After going 9-4 in Kalen DeBoer's debut season in Tuscaloosa, expectations were high for Alabama to return to the National Championship picture. However, that got off to a bumpy start after it was upended by Florida State in Tallahassee to open the season. Since then, the Crimson Tide have ripped off four straight victories.
Meanwhile, Missouri is off to a fast 5-0 start. It's scored 42 points or more in four of its first five games. However, it also hasn't been tested much, as it has yet to leave Columbia and has played just two Power Four opponents.
Alabama is a short road favorite with a total over 50 points. Here's my Missouri vs Alabama same-game parlay.
Missouri vs Alabama Parlay Picks
- Ty Simpson 250+ Passing Yards (-250) & 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-170)
- Germie Bernard 60+ Receiving Yards (-130)
- Ahmad Hardy 100+ Rushing Yards (+100)
Parlay Odds: +525 via bet365
Missouri vs Alabama Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Ty Simpson 250+ Passing Yards (-330) & 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-190)
Ty Simpson waited his turn to start behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe. Despite making his first career starts this season, he's still played with the poise of an upperclassman.
The redshirt junior has thrown over 200 yards and two touchdowns in every game this season. Since the Florida State game, he's been completing 76.5% of his passes.
Through five games, Missouri has allowed just six passing touchdowns and 141.4 passing yards per game. Despite that, it's tied for 56th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
The Tigers allowed 223 passing yards and two passing touchdowns to Kansas' Jalon Daniels and 302 passing yards and two touchdowns to South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers.
If Simpson maintains his efficiency, his opportunities will be there. He's thrown for 250 yards or more in four of his first five games, and it may be necessary for Alabama to pull out a road win.
The Crimson Tide has averaged just 126.8 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry, placing more pressure on Simpson's shoulders.
Expect him to target Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard early and often.
Germie Bernard 60+ Receiving Yards (-155)
Williams entered the year as Alabama's expected WR1 after recording 48 receptions and 865 yards with eight touchdowns as a true freshman.
This year, he's battled injuries, drops and inconsistency, but he still has 21 receptions for 336 yards and three touchdowns.
He's opened opportunities for others, though, including the ever-consistent Bernard.
Dating back to last season, Bernard has recorded 60 receiving yards in 12 of his past 14 games, going over 70 yards in nine of those games.
This season, he leads the team with 25 receptions, 392 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He's hauled in three receptions in every game season.
While Williams' presence creates space for teammates, Bernard has emerged as a threat in his own right. He's found the end zone in his last four games and recorded a 20-yard reception in four of his last five.
If he has another explosive play this week, he likely records 60 yards once again.
Ahmad Hardy 100+ Rushing Yards (-110)
In recent seasons, Missouri has had success bringing in unheralded running backs from the transfer portal. In 2022, Cody Schrader transferred in from Truman College. As a senior, he ran for 1,627 yards and 14 touchdowns.
This spring, head coach Eli Drinkwitz went to UL Monroe to bring in running back Ahmad Hardy.
After running for over 1,300 yards as a true freshman, he's well on his way to another 1,000-yard season. He leads the FBS with 730 rushing yards on 7.1 yards per carry, and he's second with nine rushing touchdowns.
He's rushed for 100 yards in every game this season and has a great matchup in this one.
Alabama is 88th in rushing yards allowed per game. It allowed over 200 rushing yards to Florida State and Georgia, with Chauncey Bowens rushing for 119 yards and a touchdown for the Bulldogs.
With more carries, it likely would've surrendered another 100-yard rusher last week. Vanderbilt's Sedrick Alexander had four totes for 76 yards, highlighted by a 65-yard touchdown.
Hardy has one rush of 30 yards or more in four of his first games with the Tigers. He can hit a home run, but he's also had 20 carries in each of his last four games.
That kind of volume should net him 100 rushing yards once again.
