch Jones brought in from Vanderbilt in the offseason to run that side of the ball.
Expect a much slower pace and many of the same looks that we saw in the Diego Pavia offense. It's a tricky one-week prep regardless, but especially since Memphis has no idea who will line up under center for the Red Wolves.
It could be Texas transfer Trey Owens (who gives them the most upside), veteran Ethan Crawford or one of two Vanderbilt transfers (led by Drew Dickey) who have familiarity with the scheme.
Whoever wins the job will benefit from having an experienced backfield, two returning starters at wide receiver and four along the offensive line.
This is a very experienced offense outside of quarterback, although the situation at left tackle does worry me against this ferocious Memphis defensive line. Oddly enough, the Red Wolves' starting left tackle from last season now starts for Memphis.
That experience along the offensive line should come in handy against a Memphis defensive front that dominated the second half in Vegas last week.
However, it was pretty well known the Tigers would have a very good D-line, and they certainly benefited from facing a weak UNLV offensive line that didn't come into the season with much continuity and then lost its top player, which then completely cratered the offense.
Keep in mind this Red Wolves offense put up 450 yards against Southern Miss last season in a 27-21 loss in large part due to six turnovers. Jones is very familiar with this Memphis defense that's filled with Golden Eagle transfers who followed Huff to the Bluff City.
I actually didn't upgrade Memphis that much following last week's victory since I wasn't as high on UNLV as others. I really like offensive coordinator Kevin Decker but wasn't overly impressed with the personnel.
Now, look, the Tigers could just end up absolutely shredding this Arkansas State stop unit, which comes into the year with questions all over the two-deep. The Red Wolves essentially lost everyone of note outside of their safeties and a nickelback who flashed late in the season as a true freshman.
As a result, they'll need a number of transfers and unproven youth to step up, which definitely creates an abundance of uncertainty.
Lastly, Arkansas State should have one of the better special teams units at the G6 level once again this season, which can only help keep this margin close.
Bottom line, this spot is too good to pass up even if there's a chance I look completely foolish if the defense is a sieve and the quarterback play is inept. That's just life in Week 1.
Verdict: Arkansas State +10.5 or Better
SMU vs Florida State Pick
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -108u | -145 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -108u | +120 |
Part of my brain wants to buy low on Florida State after a fairly lackluster performance in Week 0 against New Mexico State, in which the 'Noles never even sniffed a cover.
However, given the situation and some of the glaring issues I saw on the field, I could only bet SMU at the current price.
FSU was incapable of generating consistent pressure against the New Mexico State offensive line, which may spell doom against an extremely formidable SMU offensive line that returns a trio of outstanding starters, led by stud left tackle PJ Williams, who could garner first-round buzz by the end of the season.
And if you can't put pressure on Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (returning for his third season as a full-time starter), he will pick you apart.
Florida State does have a very strong backfield, but SMU can counteract that strength with a very experienced linebacker corps.
Can Ashton Daniels consistently exploit matchup advantages on the outside with his talented wide receivers against the Mustang cornerbacks? I have my doubts.
It's also worth noting that All-ACC safety Ahmaad Moses got granted an extra year of eligibility for SMU, which is a huge addition to the back end.
Verdict: SMU -2.5 or Better (Lean)
