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Kansas vs Kansas State Odds, Prediction: The NCAAF Bet to Make

Kansas vs Kansas State Odds, Prediction: The NCAAF Bet to Make article feature image
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Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jalon Daniels (Kansas)

Kansas vs Kansas State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 26
8 p.m. ET
FOX
Kansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+11.5
-110
62
-110o / -110u
+370
Kansas State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-11.5
-110
62
-110o / -110u
-460
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Kansas and Kansas State have played 119 times, dating back to 1902. However, this Saturday, we will see one of the biggest Sunflower Showdowns in quite some time.

The Wildcats have won the last 13 meetings between these two teams, dating back to 2008. Kansas only has four victories in this series since 1993, but it has a team good enough this season to have a chance.

With a win, the Kansas State Wildcats would lock up a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, their first since 2003. Chris Klieman has turned in another impressive season in Manhattan, already tied for his most wins in a year there.

On the other side, Kansas’ program has been totally transformed under Lance Leipold, winning its most games since 2008 and becoming bowl eligible for the first time since then, as well.

The Jayhawks sit at 6-5 after they surprisingly started 5-0 and found themselves ranked and hosting College GameDay. They have fallen off a bit after Jalon Daniels was injured and conference play went on.

However, this team has enough offense to hang with almost anyone in the conference.


Kansas Jayhawks

Jayhawks Offense

Daniels and this offense have carried the Jayhawks to the success they have had this year. They are ranked 13th by SP+ and are 34th in Offensive Success Rate. Daniels missed just over a month of action, and Kansas went 1-3 during that time period.

This season, Daniels has 1,302 passing yards with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. He also has added another 353 yards on the ground with five rushing touchdowns. Daniels playing well will be the key to Kansas having a big offensive day.

Kansas’ passing game ranks 13th in Success Rate, third in PPA and 10th in Explosiveness. Even without Daniels for a chunk of the season, this passing offense has been potent almost every week.

The Jayhawks do tend to lean into their running game more. They run at the 35th-highest rate in the FBS, and with great results. Kansas is only 74th in Rushing Success Rate, but it’s prone to breaking off a big one. This team is fifth in Rushing Explosiveness, leading it to rank 22nd in rushing PPA.

Jayhawks Defense

The reason that Kansas has not been even better this year despite its great offense is that its defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone.

The Jayhawks have the 102nd defense in the nation, according to SP+. They rank 117th in Success Rate, 78th in opponent points per opportunity and 127th in Havoc rate generated.

Both facets of their defense have struggled this season. They rank 111th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 103rd in passing PPA. Meanwhile, they rank 118th in each of those categories against the run.

The one positive for this defense has been its ability to keep its opponents from generating explosive plays. Kansas ranks 27th in Defensive Explosiveness, primarily fueled by its abilities to prevent big pass plays (22nd).


Kansas State Wildcats

Wildcats Offense

This weekend, Will Howard will be leading the Kansas State offense again in place of the injured Adrian Martinez. Howard has played in four games this season, putting up an impressive 11-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. 

The Kansas State offense is ranked 32nd in the country by SP+, and it’s 56th in Offensive Success Rate. This team runs the ball at the 21st-highest rate in the country and relies heavily on the legs of star running back Deuce Vaughn.

The Wildcats are only 72nd in Rushing Success Rate, but 19th in Explosiveness and 36th in PPA.

This passing offense has been fairly average this season. It ranks 52nd in both Passing Success Rate and Passing Explosiveness. Kansas State ranks 54th in passing PPA, as well.

Wildcats Defense

The Wildcats’ defense this season has been a huge part of their success. This is the No. 18 defense in the nation, according to SP+. They rank 29th in Success Rate Allowed and 10th in points per opportunity.

This defense has been strong in both facets of the game. It’s 40th in both rushing PPA and Rushing Success Rate. Meanwhile, the Wildcats rank 29th in passing PPA and 39th in Passing Success Rate. Kansas’ offense is great, but it will be challenged by this Kansas State defense.


Kansas vs Kansas State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Kansas State match up statistically:

Kansas Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 73 40
Line Yards 51 111
Pass Success 13 39
Pass Blocking** 73 70
Havoc 49 75
Finishing Drives 28 10
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Kansas State Offense vs. Kansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 72 118
Line Yards 63 123
Pass Success 52 111
Pass Blocking** 57 83
Havoc 29 129
Finishing Drives 40 78
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 60 71
PFF Coverage 98 55
SP+ Special Teams 129 49
Seconds per Play 28.3 (105) 28.0 (100)
Rush Rate 57.5% (35) 59.6% (25)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Kansas vs Kansas State Betting Pick

This Kansas offense has more than enough firepower to make this a game and put the pressure on the Wildcats’ offense to perform, as well. We just saw Kansas State and West Virginia trade scores in the first half last weekend, and I think that this game could play out similarly.

Both of these offenses are very strong, but the differences in the defenses will end up deciding this game most likely.

I think that this line is set properly, but the total is too low for a game with Daniels on one side and Kansas’ defense on the other. 

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