The Rutgers Scarlet Knights take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, Illinois, on Saturday, Nov. 1. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on NBC.
Illinois is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. Rutgers, meanwhile, enters as a +12.5 underdog and is +375 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62.5 total points.
Here’s my Rutgers vs. Illinois prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Rutgers vs Illinois Prediction
- Rutgers vs. Illinois Pick: Over 62.5 (Play to 63.5)
My Illinois vs. Rutgers best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Rutgers vs Illinois Odds
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- Rutgers vs Illinois Spread: Illinois -12.5, Rutgers +12.5
- Rutgers vs Illinois Over/Under: 62.5 Points
- Rutgers vs Illinois Moneyline: Rutgers +375, Illinois -500
Rutgers vs Illinois College Football Betting Preview
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Betting Preview: Sneaky on Offense
This game sets up as the perfect storm for offense, with both teams capable of producing explosive plays and sustaining drives while each defense struggles to get consistent stops.
The Rutgers offense has quietly been one of the more efficient units in the Big Ten, ranking 43rd nationally in EPA Per Pass at +0.14 and 20th in EPA Per Rush at +0.13.
That balance makes the Scarlet Knights unpredictable and multidimensional; they're just as comfortable running inside as they are taking vertical shots.
They’re also racking up 60.2% of available yards, which ranks 12th in the country. This shows that when drives start, they tend to finish them with a score.
Rutgers also does a sensational job on early downs, staying ahead of the sticks and creating favorable down-and-distance situations. Even when they face longer third downs, they’re converting at a 50.4% clip, which ranks 27th nationally.
Those elite drive-sustaining metrics have them sneakily up there as an elite offense.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Struggles on Defense
On the Illinois side, it brings a defense that has been a liability all season, and the main reason totals in its games have been flying over.
The Illini rank 132nd in EPA Per Pass allowed at +0.27 and 123rd in EPA Per Rush at +0.10, which points to severe inefficiency on both levels.
They give up 58.2% of available yards, which is near the bottom nationally, meaning opposing offenses are cashing in on nearly every possession.
They've also struggled on special teams, giving their opponents excellent field position on most of their possessions. They surrender +0.18 EPA Per Play on early downs, ranking 135th, and allow a 46.3% Success Rate on third down, good for just 111th nationally.
Put simply, Illinois doesn’t get off the field, and that’s a significant concern when facing a Rutgers team that knows how to extend and finish drives.
Now that we've established the Rutgers offense as sneaky good, let's waste no further time diving into Illinois' offense.
First off, the Illini rank 20th nationally in EPA Per Pass at +0.23. While their rushing efficiency is average, they can move the chains through quick-hitting throws and spacing concepts that test Rutgers’ secondary.
The Knights' secondary has also been ravaged by injuries, which makes matters even worse, considering they've been a bad unit all season.
Rutgers vs Illinois Pick, Betting Analysis
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer should have plenty of opportunities to shred, and this is a Rutgers defense that was torched last week by Purdue — even if the total point margin doesn't reflect that.
Illinois converts third downs at over a 51% clip and boasts a solid 6.41-yard average distance with a solid short-yardage attack that keeps drives alive.
Combine that with Rutgers’ defensive inefficiencies, allowing +0.27 EPA Per Pass and giving up over 58% of available yards, and we're staring at two offenses that can stay on schedule and two defenses that consistently break down in space.
When you blend those metrics, the narrative becomes clear.
Rutgers will have no issue finding chunk plays against an Illinois defense that ranks near the bottom nationally in most efficiency categories.
Illinois’s offensive pace and passing proficiency will ensure it's trading scores rather than punting, especially since head coach Bret Bielema has shown he's not afraid to go for it on fourth down. Neither is Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano, as it's clear that both coaches lack faith in their defensive units.
We could easily see both teams going for it consistently on fourth down, even in their own ends of the field.
Neither team has consistently shown the ability to flip field position or generate stops on early downs, which means possessions will be extended, and points will light up the scoreboard quickly. This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair.
The analytics, pace profile and matchup dynamics all suggest that this game will exceed the total of 62.5. I'd be shocked to see a low-scoring contest.
Pick: Over 62.5 (Play to 63.5)
Rutgers vs Illinois Betting Trends
