The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) take on the No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) in Champaign, Illinois. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ohio State is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -650. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Illinois prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Picks
- Ohio State vs. Illinois Pick: Over 50.5 (-110, bet365)
My Illinois vs. Ohio State best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs. Illinois Odds, Lines, Spread
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -105 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -800 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -115 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +500 |
- Ohio State vs. Illinois Spread: Ohio State -15.5, Illinois +15.5
- Ohio State vs. Illinois Over/Under: 50.5
- Ohio State vs. Illinois Moneyline: Ohio State ML -800, Illinois ML +500
Ohio State vs. Illinois College Football Betting Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
The defending National Champions are off to a 5-0 start and are ranked No. 1 in the country. The Buckeyes have dominated all of their opponents and have yet to allow more than 10 points. They now face their toughest test on the road against a feisty Illinois offense.
True sophomore Julian Sayin was handed the keys to a National Championship team and has looked more and more comfortable each week. He's thrown 13 touchdown passes with three interceptions and is completing over 80% of his passes.
For Sayin, his job is very simple: get the ball to his playmakers.
Ohio State continues to have the best receiver room in the country, thanks to superstar Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and tight end Max Klare. Smith leads the Big Ten with 35 catches and six touchdown receptions. The Buckeyes' offense ranks fourth in the country in Pass Success Rate.
The run game was expected to take a step back after sending a pair of running backs to the NFL, but this new group is averaging 171.6 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry, both of which are higher than last year.
True freshman Bo Jackson has burst onto the scene, averaging 7.5 yards per carry and 90 yards per game on the ground. The Buckeyes have split carries between Jackson, James Peoples and West Virginia transfer CJ Donaldson.
As good as this offense is, the defense is undoubtedly the star of the show. Despite losing a ton of production and talent to the NFL and its defense coordinator to Penn State, Ohio State hasn't missed a beat.
Long-time NFL coach Matt Patricia has this defense playing lights out, holding opponents to 5.0 points per game while allowing just 25 total points this season.
This defense does it in every aspect of the game. Caden Curry has been wrecking havoc up front and leads the conference in sacks and tackles for loss. The front seven has been terrific against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry and no rushing touchdowns.
Safety Caleb Downs is the best defensive player in the sport and roams the Buckeyes' secondary, keeping everything in front of him. He's elite in coverage and an excellent tackler. Downs is a big reason this Ohio State team is 11th in the country at preventing explosives.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
The Fighting Illini are facing the same questions that they had last year. The team went 10-3 for the first time since 2001 — a tremendous season for this program — but it came up short against the two top-ranked teams it faced.
This year, the Illini got their doors blown off, 63-10, in a big matchup against Indiana. Now, they rebounded very nicely the following week against USC — which was great to see — but they have the toughest test they’ll face all season against Ohio State.
If the Ilini find a way to win this game, they have an extremely manageable schedule the rest of the way and a very realistic path to the College Football Playoff.
Luke Altmyer is playing like a top-10 quarterback in the country and rarely gets credit for it. He ranks sixth in passing yards, seventh in completion percentage and sits fifth in quarterback rating. Altmyer has thrown 12 touchdowns without a single turnover.
After losing Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, Hank Beatty has stepped up and is playing at an All-American level for the Fighting Illini. He has 32 catches for 569 yards with receiving, rushing, passing and punt-return touchdowns this season.
The passing attack has been excellent, which it needs to be because of the status of the lacking rushing attack.
Kaden Feagin and Ca’Lil Valentine have operated as the two main backs, and each average over 50 yards per game. Neither has been super-efficient on the ground, but they're at least able to find the end zone to help Illinois rank 13th in Finishing Drives.
Defensively, the Illini have basically been the inverse of the offense — great against the run but have struggled to defend the pass successfully. Illinois has been torched through the air in three straight weeks, allowing an average of 311 yards and eight touchdowns in three conference games.
Last year, the run defense was a disaster, so at least the Illini look improved in that area, despite Indiana running it all over them. Defensive end Gabe Jacas is still able to get into backfields, but he hasn’t had a ton of help up front.
The secondary has some nice pieces — led by safeties Matthew Bailey and Miles Scott — but any time your safeties are your leading tacklers, it's usually not a great sign.
Ohio State vs. Illinois NCAAF Pick to Bet
The lines feel pretty sharp on both the side and the total here, but I'm going to lean towards the over in this matchup.
Ohio State has yet to allow 10 points in a game, but this is the best offense it's faced all season and certainly the best quarterback it's seen.
Altmyer is an experienced signal caller who protects the football and is extremely accurate. I expect him to be able to make plays and get the ball to Beatty, even against this elite Buckeyes secondary.
Illinois hasn't looked good on defense, especially in the secondary. The Illini have allowed 122 points in the last three weeks.
Sayin should have time to pick apart this defense and find Smith and Tate all over the field. Ohio State continues to look better on offense each week, and I expect it to continue to roll here.
The Fighting Illini can do enough on offense at home to push this number over the total.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-110)
