Welcome to the American Conference in 2026.
With the Mountain West and Sun Belt (and potentially Pac-12 in the future) securing College Football Playoff bids in recent years, the American is no longer the clear-cut best conference in the Group of 6.
But that doesn't mean the conference title race won't be fun. At least nine teams have an argument that they're conference contenders, which will make for a fun ride down the stretch.
Navy enters as the conference favorite at +380, followed by UTSA (+500), East Carolina (+580), Memphis (+600) and Tulane (+680).
So, where does the value lie? Let's dive into our 2026 American Conference Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2026 American Conference Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Navy | +380 |
| UTSA | +500 |
| East Carolina | +580 |
| Memphis | +600 |
| Tulane | +680 |
| USF | +800 |
| Army | +850 |
| Florida Atlantic | +1700 |
| North Texas | +2400 |
| Temple | +3100 |
| Tulsa | +3500 |
| Rice | +20000 |
| UAB | +30000 |
| Charlotte | +40000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Thursday, Aug. 13.
Pick to Win American: East Carolina
The American Conference is a parity-driven league where nine teams have viable paths to winning the conference. Well, all nine teams also have questions heading into fall camp.
East Carolina is replacing both coordinators, its starting quarterback and all five starters along the offensive line, but as we've seen time and again in this league, successful teams experience attrition. Every team is forced to reload or rebuild.
Head coach Blake Harrell reloaded with excellent coordinator hires, plucking OC Jordan Davis from North Texas to run a familiar spread tempo scheme, while DC Jordon Hankins comes over from Memphis with the intention of keeping the defense Havoc-minded.
Once the quarterback battle shakes out, the offense will have a clear vision, but there's an abundance of talent at the skill positions surrounding either Mitch Griffis or Emory Williams.
The offensive line will take time to gel together in the nonconference portion of ECU's schedule, which will in all likelihood result in a 2-2 or 3-1 start.
The Pirates will be favored in six conference games this season, with their largest underdog role projected to be no larger than +3.5. In fact, ECU draws my most favorable schedule this season.
In addition to personnel and coaching, the schedule draw is the next most important factor in a 14-team league without divisions.
This program has been building, and ECU brought some major talent in via the portal. I expect another strong season, and if the Pirates defeat either Memphis or Army on the road, there's a decent chance this bunch qualifies for the American title game.
At 10-1, East Carolina is worth a play.
Surprise Contender in American: Tulsa
Tre Lamb and this Tulsa team were far better than their 4-8 record suggests.
Once the quarterback rotation stopped and Baylor Hayes took over, it was evident he was gaining confidence and comfort in the system. That only increased weekly.
Upsets over Oklahoma State and Army on the road showed what this group was capable of when playing its best football, and I expect the close losses from last season to be flipped to wins this time around.
The defensive improvements were measurable, tangible and repeatable. Tulsa improved its yards-per-game allowed mark by 100 while dropping its points-per-game allowed mark by a full two touchdowns.
There are stars in the making ready to put the conference on notice in the defensive front seven. If the secondary continues to improve, this could end up being a defense that finishes in the upper half.
The schedule includes games against Rice, UAB, Charlotte, Temple and FAU. If Tulsa can pull an upset or two against rebuilding South Florida, Memphis or Army, this team could be a surprise contender.
With a price of 40-1, it's not too far-fetched.
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Navy is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in the storied 146-year history of the program, as head coach Brian Newberry has maximized the talent level and potential in Annapolis.
The offense has adjusted well, migrating away from a traditional flexbone triple-option attack and moving to a Wing-T approach, orchestrated by offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who enters his fourth season.
The offense does lose critical cornerstone production pieces that catapulted back-to-back seasons of 31 points per game. In fact, Navy has enjoyed its highest offensive output since Malcolm Perry quarterbacked the Middies from 2016-19.
Reloading at the skill positions and defensive line will be key in determining whether or not Navy can maintain its high level of success in 2026.
Navy Offense
Braxton Woodson takes the control module from the departed Blake Horvath, who put together two excellent seasons under center for Navy.
Woodson is athletic, can run well and throws the ball well despite Navy utilizing a limited passing attack. Woodson has five career 100-yard rushing games and should take strong command of the offense this year.
Replacing the fullback and slot backs will be crucial, as the reliability of Alex Tecza and explosiveness of Brandon Chatman, Eli Heidenreich and Horvath are all voids that need to be filled.
Vic Listorti has been in the system for four years and has three career carries. Charles Robinson will be called on to tote the rock in key situations, and Isaiah Bryant could be explosive on the outside.
The receivers have good size and have been in the system as blockers for some time, so there's minimal lost production from a blocking standpoint. Still, Heidenreich led the team with 941 receiving yards on 51 catches — insane numbers for someone who plays at Navy.
The offensive line is the reliable piece here. The unit welcomes back four starters from last year’s overperforming bunch.
Developing left guards Jake Polito and Will Hampton will be helpful in making this an elite unit in the American.
Navy will also keep a tight end in on Wing-T formations to help with downfield blocking and occasional deep shots in the passing game.
Navy Defense
The defensive line has a pair of excellent defenders to replace, but Aiden Lyczek and Xavyer Arrington appear ready to be elevated to the starting platoon.
The defensive trench is always going to be undersized, but Navy makes up for that with a hybrid 3-3-5/3-4 scheme and quickness in the front seven. This is not an elite unit, but it shouldn’t drop off too badly.
The linebacker play of MarcAnthony Parker, Coleman Cauley and Job Grant will be telling this year. This is a solid starting linebacker unit in the American, but if they don’t live up to the billing, Navy will continue to see its yards and points surrendered increase as they did last year.
The secondary wasn't as strong last season, as the Mids' back end intercepted just seven passes while allowing a 65% completion rate.
The safeties are strong with Giuseppe Sessi and Phillip Hamilton returning, and both cornerbacks, Ira Oniha and Nick Bell, played a decent amount last season. Will Miller is a versatile player with size to walk up to the line of scrimmage but can also play in coverage.
Navy gave up a decent amount of explosiveness last year, and I expect that to continue.
The Midshipmen are also breaking in a new kicker, but punter Jacob Carlson returns. He punted only 37 times last season with a long of 66 yards, and he placed 16 of those punts inside the 20-yard line.
Navy had very little explosiveness in the return game but also has excellent coverage units that rarely surrendered chunk plays in the return game. We can call this special teams unit average.
Navy Schedule Analysis
Despite the personnel shuffling and departure of legacy players, expectations remain high for Navy.
The Midshipmen boast a win total of 8.5, primarily driven by a manageable nonconference schedule and a league slate that grades out as my second-easiest.
Navy finds itself a heavy favorite in the opener against Towson, along with its next three games, all on the road at Florida Atlantic, UAB and Air Force.
Tulsa comes in for what will be Navy’s first home game in 35 days since the opener. A trip to UTSA could be trouble given how the Roadrunners can defend the Alamodome, while a home date with North Texas provides a soft landing.
A neutral-site game against Notre Dame is unwinnable, and the Mids will have to regroup quickly for a home date with Temple.
After a second bye (the late Army game triggers two byes), Memphis comes to town for what is always a close, hard-fought battle.
Navy then goes to Charlotte on the road in what could be a sneaky tough ATS spot. The annual Army-Navy game will conclude the regular season on Dec. 12.
I do think there are nine losable games on this schedule, and Navy plays just five true home games this season.
I'll seek to play under the win total of 8.5, as 7-8 wins appear more realistic for this bunch.
Spots to Play Navy
- vs. North Texas
- vs. Memphis
Spots to Fade Navy
- @ Florida Atlantic
- @ Air Force
- @ UTSA
- Neutral vs. Notre Dame
Navy Players to Watch
- QB Braxton Woodson
- SB Charles Robinson
- LB Coleman Cauley
- S Giuseppe Sessi
- DE Aiden Lyczek
Pick: Navy Under 8.5 Wins (Lean · -190)
We love Meep Meep at Action Network. UTSA is a program our team has rallied around for the better part of 10 years.
Head coach Jeff Traylor has maintained a consistent winning program and has bypassed whisperings of better job opportunities in the process.
Things haven’t been as easy since moving to the American in 2023, but three straight bowl seasons have elevated the program floor, with the Roadrunners looking to take that next step this season.
New offensive coordinator Rick Bowie looks to shake up the offense, but the defense has work to do as well if UTSA wants to hang another banner.
UTSA Offense
The quarterback position is firmly solidified. Owen McCown returns for another year and will finish as the second-leading passer in program history when all is said and done.
McCown battled injury last season, which affected his play against the tougher teams in league play. Avoiding injury here is paramount because the drop-off to backup Brandon Tennison is significant.
Will Henderson III is a guy who's ready to explode in the running back room. Henderson ran for 866 yards while splitting carries but has been elevated to the starting lineup and should eclipse 1,000 yards this season.
Brandon High Jr. and A’Marion Peterson have some wiggle and pop. This running back room will be used more appropriately this year, which will make the offense more productive and effective.
The receiver room is down a notch after UTSA loses four of its top five pass-catchers from last season. AJ Wilson and David Amador II are going to find more of the target share, with Jamel Hardy Jr. and TJ West ready to emerge.
UTSA has had elite tight end play in the past. The offense creates advantages for the position, so replacing three departing tight ends is important here.
Brandon Young and Ty Rupe have incredible size and will create mismatches in this league. Miles Campbell is a receiving threat, so this could morph into a strong overall group.
The offensive line has held up well in the system, and three starters return in 2026.
Luke Lapeze ran with the twos most of the year last season but did play in 10 games with a pair of starts. He'll be elevated to the starting center position.
The guards are set with Ben Rios and Darrell Jones. As long as the tackles fit in, this offensive line will be strong.
UTSA Defense
Traylor has hung his hat on defensive physicality, toughness and Havoc. He called it the “Triangle of Toughness,” and it was not there last year. The sacks and tackles for loss tapered off, and UTSA wasn't as strong against the run.
The defensive line must produce in the system.
Without a defined front, we could see three-, four-, and five-man fronts at times with a rotation of up to eight players. Jeremiah Bailey, Tai Leonard and Jusiah Sampleton appear to be the top guys, but Drenon Fite III and Jameian Buxton will also log significant snaps.
The linebacker group is also down a notch, but Owen Pewee is a guy who can elevate the play of everyone else in the room.
Elijah Baldwin and Brandon Tucker will be elevated to the starting platoon, and a trio of former three-star players round out the two-deep.
The secondary loses all four starters from last season and is a hard reset.
Ahamad Chapman and Asaad Chapman appear to have the cornerback positions nailed down, but a rotation of players could change the look.
Xavier Walton and Nate Robinson Jr. transfer in at safety, and there are players in the two-deep who can elevate the performance of this group so long as an effective pass rush emerges.
UTSA Schedule Analysis
UTSA is everybody’s darling to win the American every season, but it hasn’t done it yet.
The main culprit is extreme dichotomy in performance when at home vs. on the road. The Roadrunners are just 5-13 straight up (6-12 ATS) on the road over the last three seasons. Last year’s road performances featured blowout losses to North Texas and USF, along with losing at Temple as favorites.
The nonconference portion of the schedule features back-to-back road games against Texas and Texas State after a home game against FCS UTRGV in the season opener.
Week 4 is a spot I have circled to play UTSA at home while hosting Colorado State. The schedule in conference play is favorable, with road games at Rice, Tulane, FAU and UAB all appearing winnable. The Roadrunners could be favored in all of them.
Home games against USF and Navy allow an opportunity for UTSA to gain inside positioning in the conference standings.
Hosting Tulsa at the end of the season could be a very interesting game with high stakes if Tulsa lives up to its end of the bargain.
I think the Roadrunners are a strong contender in the wide-open American. They're one of nine teams that could win the league — if they can start winning on the road.
Spots to Play UTSA
- vs. Colorado State
- vs. USF
- vs. Navy
Spots to Fade UTSA
- @ Texas State
- @ Tulane
- @ Florida Atlantic
UTSA Players to Watch
- QB Owen McCown
- RB Will Henderson III
- WR AJ Wilson
- LB Owen Pewee
- LB Elijah Baldwin
Pick: Pass
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Blake Harrell has done an excellent job in Greenville, going 14-5 in his short tenure with the Pirates, with both seasons capped off by Military Bowl wins over Power 4 opponents.
Handling major talent losses and replacing both coordinators will be a new challenge for ECU this season, but Harrell has his fingerprints all over this defense, which will once again have a strong front and force pressure on opposing quarterbacks while linebackers shoot the gaps.
The offense has a quarterback battle to settle, but we're going to see big plays, fast pace and a dynamic running element. The drop-off won't be as drastic as some might expect, given the circumstances.
East Carolina Offense
Emory Williams and Mitch Griffis are deadlocked in a 50/50 quarterback battle that might not get settled until deep into fall camp. It’s a big decision and one that new offensive coordinator Jordan Davis wants to get right.
Davis orchestrated an electric offense at North Texas, so I expect pace, deep shots and plenty of points for ECU this season.
Marshall running back transfer Michael Allen was a nice grab in the portal, but he might share some carries with North Texas transfer Ashton Gray and TJ Engleman Jr., who ran for 306 yards for the Pirates last year.
Three or even four backs could share the workload, which could pay off down the stretch as ECU navigates the wear-and-tear problems other teams sustain at this position.
The receiver room looks great as well.
Brock Spalding is a consistent, sure-handed receiver who caught 42 passes last season. Landon Sides comes over from UNT and will contribute immediately, while Ja’Keith Hamilton, Tyler Johnson and Jaquaize Pettaway round out the two-deep.
The offensive line must gel together quickly in the nonconference portion of the schedule, as all five starters are new.
Hayes Creel comes over after starting at Southern Miss, while Bryce Weaver gets elevated to the starting platoon after running with the twos last year. Brandon Best was an All-CUSA selection for Kennesaw State last year, while Ethan Kramer played in the Big Sky for years and knows what it takes to succeed on a college offensive line.
Karson Jones was out for the season last year and must come back ready to go for this unit to succeed.
ECU went through long stretches against tough competition without being able to run the ball last season, something it can't repeat in 2026.
East Carolina Defense
The defensive line has the potential to be nasty by American standards.
Jasiyah Robinson could threaten double-digit sacks after racking up five last year, and Preston Carr and Rion Roseborough make the leap to the starting lineup this year.
Kieran Davis and Kendrick DuJour should split time at end. Between the two of them, they could end up posting really nice numbers.
DJ Johnson Jr. leads the linebacker group and will benefit from the elevated play of his counterpart, Crews Law, who comes over from Memphis. Jackson Barker and Jayden Olden round out the two-deep.
The secondary should settle in nicely behind a stout front seven, and the coaches really like FIU transfer Ashton Levells-Mitchell.
Jaylen Bowden comes over from Minnesota, and Kevon Merrell Jr. should log plenty of time at the nickel position.
The safeties will likely rotate before a starting platoon is sorted out, but Zyeir Gamble, Ayden Duncanson and Myles Pollard figure to play plenty.
Special teams-wise, ECU will break in a new punter and kicker this season. The return game also wasn't overly dynamic last year.
I'd grade this special teams unit as an average group, but adding some zip in the return game would certainly help.
East Carolina Schedule Analysis
East Carolina opens its season against Alabama in Tuscaloosa in a tough road environment. The next three games in the nonconference portion of the schedule feature regional foes in App State, Old Dominion and FCS NC Central.
Anything worse than 2-1 in those three games would be a failure, but 3-0 is certainly possible.
ECU plays my most manageable conference slate this year, avoiding Navy, Tulane and UTSA, and catching each of the projected bottom three finishers in Rice, UAB and Charlotte.
The road slate is manageable, but road games at Memphis and Army could determine whether or not ECU contends for an American title.
The two toughest conference foes on paper are going through major roster and coaching overhauls, so there are opportunities for this group to rack up conference wins quickly.
Harrell has done an excellent job at ECU, and the Pirates are a clear contender in a congested American Conference.
Spots to Play East Carolina
- vs. Rice
- vs. USF
Spots to Fade East Carolina
- @ UAB
- @ Army
East Carolina Players to Watch
- RB Michael Allen
- DB Zyeir Gamble
- LB Crews Law
- WR Brock Spalding
- WR Landon Sides
- DL Jasiyah Robinson
Pick: Pass
A new era begins in Memphis, as former head coach Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas, opening the door for Charles Huff to continue his ascent.
It has been a whirlwind 18-month timeline for Huff, who went from being unwanted at Marshall to flipping the roster and team expectations at Southern Miss, making good on his promise and jetting before seeing it through to completion.
His task now will be maintaining the success of a team that hasn’t had a losing season in 12 years.
Replacing reliable pieces that made the offense click will be key this season, along with revamping a new-look defense under defensive coordinator Lance Guidry.
Memphis Offense
The quarterback battle features West Florida transfer Marcus Stokes and South Carolina transfer Air Noland. The two are locked in a heated quarterback race that should go deep into fall camp.
Noland hasn't played much but does have higher upside, while Stokes tore up the D-II ranks, a common theme among college quarterbacks gaining national media attention and hype.
This race is one to watch as we head into fall camp, and the decision — or delay in the decision — will be telling.
Dallan Hayden is a nice running back addition from Colorado and should get carries alongside Jaylin Carter, who played in nine games at Southern Miss last season.
The receiver group welcomes Tychaun Chapman, who followed Huff from Marshall and Southern Miss, Colorado transfer Terrell Timmons Jr. and Kansas State transfer Jemyri Davis. Brady Kluse caught 22 passes here last year and is a solid and reliable third-down option.
Hunter Tipton will also catch passes from the tight end position.
The offensive line should be anchored by Aaron Karas and Phillip Gray, who are joined by a pair of reliable players from Old Dominion. Maarten Woudsma and Skyler Grant each played in over three dozen games in Norfolk, and Koby Keenum could also contend for starting snaps.
I don’t think this offensive line is exceptional, but given what walked out the door, the transfer haul has to be considered successful.
Memphis Defense
The new-look 4-2-5 defense has a full personnel rebuild at all three levels.
J’Mond Tapp and Joseph Head Jr. should provide solid pressure off the edge, while Jaden McKinney, Taylor Burton and J’Mari Monette shore up the interior spots.
There's depth along the defensive line, so this unit could generate more pressure.
Mike Montgomery comes over at middle linebacker from Southern Miss and should elevate the play of his running mate, either Jayden Parrish or Zach Ruffin.
The secondary will rely on Ellis Ellis Jr. to play cornerback alongside Chauncey Logan Jr., one of the few defensive players who played at Memphis last year.
Ahmere Foster comes in from Southern Miss, while Dylan Smith moves over after starting at safety occasionally at Oklahoma State.
Ian Foster and Beni Mwamba will split time at the nickel position. Based on the pass coverage numbers at Southern Miss last season, this unit could remain strong once again.
The special teams unit welcomes Philippe LaForge to handle the kicking duties, which he did periodically at Coastal Carolina. Harrison Tuck transfers in from the FCS level as the primary punter.
Memphis will also be breaking in a new long snapper and return specialists. This unit remains a mystery overall.
Memphis Schedule Analysis
Memphis plays a challenging nonconference schedule, including road trips to Las Vegas and Boise State and a home game against regional foe Arkansas State before hosting FCS UT-Martin.
After an early bye week (one of two due to playing in Week 0), Memphis hits the road to Charlotte before hosting the “Battle for the Bones” against UAB, which triggers a stretch of three games in 12 days. The other two opponents during that stretch are Tulane on the road and East Carolina at home.
Then, Army comes in on Halloween night. Back-to-back road games at USF and Navy await following a second bye week before the Tigers concludes their season at home against Temple.
Eight bowl teams from a year ago make their way onto the schedule after Memphis defeated two such teams last season.
The easiest conference games come right away, giving the Tigers an opportunity to gain some confidence, but the last six games will be a grind.
I think it’s a small step back for Memphis this season, so I played under the win total of 7.5.
Spots to Play Memphis
- @ USF
Spots to Fade Memphis
- @ Boise State
- @ Charlotte
- vs. Army
- @ Navy
Memphis Players to Watch
- DL J'Mond Tapp
- S Ian Foster
- S Ahmere Foster
- CB Anthony Richard Jr.
- TE Hunter Tipton
- QB Battle — Air Noland vs. Marcus Stokes
Pick: Memphis Under 7.5 Wins (-125)
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As is so often the case as a Group of 6 participant, success on the football field is followed by an almost immediate coaching search.
Tulane posted back-to-back successful seasons under Jon Sumrall with strong showings against Power 4 competition and an American Conference title.
Will Hall comes back to Tulane, where he was the offensive coordinator from 2019-20. Russ Callaway comes over as the OC, while DC Tayler Polk was retained.
Replacing nine all-conference performers and navigating a brutal schedule draw will be primary tasks in Year 1 under Hall.
There's talent in the building, one Hall is familiar with. But even he would admit that a repeat double-digit win season would take a Mardi Gras miracle.
Tulane Offense
The offense sees Kadin Semonza and Zeon Chriss-Gremillion locked in a quarterback battle that has spilled over into fall camp.
Semonza is a clear option with better skills as a passer, and my guess would be that he wins the job.
The big blow in fall camp was that Jamauri McClure, the feature back, has been sidelined with an injury and will miss time, likely including the opener.
Jaylin Lucas and Johnnie Daniels will have opportunities to run with the first string due to that injury situation.
The receiver room loses production, but Destyn Hill could be the next big-play receiver after transferring in from LSU. Anthony Brown-Stephens and Zycarl Lewis Jr. should also see a decent amount of the target share in this offense.
The Wave want to run the ball more which will be predicated by repatching the offensive line which saw four starters from last season depart. Transfers from FIU and Boston College will join Reese Baker and a pair of last year’s 2nd platoon to round out the unit. Depth is a concern so avoiding injuries in the offensive trenches will be paramount.
Tulane Defense
The defensive line has created an exceptional amount of Havoc over the last three seasons while also being tough against the run.
It’s a full reset this season, as Ed Smith IV, Jordan McAllister and Geordan Guidry enter to compete for time. Derrick Shepard should anchor the interior.
The linebacker room has some talent with Dickson Agu, Dalton Hughes and Makai Williams joining the rotation. Chris Rodgers is the guy the Green Wave can rely on to be an on-field leader, and he should be all over the field this year.
The secondary returns Jack Tchienchou and E’zaiah Shine from last year's starting unit while adding in transfers from South Florida, Texas Tech and Nicholls State to round out the starting rotation.
There's some fluidity in the position placement among this group given the scheme, where we could see all of these players in an outside cornerback role, inside at the nickel spot or at safety.
Tulane special teams have been elite nationally for years, but the Wave will be breaking in a new kicker and punter this season. Jackson Courville transferred in from Ohio State, but he played more frequently at Ball State prior to that. Brooks Moore is an unproven punter, so we don't know what to expect from that unit.
Tulane had a great kickoff return unit that achieved 596 return yards last year, and the offense would benefit greatly from explosiveness out of that group once again.
Tulane Schedule Analysis
This team has talent, but the schedule is vicious.
Road trips to Duke and Kansas State will find the Wave pegged as underdogs of 10 points or more. Regional foes South Alabama and Southern Miss come to Yulman Stadium, so a 2-2 nonconference start is likely.
Tulane will cut its teeth in American play against the cream of the crop with a road trip to Army followed by home games against Memphis and UTSA. We'll know right away whether or not this team is a contender for a third straight conference title appearance or fighting for a bowl game appearance after this stretch.
A road trip to Charlotte is followed by a visit from Tulsa, which will be better than expected. Tulane will take on Rice and South Florida on the road and North Texas at home during the last three weeks.
The bones are there for this team to be good, but I anticipate a step back this season. Seven or eight wins seems about right here, but if the quarterback struggles and the defense creates significantly less Havoc, 6-6 is also possible.
Spots to Play Tulane
- vs. South Alabama
- vs. Southern Miss
Spots to Fade Tulane
- @ Kansas State
- @ Charlotte
- @ Rice
Tulane Players to Watch
- QB Battle
- RB Jamauri McClure
- DL Derrick Shepard Jr.
- DL Ed Smith IV
- LB Chris Rodgers
Pick: Pass
A common theme among the successful Group of 6 programs has been head coaches leaving for bigger programs and greener pastures — and wallets — while taking the talent with them on the way out.
USF saw this firsthand when Alex Golesh bolted for Auburn, taking 13 players with him.
Brian Hartline was hired away from Ohio State to execute a program reload. A new-look offense and more physical defense could be the result, with offensive coordinator Tim Beck and defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge being hired.
In all, South Florida brought in 41 new players through the portal. A manageable schedule keeps a bowl game firmly in play, and if the transfers hit, this team could contend for a conference title berth.
South Florida Offense
The offensive system is one to watch, as Hartline delivered top-tier wide receiver talent annually at Ohio State, but the tempo operated at one of the slowest paces in the entire country.
Beck ran a lightning-quick pace at Coastal Carolina, and with conflicting offensive ideologies in play, I really want to see what shakes out with the quarterback battle in fall camp.
Michael Van Buren Jr. and Luke Kromenhoek are deadlocked in a QB race that will likely be settled deep into fall camp.
The pro-style attack will likely feature Alvon Isaac and D.J. Crowther as the featured backs, with Jason Collins Jr. coming in as a third-down back.
The receiver room lost a lot of talent in the portal but backfilled nicely. Bryson Rodgers, Arhmad Branch, Kenny Odom and Armani Winfield have a ton of upside. This receiver group should be explosive.
The offensive line will undergo a full reset, as all five starters from last season are gone.
Portal adds from Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Navy, Arizona, Appalachian State and Cincinnati should provide size, depth and experience even in the two-deep.
Offensive line coach Mike Sollenne came with Hartline from Ohio State and will have his hands on the rotation. Unlocking the right combination will likely determine how potent this offense can become.
South Florida Defense
The defense received an immediate boost when Aldridge came over from East Carolina to run the stop unit.
ECU produced a high-pressure scheme that fared very well in the American, and there are opportunities for growth heading into 2026.
All but one starter departed, but the defensive line was rebuilt nicely with C.J. Hicks, Marshon Oxley and Asani Redwood coming in and joining holdover Michael Williams II.
This unit has depth and quickness. That should allow the linebackers to thrive in this system.
Zavier Hamilton, Grayson Howard and Sam Robinson are the frontrunners to earn the majority of linebacker snaps. If these guys hit, the defense could really end up being a strength.
The secondary has some good talent to work with, as Za’Quan Bryan and Ayden Jackson will compete for time at cornerback. Tavin Ward is an experienced safety who should lead the back end well, and the rotational depth should round into form early.
Nico Gramatica is back at kicker, providing a reliable option. Luke Goater should be a serviceable option at punter. Isaac is a decent return specialist who should provide more explosiveness to a middling return game.
South Florida Schedule Analysis
The 2026 USF schedule isn't overly daunting, with a nonconference slate that features a weak FCS team in Delaware State, two below-average MAC teams in Bowling Green and Kent State, and in-state foe FIU.
Anything other than a 4-0 nonconference record would be viewed as a disappointment.
The conference schedule, however, poses other challenges, grading out as my most difficult American docket. USF avoids Navy but plays all the other top contenders while missing North Texas, Rice and Charlotte.
The road slate is brutal, with trips to Army, UTSA, East Carolina and Florida Atlantic on the schedule. The Bulls also welcome in Temple, UAB off a bye, Memphis off a bye, and conclude the season at home against Tulane.
USF has lost three or more games on the road in each of the last eight years. With a new roster, new staff, new preparation methods and a brutal conference road slate, it's safe to say the road growing pains will remain.
While this is one of the nine teams I believe can win this conference, I'm passing on the win total. The most likely result would be 7-8 wins.
Spots to Play South Florida
- vs. Kent State
- vs. Tulane
Spots to Fade South Florida
- @ Army
- @ UTSA
- @ East Carolina
South Florida Players to Watch
- DE C.J. Hicks
- WR Kenny Odom
- QB Michael Van Buren Jr.
- RB D.J. Crowther
- WR Bryson Rodgers
Pick: Pass
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Army struggled last season after losing much of the reliable offensive talent that led the Black Knights to an 11-1 start in 2024 while being crowned American Conference champions.
Quarterback play was inconsistent, and the team completely gave games away against Tarleton State, Tulane and Tulsa. The magic had run out, and a loss to rival Navy left Army at 6-6 and searching for answers.
The ground attack lost a significant amount of explosiveness, but it was the short-yardage effectiveness that suffered most. Third-down, fourth-down and red-zone conversion percentage all dropped, causing a reliable operation to be squeezed into very uncomfortable situations where the Black Knights couldn't get it done.
Army is going to have to elevate the play of its offense as the defense loses key personnel that has made this a formidable stop unit and will now be breaking in a new defensive coordinator.
Army Offense
Cale Hellums took over for Dewayne Coleman halfway through last season, but a lack of weapons around him caused too much reliance on the quarterback run game.
Hellums had more rushing attempts than any other four players combined, notching 302 attempts for 1,223 yards and 18 touchdowns.
This offense will be better this year if he isn’t carrying that much of the load.
Running back Godspower Nwawuihe shined in the bowl game and will be a force this season, along with a fully healthy Jake Rendina. Samari Howard must emerge as an explosive pitch man, though. If that happens, this offense will once again be very fun.
The offensive line returns four starters. This unit should pave the way for the offense to threaten 300 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry on the season.
Army was exquisite in pass protection and surrendered sacks on only 5% of dropbacks. I expect similar numbers to ensue.
Army Defense
The defensive line is always going to be undersized given the circumstances surrounding recruiting and requirements at Army, so the one player who has a decent amount of size, Kody Harris-Miller, must stay healthy.
Harris-Miller was oft-injured last season but is a full go for fall camp, and Jack Bousum will be called on to provide more of a pass rush.
The linebacker unit loses its top four from last season, so Noah Nixon and Baylor Newsom will be elevated to the starting platoon.
Daryl Dixon was elevated to the defensive coordinator role and plans to run an aggressive blitz scheme, so these linebackers have the potential to make this defense look really good or foolish depending on the play of those in the room.
The secondary replaces five from last year’s two-deep, with Jaydan Mayes serving as a clear leader on the back end. Stephen Nnadozie and Caleb Williams will be called upon as full-time starting safeties.
While there's some talent here, I don't expect the pass defense numbers to be as strong.
Army returns both its starting kicker and punter this season but really needs a return specialist to emerge. The Black Knights recorded just 117 combined punt return and kick return yards all season.
There's very little explosiveness in the return game, and a field-flipping return man would do wonders for Army's offensive production.
Army Schedule Analysis
Army plays my sixth-hardest American Conference schedule this season, but the Knights avoid Navy (as a conference game) and UTSA. The issue is that Army also avoids UAB and Charlotte, two teams it feasted on last season in a down year.
The schedule affords Army a pair of winnable games early against FCS Bryant and South Florida early in the season before the Bulls define who they want to be offensively.
After an early bye week, Army has back-to-back road games at Temple and Louisiana Tech. A 1-1 split here is likely.
Two more home games follow, as the Knights host Tulane and FAU, but both are coming off bye weeks themselves, so Army will be at a rest disadvantage.
The Cadets go to Tulsa on a short week, and another long road trip awaits after that, as the Knights travel to Memphis, which will be coming off a rivalry game against UAB.
Two tough “play-up” games against Tulane and East Carolina are also on the docket.
The brutal seven-game gauntlet concludes with the first installment of the Commander-in-Chief series, as Army hosts Air Force before a much-needed second bye week.
The schedule is brutal; there's no way around it.
The seven-game stretch with four road games and three tough home opponents will determine whether conference contention is a realistic possibility or if Army will end up just scratching its way to a bowl game in 2026.
Spots to Play Army
- vs. USF
- vs. East Carolina
Spots to Fade Army
- @ Temple
- @ Tulsa
- @ Rice
Army Players to Watch
- QB Cale Hellums
- RB Godspower Nwawuihe
- RB Jake Rendina
- LB Noah Nixon
- CB Jaydan Mayes
Pick: Pass
Last season was a learning experience for everyone involved at Florida Atlantic.
Head coach Zach Kittley learned the hard way that flippantly going for it on fourth down no matter where FAU was on the field can be painful, as can not kicking field goals in the red zone.
The defense faded down the stretch, and the result was a unit that surrendered 437 yards and 36.3 points per game.
The Owls now enter the second year of both systems, and an exquisite portal churn should make both sides of the ball stronger.
Florida Atlantic Offense
The offense is led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp, a clear-cut starter and a cornerstone for what this offense wants to do.
Veltkamp threw for 3,641 yards with 24 touchdowns last season but suffered a shoulder injury that undoubtedly affected his play. With that fully healed, a 4,000-yard, 35-touchdown season will be within reach.
The running game was weak last season despite a concerted effort to run the ball regularly.
Kaden Shields-Dutton returns after shining occasionally last season. He'll garner the bulk of the carries with Leonard Farrow in the mix for touches in a spell capacity.
The receiver room has talent, but it must step up this season.
Easton Messer will catch 100 passes again as long as he stays healthy, but other playmakers need to emerge. Dominique Henry and RJ Garcia II are reliable starters, and Kelby Valsin should be another serviceable outlet when the Owls are in 10 personnel.
This group should turn heads in Boca Raton this season.
The offensive line returns starting center Vincent Fiacable, who's moving to right guard, and left tackle Ja’Kavion Nonar. A pair of FCS starters join Benjamin Galloway, who played occasional snaps at Georgia Tech, looking to round out the starting unit.
FAU gave up sacks on just 3.6% of dropbacks last season, but the unit couldn't pave the way for rushing success. That created two glaring deficiencies.
The Owls ranked 95th nationally in third-down conversion percentage and 124th in the red zone. They must improve on those numbers to reach bowl eligibility.
Florida Atlantic Defense
The defensive line proved to be Swiss cheese last season. The Owls allowed over 200 rushing yards per game while generating just 19 sacks against FBS competition.
CJ Doggette Jr. is the alpha in the defensive line room and should anchor the interior better this year. Jonathan Bax also comes in to provide a more consistent pass rush. Jay Crable and Deshaun Batiste will factor in and provide rotational depth, as well.
The linebacker room will be anchored by Leon Hart Jr. and Khmari Johnson. Joseph Sipp Jr. is a guy who could thrive in the system, and Zyere Horton could also crack the two-deep.
The secondary must improve. At times last year, the Owls' back-end defense was caught out of position.
Chris Tooley III will contribute from the nickel position, and JK Johnson and Damarius McGhee should elevate the play at cornerback.
Damon Allen and Jayden Sweeney played a decent amount last year and should improve with another year of experience behind them. Either way, this team must cover better and develop ball skills in order to disrupt and intercept more passes.
The special teams unit was excellent last year and figures to be strong again.
Former All-American kicker Collin Rogers transfers in from SMU, while Reed Chandley comes in from Georgia State to handle the punting duties.
Messer was a reliable punt return specialist but may step away from that role this year, so new returners need to emerge.
Florida Atlantic Schedule Analysis
Florida Atlantic is a trendy contender in the American this season, and for good reason. The schedule draw in the nonconference is one where FAU can find the win column.
After a trip to face Florida at the Swamp in the opener, the Owls get Navy at home. Rival FIU comes in after that, followed by a road trip to ULM — two games FAU should be favored in.
Texas Southern heads to Boca Raton before the bye week, and if FAU can somehow pull an upset against Florida or Navy, the Owls could be looking at a 4-1 start.
The schedule tightens up after the bye week, which is well-timed to install option defense principles prior to facing Army and Rice.
A trip to North Texas on a short week follows, and UTSA comes to Boca off a bye week the following Thursday.
Two of the last three games are roadies to Tulsa and East Carolina, sandwiching a home bout with South Florida.
I project FAU to be an underdog in six of its final seven games using my preseason power ratings, but its on-field performance has the potential to flip the script on what these spreads will look like week to week.
Overall, this schedule ranks as my second-toughest in American play this season. The Owls catch all the top contenders except Memphis while missing Temple, UAB and Charlotte.
A bowl game remains in play, but anything further will require four outright upsets to be pulled, spearheaded by significant defensive improvement.
Spots to Play Florida Atlantic
- vs. Navy
- vs. Texas Southern
- vs. UTSA
Spots to Fade Florida Atlantic
- @ Tulsa
- @ ULM
Florida Atlantic Players to Watch
- QB Caden Veltkamp
- WR Easton Messer
- EDGE Jonathan Bax
- LB Joseph Sipp Jr.
- LB Leon Hart Jr.
- CB JK Johnson
Pick: Pass
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North Texas just delivered its best season in program history.
In fact, the Mean Green were favored in every single game in 2025, went 12-2 and played for a conference title before winning the New Mexico Bowl in thrilling fashion over San Diego State.
However, the coaching staff bolted for Oklahoma State, and a massive exodus of talent left Denton during the portal window.
Head coach Neal Brown was hired to replace Eric Morris, and he responded by working the portal to overhaul the roster. The roster isn't in that bad of shape, but the schedule is much tougher in nonconference play.
UNT boasted an elite offense and an overperforming defense last season, but I'm not sure they have either in 2026. Getting to a bowl game would be an accomplishment in itself.
North Texas Offense
Tayven Jackson transferred in and is the clear frontrunner to start under center.
Jackson should be comfortable in an Air Raid system that will occasionally use tempo. His experience taking command of the huddle during his time at Indiana and UCF will help him here.
Running back Jahiem White could flourish here after being reunited with Brown, whom he played for at West Virginia. Nick Osho and Jayden Becks will split the backup duties.
There's a decent influx of talent at the wide receiver position, headlined by Corri Milliner and James Tyre. Josiah Martin also comes in after spending a redshirt year at the Power 4 level.
While there's not an elite go-to receiver, this group should give North Texas an average American passing attack at minimum.
The offensive line won't be elite, but it's not in too bad of shape given the circumstances.
Chandler Strong comes in after four years at Georgia Southern, while Henry Fenuku, Neto Umeozulu and Johnny Williams IV transfer down from the Power 4 level.
The tackles have good size and strength, but communication and working together as a unit will be tested early in the nonconference portion of the schedule.
North Texas Defense
The defensive alignment will ask the front to apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks, as defensive coordinator Matt Powledge looks to execute his 4-2-5 scheme.
David Onuoha and Davion Rhodes will be tasked with that pressure, while Terrell Washington and Justin Benton plug holes in the middle.
Zakye Barker and Aaron Alexander are scheduled to be the top linebackers, with Cedric Roberts and Jaden Manning likely to work into the rotation.
The secondary welcomes Caden Jenkins in at cornerback with Chase Canada and Peyton Taylor splitting time on the other side of the alignment.
Safety Brandon Jones played 11 games at McNeese last year, and Taye Seymore has Power 4 experience after playing at Georgia Tech.
BJ Allen Jr. played for North Texas last year and should work into the rotation at nickel, which ends up being a pivotal position in the secondary in this scheme.
Special teams will be working in new players at every position.
Dominic De Freitas comes over from Appalachian State to handle the kicking, and Ian Ratliff comes in from Texas at punter.
Return specialists also need to emerge after the Mean Green produced average return units a season ago. There's not a "wow" factor here, but special teams shouldn't lose UNT games in 2026.
North Texas Schedule Analysis
The American Conference schedule isn't overly daunting, checking in as my third-easiest slate.
The issue is the nonconference portion. North Texas faces Indiana, UNLV and Texas State in nonconference play, and two of those come on the road.
The Mean Green will defeat FCS Houston Baptist before opening conference play at Tulsa. A 1-4 start isn't unrealistic.
Home games against UAB, Charlotte and Rice are all winnable. There's a home game against FAU mixed in, but the road slate is tough.
North Texas draws Navy with an extra week to prepare for the option, but road games at Tulane and UTSA in back-to-back weeks are likely losses.
I think this team struggles to make a bowl game. Six wins is likely the ceiling.
Spots to Play North Texas
- vs. Houston Baptist
Spots to Fade North Texas
- @ Tulsa
- @ Navy
- vs. Florida Atlantic
- vs. Rice
- @ UTSA
North Texas Players to Watch
- RB Jahiem White
- WR Corri Milliner
- LB Aaron Alexander
- QB Tayven Jackson
- DL David Onuoha
Pick: North Texas Under 6.5 Wins (-230)
Despite another losing season in Philadelphia, K.C. Keeler made great strides with Temple in his first year in the City of Brotherly Love.
The Owls were much tougher against the run defensively, and the Havoc numbers increased slightly. This defense was a laughingstock the two years prior to Keeler taking over, and we saw an immediate injection of energy and intensity on that side of the ball.
The offense threw the ball more efficiently, and Temple was 1-2 plays away from turning what ended up being a 5-7 season into a potential bowl game.
Keeler will continue to establish his culture and carry over his winning pedigree. In his previous stops as a head coach, Keeler has hit his stride in Year 2, and I expect the toughness and positive attitude to continue as this gets turned into a winning locker room.
Both coordinators were retained during the offseason, which will provide much-needed continuity as well.
Temple Offense
While replacing the production at quarterback will be difficult, Jaxon Smolik and Ajani Sheppard will seek to do just that. The QB race is one to watch in the American this season, and it will set the tone for what this offense is capable of.
Hunter Smith and Sam Brown provide a capable 1-2 punch at running back, with Keveun Mason serving in a spell capacity.
The tight end room is a talent-defining position here, and Peter Clarke is one of the best at the G6 level. Clarke caught 30 passes last season with a half-dozen of them going for touchdowns. His size, along with Ryder Kusch and Daniel Evert, should contribute in the run-blocking department as well.
JoJo Bermudez is a great target out of the slot, and Colin Chase is a reliable possession receiver on the outside.
The offensive line returns four starters from last year’s group that took great strides in 2025. The sack and Havoc allowed numbers dropped significantly, and the rushing offense was leaps and bounds ahead of where it was in 2024.
Grayson Mains, Jackson Pruitt and Eric King are the leaders of this bunch, and if right tackle Luke Watson emerges, this is going to be an elite-level offensive line in the American.
Temple Defense
The defense has to find Havoc creators along the defensive line. Kaleb Artis, Jaylon Joseph and Cameron Jones appear ready to take that task head-on.
The interior has size, and with the scheme relying on interchangeable three- and four-man schemes, we should see rotational players with opportunities to make plays.
The linebacker group is shored up nicely with Curly Ordonez, Eric Stuart and Tyree Alualu all back. Depth pieces were added in the portal, and this group will be what holds this defense together.
The secondary loses three starters from last season, but the reliable Avery Powell is back at safety. Denzel Chavis will contend with Jett White and Earl Kulp for time at the cornerback position after it was announced that Devontae Ward-Grant will be out for the season.
Temple retains kicker Carl Hardin, who nailed 11 field goals out of 14 attempts last season with a long of 52. Punter Dante Atton netted 42.2 yards per punt on 62 kicks.
The return game was mediocre, but the coverage units were strong. This will round into a top-five special teams unit in the American.
Temple Schedule Analysis
While I project 5.6 wins, I have Temple as a clear-cut favorite in five games. The Owls have a great home schedule, which includes Rhode Island (a good FCS team that will give Temple a four-quarter fight), UConn, Charlotte, UAB and Rice.
If the Owls want to get out of the third-tier grouping, they'll have a chance to earn it by defeating the rest of the teams that make up that tier.
Army is another winnable home game. The road slate is nasty, with trips to Toledo, South Florida, East Carolina, Navy and Memphis all part of the assignment.
If this team wants to go bowling, it has to protect home turf while likely pulling an upset on the road. Pull two or three, and the Owls will have a season to remember.
Spots to Play Temple
- vs. Army
- vs. UConn
- vs. Rice
Spots to Fade Temple
- @ East Carolina
- @ Navy
Temple Players to Watch
- QB Jaxon Smolik
- LB Jaylon Joseph
- LB Curly Ordonez
- S Avery Powell
Pick: Pass
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Tulsa was far and away better than its 4-8 record last season.
Head coach Tre Lamb immediately improved a horrendous defense that struggled to get off the field on third down and in pass coverage. In fact, the Golden Hurricane allowed over 100 yards and two touchdowns per game fewer.
Once settling on Baylor Hayes at quarterback, the offense became more consistent. This group is ready to take the next step in 2026.
The spread system will have new dynamics to it this season, but the weaponry can make this a dangerous and potent team.
Tulsa Offense
Hayes will benefit greatly from having the offseason regimen and going through fall camp as QB1.
As a freshman who gained comfort in the system weekly last year, Hayes will seek to take the next step and become a cornerstone to build this offense around.
Dexter Williams II is also in from Kennesaw State, so Tulsa might use the running quarterback in various packages.
The running back room is ready to explode despite not having a proven bell cow. Damari Alston also comes in from Auburn, along with Trequan Jones from Old Dominion and DJ McKinney from New Mexico.
All three produced at their previous stops, and there ' plenty of talent and potency to make this rushing attack very explosive.
Oran Singleton Jr. (West Virginia) highlights the transfer portal haul in the receiver room, which also included Micah Tease (Texas A&M) and Jimmy Calloway (Tulane). Grayson Tempest and Josh Smith were here last year and will also contribute, giving Tulsa plenty of options at receiver.
Grant McAtee has a big frame at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds and can be flexed off the line of scrimmage or play in tight next to the offensive tackle. He'll be used as a blocking tight end and as a receiver.
The offensive line has exquisite size, with Brody Duffel and Cam East anchoring the tackle positions. Malachi Preciado and Hunter Erb are veterans on the interior.
If a right guard emerges, this offensive line has the potential to be as good as the service academies in the conference.
Tulsa Defense
The defensive line is going to be nasty. We didn’t see the Havoc numbers take off last year, but we should see an elevated performance this season with Tai Newhouse and Arias Nash back on the interior.
Kyran Duhon made Bruce Feldman's Freaks List and is one of the strongest players on the team. Jayden Madkins and Hudson Ball are also great rotational players, so this unit might end up being the strength of the defense.
The linebacker group will have Chris Thompson Jr., Devin Hightower and William Alexander in the mix for playing time alongside Dax Collins. The unit is not overly deep, but Devin Robinson is a versatile nickel player, a key in the 4-2-5 scheme.
Three starters are back in the secondary, including Elijah Green and Zach Williams, two staples who were responsible for the improvement shown in the coverage metrics last year. JD Drew and Rylan Leathers will compete for time.
Owen Carey was in for the spring and will kick for Tulsa as a true freshman after being the sixth-highest-rated kicker coming out of high school. Punter Max Tulen transfers in from Bethune-Cookman, where he averaged 42.3 yards per kick.
Both the return units and coverage units were average last year, so there's room for growth on special teams. I would grade this unit as a middling American unit.
Tulsa Schedule Analysis
The schedule will certainly give Tulsa a chance to make some noise nationally.
Two nonconference wins over Sam Houston and East Texas A&M are very likely, but the Golden Hurricane also host Oklahoma State before that.
Tulsa catches Arkansas in a major sandwich spot before conference play starts.
North Texas comes in on a Thursday night, and Tulsa will then face three consecutive option offenses in Navy, Rice and Army. A road trip to Tulane follows the bye week, while back-to-back home games against FAU and Charlotte are next.
The season concludes with a trip to UTSA, with potential conference implications at stake.
Tulsa has a favorable conference schedule draw and can win a lot of games on the conference slate. I bet Tulsa over 5.5 regular-season wins and took a future on them at 40-1 to win the American this year.
Spots to Play Tulsa
- vs. Oklahoma State
- vs. East Texas A&M
- vs. North Texas
- vs. Charlotte
Spots to Fade Tulsa
- @ UTSA
Tulsa Players to Watch
- QB Baylor Hayes
- RB Trequan Jones
- WR Oran Singleton Jr.
- LB Devin Hightower
- DL Thomas Davis
- RB DJ McKinney
- DL Kyran Duhon
Pick: Tulsa Over 5.5 Wins (-125) · Tulsa to Win American (+3500)
Scott Abell has won everywhere he has coached, so it was no surprise that Rice was a more competitive group last season.
After finishing 5-7, the Owls received the bowl game call after teams started opting out. While they dropped the game to finish 5-8, they still benefited from extra bowl practices and the team cohesiveness that comes from making the trip.
Another year of Abell's gun option scheme and a portal churn better suited to the system should allow Rice to improve on its paltry offensive output after it was held to 14 points or fewer seven times.
The defense needs help, specifically with preventing explosive plays, where the Owls ranked 129th nationally last season. Without a more feisty stop unit, Rice will likely be buried at the bottom of the American in 2026.
Rice Offense
The Owls live in 31 personnel with three running backs and a tight end. They'll regularly use pre-snap motion to identify defensive alignment and obtain favorable numbers for where a running play is designed to go.
Quinton Jackson is a versatile back who ran for nearly 900 yards last year, and Tyvonn Byars should be a nice complement. The running back room is deep and capable of producing in this system.
UCF transfer Jacurri Brown earned the starting quarterback job in the spring. Now, the Owls have clear direction on offense, something that was clearly lacking when Rice used four different quarterbacks last season.
So long as Brown can avoid injury, this offense will produce.
The offensive line is critical in any scheme, but it's even more paramount when a team runs the ball 74% of the time. Rice failed to establish the line of scrimmage last season, and the pass protection was woeful.
While 20 sacks allowed doesn’t seem high, Rice signal-callers were sacked on 9% of dropbacks. The Owls also surrendered 110 tackles for loss, a stunning number for a rush-heavy offense with extreme run/pass splits.
The new platoon features two starters from last season and a pair of spot starters who have been elevated to full-time roles.
Rice Defense
Rice's defense was such a mess last year, and the number of explosive plays allowed was especially concerning. The Owls gave up 35 plays of 30 yards or more and 24 plays of 40 yards or more.
The pass rush racked up six sacks against Charlotte and five against UAB but just 14 the rest of the season.
Joseph Mutombo and Dillan Botts are back, and Tariq May comes in from Eastern Washington, but the three-man alignment really needs to find a reliable pass rusher. That did not happen during the spring.
The linebacker group doesn’t have a lot of depth. The unit will rely on Jo Chavez, Cooper King and Beau Barton to mold into full-time starters. The unit is undersized and will have to stay healthy.
The secondary allowed 21 touchdown passes while intercepting just three passes last season. The lack of a potent pass rush caused the coverage unit to suffer. That resulted in defensive backs being out of position and wide-open receivers for the opposition.
Marginal improvement would go a long way.
Special teams were average with a serviceable return game last season, but nothing that jumped off the page. Kicker Enock Gota is back, and Charlie Durkin transfers in from Kent State to handle the punting duties.
An explosive return game would do wonders for Rice.
Rice Schedule Analysis
The Owls draw my third-toughest American Conference schedule in 2026.
While they avoid Navy, Memphis and South Florida, they also miss UAB and Charlotte, which really inhibits the opportunity to notch momentum-building victories.
The nonconference schedule is difficult, featuring road trips to Notre Dame and Fresno State, along with a visit from MAC champion Western Michigan. With a likely win over FCS Houston Christian, a 1-3 start is the most likely result.
The first four conference games are gut-wrenching and will test the back seven on defense thoroughly. Road trips to East Carolina and FAU are countered with home games against UTSA and Tulsa.
After the bye week, a road trip to North Texas appears the most likely chance for a win the rest of the way.
Tulane comes into Houston for Rice’s homecoming game before a short week calls for a trip to Philadelphia to take on Temple. Rice will face Army in the finale at home.
If you squint really hard, there might be three wins on the schedule.
However, achieving a 5-7 record again would require at least three upsets as an underdog of at least a touchdown. Abell will have to have really fixed the defense for that to be the case.
Spots to Play Rice
- vs. Western Michigan
- vs. Tulane
Spots to Fade Rice
- @ Fresno State
- @ East Carolina
- @ Florida Atlantic
- @ Temple
Rice Players to Watch
- QB Jacurri Brown
- RB Quinton Jackson
- RB Tyvonn Byars
- DL Joseph Mutombo
Pick: Rice Under 3.5 Wins (Lean · -115)
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UAB has been run through the wringer over the last decade, starting with an administrative decision to dissolve the program and subsequently bring it back in 2017.
Former head coach Bill Clark weathered the storm before Bryant Vincent took over during a changing of the guard.
The coaching search landed on Trent Dilfer, who struggled through three losing seasons while watching this proud program decay right under his nose. Recruiting, team culture and coach apathy were all massive problems.
After a midseason firing and the hiring of Alex Mortensen on an interim basis (interim tag later removed), the program received the care and attention it needed from a man who truly wanted to be there.
The on-field performance elevated. The culture and locker room morale improved.
UAB won twice as a heavy underdog and has since turned over the roster in an effort to fix the FBS’s worst pass coverage unit while building the offense around quarterback Ryder Burton.
Brighter days are ahead for a program that stunningly hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2022.
UAB Offense
The offense never took off under Dilfer, who was a self-touted quarterback guru, but Burton is poised to explode this season with Mortensen at the helm. Adrian Posse will push Burton, but the job isn't in question as we get into fall camp.
The running back room hit the portal hard and has a pair of capable dudes in ULM transfer Bam McReynolds and Coastal Carolina transfer Ja’Vin Simpkins.
Roderick Robinson II has played in the SEC as well, giving this stable plenty of options. We should see much more explosiveness out of the ground attack this season.
The receiver room has talent, with Kaleb Brown serving as the leader in the room. Brown was the seventh highest-rated receiver out of high school, and he's running out of time to make something happen. If he lives up to the billing, he could rack up 1,000 yards in 2026.
CJ Smith and Ty Mims are also reliable G6 outlets. In the right system, this offensive passing attack could be electric.
The offensive line was several notches down during the Dilfer regime. UAB consistently struggled to run the football, a calling card the Blazers could hang their hat on under Clark.
Sacks have increased, and the consistent duress faced resulted in more turnovers.
Mortensen made it a priority this offseason to beef up the talent and size of this offensive line, which will anchor around center Adam Lepkowski and right guard Calib Perez. Transfers from Georgia State, Marshall and the JUCO ranks look to round out the starting rotation.
UAB Defense
The defense was horrific last season and returns just two of its top 21 tacklers from last year.
The defensive line adds 10 transfers, leaving coordinator Todd Grantham to figure out the right combination of size and speed to create pressure while effectively stopping the run.
Chris Spencer, Nigel Tate and Marlin Dean all transfer in, giving this defensive trench experience. Raymond Macias and Rod Orr add size in the middle to plug running lanes.
There are several players competing for snaps, but the talent level was elevated.
Dean will fly off the edge and can also drop back into a backer role, and there are other talented players at the second level. Ike Esonwune, Muaaz Byard and Blanche Gold should factor into the rotation, and all are equipped with size and quickness.
This isn't the best unit in the conference, but it gives UAB a chance to secure stops and get off the field. The talent is there.
The secondary was the worst in the country last season, surrendering 27 touchdown passes while only plucking four interceptions. Without an effective pass rush, this unit was left high and dry and paid the price.
Delvon Gulley, Jotavion Pierce and Que Billingsley should factor into the rotation. Diezel Wilkinson and Jaylen Thompson transfer in and should increase the effectiveness of the play at safety.
This isn't an elite coverage unit, but for the first time in a while, this is likely not the worst coverage unit in the conference.
Kicker Jonah Delange had the yips last year at times and struggled with some short field goals, but he's back and could return to form. Punter Badger Hargett transfers in after three years at LSU, where he didn't play.
UAB Schedule Analysis
After a trip to Illinois in the opener, UAB has chances to compete in the nonconference portion of its schedule.
Hosting ULM and Samford are winnable games, as is a short road trip to Louisiana.
The most winnable conference game appears to be a home bout with Charlotte on Nov. 7. A worse UAB squad hung in there with a much better Navy team for three quarters last season and now hosts the Midshipmen this year.
Hosting UTSA and East Carolina gives the Blazers a chance to pull an upset as touchdown or greater 'dogs, something they did twice last year.
The road games at Memphis, USF, Temple and North Texas are tough, but I wouldn't be stunned if this team is much more competitive with 4-5 wins. It's plausible if UAB can pull an upset like it did last season.
The Blazers are, however, still a year away from bowl game eligibility.
Spots to Play UAB
- vs. ULM
- vs. Samford
- vs. East Carolina
- vs. Charlotte
- vs. UTSA
Spots to Fade UAB
- @ Temple
UAB Players to Watch
- WR Ty Mims
- RB Ja'Vin Simpkins
- QB Ryder Burton
- RB Bam McReynolds
- LB Ike Esonwune
- LB Marlin Dean
Pick: UAB Over 3.5 Wins (Lean · -125)
I remain stunned that Tim Albin left Ohio to come rebuild a Charlotte program that hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2019.
The roster overhaul saw a decent amount of offensive talent come in. If Cole Gonzales or Grayson Loftis can hold things together at quarterback before Conner Harrell comes back from injury, there's a chance that the 49ers are more competitive this season.
Continuity in the coaching staff remains, but Charlotte lost every one of its 11 games last season by multiple scores while scoring only 10 points total over its last three contests.
There's a long way to go for this bunch to become competitive.
Charlotte Offense
Harrell is the guy that offensive coordinator Todd Fitch wants to build this offense around, but the former North Carolina Tar Heel suffered an ACL injury and won't be ready to go until about halfway through the season.
Gonzales was brought in from Pitt to compete with Loftis, so we could see a quarterback by committee for some time this season.
Chance Williams is a nice running back, and Jariel Cobb and Khamani Alexander have some pop, but a true bell-cow back doesn't exist in this room. We could see four or five backs tote the rock consistently this season.
The wide receiver room did receive a portal overhaul with Jaden Barnes, Cam Pedro and Tank Boston coming in to join tight end Gus McGee. There's some talent and enough pieces to make the collective group dangerous.
However, the offensive line was a major eyesore last season. Charlotte ran for just 72.7 yards per game against FBS competition, while the offensive line surrendered 28 sacks.
Luke Sandy was a nice transfer portal pull from Wyoming, but projected starters from Maine, Long Island, Penn State and the JUCO ranks will have to gel together quickly if Charlotte wants its offensive productivity to improve.
Charlotte Defense
Charlotte's defense ended up posting decent numbers in terms of preventing explosive plays, ranking 67th in my explosiveness allowed metric.
There was absolutely no pass rush, though, as Charlotte posted just 10 sacks all season against FBS competition. The lack of a pass rush also led to some struggles in the secondary.
The offense averaged only 11 first downs per game on the road, so the defense was hung out to dry far too often. Improvement should come in 2026, but how much?
The defensive line gets a boost with a fully healthy DJ Burgess, and the hope is that Jaylon Johnson and Jamarrion Solomon can live up to their full potential.
D’Nas White started his career at Florida State and comes in at 335 pounds, so if he can round out the interior of the defensive line and log some meaningful snaps, there's a chance for this group to be tougher up front.
Kadin Schmitz should anchor the linebacker group, while Gavin Willis looks to build off a fairly productive first season at Charlotte after transferring in from Bucknell last season.
This isn't a very deep room, but they will play hard. Avoiding injury will be critical.
The secondary isn't full of stars, but it does have replacements after losing six players from last season’s porous unit.
Shamar McIntosh comes over from Maryland, and he will likely start at the nickel position. CJ Clinkscales Jr., Tradarius Smith and Collin Gill should also see significant snaps this season.
Charlotte is breaking in a new kicker after the team made just nine field goals last year. Bronson Long punted 71 times last season and is back this year. Derrick Eley returns as an explosive return specialist who had 501 return yards last season.
This special teams unit had good coverage on punts and kickoffs and could round into a decent group this year.
Charlotte Schedule Analysis
Charlotte draws my fifth-toughest American Conference schedule in 2026, and the nonconference portion doesn't do this bunch any favors.
Outside of the opener against The Citadel, I project the 49ers as double-digit underdogs in every game, with their best chance to register a win after the opener coming in Week 4 against Louisiana at home.
Other conceivable spots would be potentially hosting Tulane after a bye week, where the Green Wave will be in a major exhale spot coming off games against Army, Memphis and UTSA.
I'd be stunned if this team won three games this season, as it's just so far behind the rest of the conference. Plus, Harrell won't be ready to start under center until halfway through the season.
This is another rebuilding year for the 49ers.
Spots to Play Charlotte
- vs. The Citadel
- vs. Tulane
Spots to Fade Charlotte
- @ Temple
- @ Tulsa
Charlotte Players to Watch
- QB Cole Gonzales
- RB Khamani Alexander
- TE Gus McGee
- LB Kadin Schmitz
- DL Curtis Simpson
- QB Conner Harrell
Pick: Pass
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