College Football Odds, Picks for Penn State vs Northwestern
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Allar (Penn State)
Penn State vs Northwestern Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-26.5 -115 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -10000 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+26.5 -105 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +1600 |
The Penn State Nittany Lions will travel to take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, Illinois in this Big Ten clash.
Both teams picked up a conference win last weekend, as Penn State shutout Iowa, 31-0, and Northwestern upset Minnesota as a double-digit underdog, 37-34.
However, Penn State is a heavy favorite in this game at -26.5 on the spread.
Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Penn State vs. Northwestern below.
Penn State has dispatched all four of its opponents this season easily, winning each matchup by at least 17 points. In fact, the game against Illinois was the only one where Penn State's post-game win expectancy was below 98.5%.
The Nittany Lions’ defense has been ridiculously good this year. Currently ranked as the third-best defense in SP+, Penn State ranks first in Defensive Success Rate, first in Havoc and fourth in Finishing Drives.
The Nittany Lions are strong in both facets, ranking second in Passing Success Rate Allowed and fourth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
Penn State's only defensive weakness this season has been its propensity to allow explosive plays, which Northwestern may not be able to exploit.
Offensively, Penn State has been solid, but not quite as good as expected. The Nittany Lions rank 38th in Success Rate and 13th in Finishing Drives. However, they're just 130th in Explosiveness.
Penn State has rushed the ball at the 15th-highest rate in the country to the tune of the 49th-best Rushing Success Rate.
Drew Allar has done well in his first season as the starting quarterback. The sophomore is completing 64% of his passes and averaging 0.18 EPA per play. With him at the helm, the Nittany Lions rank 43rd in Passing Success Rate.
At some point this season, he'll need to start forcing the ball down the field more and generating some explosive plays. But he doesn't need to get aggressive yet against Northwestern.
The Wildcats picked up their first conference win of the season in Week 4, as they won at home in overtime against Minnesota.
However, by post-game win expectancy, this should've been a Northwestern loss. In fact, all four results for Northwestern have been better than the underlying numbers would suggest, which may not be priced into the market.
This season, Northwestern has found some offensive success through its rushing game. The Wildcats rank 21st in Rushing Success Rate but 130th in Rushing Explosiveness and 90th in Rushing Predicted Points Added.
Whether due to choice or game script, Northwestern has been passing at a much higher rate this season. The Wildcats rank 15th in Pass Play Percentage this year but have the 89th-best Passing Success Rate. This drags their overall Success Rate down to 53rd in the country.
This team’s rushing ability may allow it to be competitive in games down the road, but with the expected game script this weekend and Penn State’s personnel advantage, Northwestern will have to continue to throw the ball more, which will hinder its overall offensive output.
Defensively, Northwestern hasn't been the unit that we've come to expect over the years. The Wildcats rank 98th in Defensive Success Rate and 108th in Finishing Drives.
The rushing defense has been better than the passing defense, as the Wildcats rank 69th in Success Rate on the ground compared to 120th through the air.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Northwestern match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 115 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 12 | 110 | |
| Quality Drives | 16 | 84 |
Northwestern Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 128 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 92 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 97 | 1 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 94 | 85 |
| PFF Coverage | 32 | 117 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 107 | 53 |
| Middle 8 | 67 | 58 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (69) | 22.7 (7) |
| Rush Rate | 58.2% (17) | 44.1% (118) |
Penn State vs Northwestern
Betting Pick & Prediction
Northwestern’s offense has performed better than I would've expected at the beginning of the season, but this game doesn't play to the Wildcats' strengths because Penn State is significantly more talented and will dominate Northwestern in the trenches.
Without utilizing the rushing game, Northwestern will struggle to move the ball for much of the day.
Offensively, Penn State may face a bit of resistance from Northwestern’s run defense, but Allar will attack the Wildcats through the air.
This game may look similar to last week’s Penn State vs. Iowa game, but with Northwestern having a much worse defense than Iowa, Penn State will roll here to an easy victory to move to 5-0. The Nittany Lions will cover this large spread in the process.
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