In one of the most interesting scheduling quirks you will see, Miami has played just 1 game in the last 3 weeks. However, that game was very memorable, as it defeated arch-rival Florida State for the second consecutive year.
Miami enters this week No. 2 in the AP Top 25, and it will go for its 4th win in 5 tries against Louisville.
Louisville also enters this game off a bye, seeking redemption.
The Cardinals could not complete a comeback, as they fell to Virginia in overtime, 30-27, last time out. They'll look to gain some ground in the ACC Championship race by pulling off a Friday night upset of the Hurricanes.
Miami is a 2-touchdown favorite at home with a total just over 50 points. I'll be targeting the over as well as both quarterbacks for this Friday night same-game parlay.
With that said, let's dive into my Miami vs. Louisville picks and college football parlay for Friday, Oct. 17.
Miami vs. Louisville Picks, Parlay
- Carson Beck 225+ Alt. Passing Yards (-160)
- Miller Moss 225+ Alt. Passing Yards (-220)
- Over 50.5 (-115)
Parlay Odds: +200 via Fanatics
Miami vs. Louisville Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -550 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +400 |
Miami Player Prop: Carson Beck 225+ Passing Yards
After leading Georgia to a 13-1 record as a first-year starter, Carson Beck faced heavy criticism last season.
Still, in a "down" year, Beck threw for nearly 3,500 yards, 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
After transferring to Miami, he has had more freedom with offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson calling the plays.
Beck ranks sixth among FBS quarterbacks in QBR. He has thrown for over 200 yards and two touchdown passes in four of five games this season and gone over 225 passing yards in three of them.
On Friday night, Beck will have a Louisville defense that's allowing just 150 passing yards per game. However, Pitt's Eli Holstein threw for 228 yards on 26 attempts against the Cardinals, and he has since been benched.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Beck has thrown for 225 passings in 24-of-32 games for a 75% hit rate.
True freshman Malachi Toney and LSU transfer CJ Daniels have formed one of the nation's best receivng tandems, which will only help Beck reach this number.
Highly-touted redshirt freshman Joshisa Trader may also factor into the mix more as he gets healthy, and he's expected to play tonight. Expect the bulk of Beck's passing yards to go to this trio.
Louisville Player Prop: Miller Moss 225+ Passing Yards
On the other side, I'll also back Louisville quarterback Miller Moss.
A USC transfer, Moss is averaging 271.6 passing yards through his first five games as a Cardinal. He has gone over 300 passing yards in each of his last three games and now has eight 300-yard passing games in his career.
While the Cardinals rank 96th in Passing Success Rate, they're 22nd in passing yards per game.
They will have a tough task this week against a Miami defense that's ninth in scoring defense and may have the nation's best edge duo in Reuben Bain and Akheem Mesidor.
However, the game script may call for him to throw.
With Miami being a comfortable home favorite, the oddsmakers are expecting Louisville to be playing from behind. If that's the case, Moss will be airing it out in the second half.
In similar situations this season, Miami gave up 274 passing yards on 36 attempts to South Florida's Byrum Brown and 272 passing yards on 45 attempts to Florida State's Tommy Castellanos. Notre Dame's CJ Carr threw for 221 yards against the Hurricanes as well.
Though the Cardinals have Isaac Brown in the backfield, they're still a pass-first team.
Moss has had 30 pass attempts in each of his last three games, with 99 combined in his last two games. If the Cardinals have a negative game script tonight, expect Moss to air it out.
Over/Under Pick: Over 50.5
Miami and Louisville have played each other in each of the last two years, with the road team winning both games. Those games featured 69 and 97 points.
Miami's defense is significantly improved this season, but the 2023 group had a top-25 defense.
However, Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm is one of the best offensive minds in the country and has had a couple of weeks to prepare for this game.
On the other side, Miami should have a lot of success offensively.
While it's not as explosive as last year's unit led by Cam Ward, it's still averaging 35 points and nearly 430 total yards per game this season. Three of Miami's first five games featured at least 50 points.
We also have a strong head-to-head history, as these teams have played four times since 2019, and all four have gone over while averaging 81.5 points. I'm expecting at least 51 tonight with Beck and Moss leading the way.
