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2026 Mountain West Preview, Picks, Odds: Our Futures, Win Totals for UNLV, New Mexico, More

2026 Mountain West Preview, Picks, Odds: Our Futures, Win Totals for UNLV, New Mexico, More article feature image
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Calvin Chardelli/Action Network. Pictured: UNLV RB Jai’Den Thomas (left), New Mexico RB Scottre Humphrey (center) and North Dakota State RB DJ Scott (right).

The new Mountain West has arrived.

With five teams — Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State — bolting for the Pac-12, the Mountain West has some new members coming through in 2026.

The conference added three teams from different leagues: North Dakota State from the Missouri Valley Football Conference of FCS, Northern Illinois from the MAC and UTEP from Conference USA.

With Boise State out of the way, UNLV (+260) enters as the conference favorite, followed closely by New Mexico (+265) and North Dakota State (+300).

Where does the value lie in the Mountain West this season? Let's dive into our 2026 Mountain West Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.


Mountain West Conference

2026 Mountain West Odds

TeamOdds
UNLV+260
New Mexico+265
North Dakota State+300
Hawaii+480
Air Force+550
San Jose State+1800
Wyoming+2000
Nevada+3000
Northern Illinois+6000
UTEP+8000

All odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday, Aug. 4.


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Pick to Win Mountain West: Air Force

The Falcons are poised to turn the corner. Despite on-field struggles over the last two seasons, I believe in this staff and the talent on this roster to make a deep run.

Air Force draws my easiest Mountain West schedule this season, drawing North Dakota State and UNLV at home while avoiding Hawaii altogether.

Every road game is winnable, and the Falcons could find themselves favored in eight games with underdog roles no larger than 6 points.

Getting quarterback Liam Szarka back from injury is critical, as the Flyboys offense was a real force with him in the starting lineup.

Watch for the defense to take a significant step forward this season after all of the inexperienced players in the back seven gained valuable experience last year. That should pay dividends this season.

Air Force is going to be very competitive week in and week out. While the close games didn't go its way the last two seasons, that usually evens out over time. Fight, fly, win!

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Mountain West Favorite to Make Noise: UNLV

I like what the Rebels bring back on offense, and the addition of quarterback Jackson Arnold will allow this rushing offense to pick up where it left off last season.

Head coach Dan Mullen fixed some of the situational execution issues that plagued UNLV over the previous two seasons, as the Rebels cashed in for touchdowns on 70% of their red-zone trips last year.

The defense showed improvement as the season progressed and now enters its second year in the system.

The Rebs catch Hawaii at the right time and face New Mexico coming off back-to-back road trips. The Lobos overperformed expectations last season, winning four conference games by a touchdown or less.

Boise State was the thorn in UNLV's side for years, but the Broncos bolted for the new Pac-12.

When the regular season is all said and done, I think UNLV plays Air Force in the Mountain West Championship.


Click any logo to navigate directly to that team's section.


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UNLV Rebels

MW: +260 · Win Total: 7.5

No team in the Mountain West is happier to see Boise State run off to the Pac-12 than UNLV.

On the wrong end of the last three Mountain West Championship games, the Rebels have been so close to breaking through on a national level only to be stifled by boys in blue.

But now the runway is clear for UNLV to contend for the Group of 6's College Football Playoff bid.

Head coach Dan Mullen did a great job tinkering with the offense while maintaining a level of explosiveness last season. Situational execution also progressed, as UNLV significantly elevated its offensive performance in the red zone.

The defense, however, remains a work in progress. The Rebels struggled to pick up stops while ranking in the bottom five of FBS in surrendering explosive plays.

UNLV was the fourth-most penalized team in the country last season, and the costly mistakes were downright embarrassing at times.

This team must establish a locker room culture of accountability with a refusal to engage in activities that trigger fouls. This starts in the offseason, giving us something to watch.

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UNLV Offense

The offense sees a changing of the guard at quarterback, as Anthony Colandrea departs after just one season — a common theme at UNLV.

Jackson Arnold comes in after two separate stints in the SEC with Oklahoma and Auburn. While it didn’t work out at those places, I believe Arnold’s skill set will translate to on-field success. He should find a way to stress defenses in the MW with his running prowess.

Alex Orji is the backup and can run the offense if necessary or in mop-up duty.

Jai'Den Thomas was electric last year, running for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns on 7.0 yards per carry. Thomas also proved to be a reliable safety valve out of the backfield on passing plays, as he caught 36 passes for another 237 yards.

Jaylon Glover adds another explosive element and should fit in just fine while backing up Thomas.

The receiver room saw some departures after last season, but Mullen hit the portal hard in an attempt to reload the cupboard.

Taeshaun Lyons is the top returning receiver, and Troy Stellato will play alongside him after transferring in from Kentucky. Amorion Walker and Taz Reddicks also come in and could crack the starting lineup.

The offensive line returns second-team All-Mountain West selection Austin Boyd at center, along with left tackle Will Thomas. Jackson Brown transfers in from Pitt to shore up the other tackle spot, while Colton Thomasson comes in from Baylor to secure the left guard position.

This is a solid MW offensive line that should once again pave the way for 200 rushing yards and 35 points per game.

2026 Pac-12 Preview, Picks, Odds: Our Futures, Win Totals for Boise State, San Diego State, More Image
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UNLV Defense

The defensive line registered 30 sacks and 66 tackles for loss last season, but a lot of the Havoc producers need to be replaced.

Landen Thomas and Andre Porter could shine in the system, and Lucas Conti is a guy who entered the portal but chose to come back for another season.

A pair of transfers from Tennessee and Miami, along with players buried deep on the roster, are going to be called upon in the second platoon to rotate and make plays. Doing so will go a long way in helping UNLV become a feared front.

The linebacker room remains in decent shape with Cam Santee coming in from Holy Cross after posting 110 tackles and 14 tackles for loss last season. Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu is the other linebacker, while Kyron Chambers transfers in to shore up the nickel position after playing 12 games last year at SMU.

This is an improved unit after last year’s subpar linebacker group struggled to find an identity.

The secondary added Avery Helm from TCU and Denver Harris from UTSA to shore up the cornerback spots, while Jake Pope and Tre Fulton return at the safety positions.

There's a significant amount of talent in this secondary, and if it can be unlocked, UNLV should be much tougher against the pass than it was last year. I like the starting unit, but depth and unproven talent in the second platoon are issues.

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UNLV Schedule Analysis

While the schedule may not seem that difficult on paper, there are several landmines and tough travel spots, including three straight road games early on that could create some difficulty.

While the Rebels don't play a home game in September, Memphis comes to Vegas in Week 0 for a major battle for G6 positioning nationally. The loser will likely be out of contention for the CFP.

UNLV then heads to the island for a battle with Hawaii before immediately hitting the road to North Texas with no added rest. That's a tough ask, even with the Mean Green being way down from last year.

After a bye week, the Rebs hit the road again, this time to Akron to take on the Zips in a major letdown spot.

Back-to-back home games against Cal and North Dakota State give UNLV a chance to make some noise nationally against a Power 4 opponent and FBS newcomer.

A trip to Air Force is another ATS fade spot after two monster home games without additional prep time for the triple option.

UNLV will be favored in four of its last five games, as a pair of home games against Northern Illinois and Wyoming provide winnable opportunities before a massive showdown at New Mexico.

A trip to San Jose is the final road landmine to avoid before rival Nevada comes in for the “Battle for the Fremont Cannon.”

There's a real chance UNLV is favored in every game this season, but seven of those spots will be by single digits.

While this team has high expectations, there's some volatility, particularly if the quarterback struggles and the defense doesn’t improve.

Nothing between 6-11 wins would surprise me. For that reason, I'm passing on UNLV's win total.

Spots to Play UNLV

  • @ Hawaii
  • vs. Cal
  • vs. North Dakota State
  • vs. Northern Illinois
  • vs. Nevada

Spots to Fade UNLV

  • @ Akron
  • @ Air Force
  • @ San Jose State
  • vs. Wyoming

UNLV Players to Watch

  • QB Jackson Arnold
  • RB Jai'Den Thomas
  • WR Taz Reddicks
  • S Jake Pope
  • S Tre Fulton
  • LB Cam Santee

Pick: Pass



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New Mexico Lobos

MW: +265 · Win Total: 7.5

The job Jason Eck did with New Mexico last season was nothing short of amazing.

The talent exodus this team experienced when former head coach Bronco Mendenhall departed for Utah State left this team in a tough spot.

What appeared to be a brutal schedule led most to believe New Mexico was headed right to the bottom of the Mountain West standings.

But Eck and the Lobos had other ideas.

While we didn’t hear a ton about it in the media soundbites, this team quietly improved over the summer. Immediate attitude, toughness and physicality were evident in a close loss at Michigan, and the Lobos put the MW on notice on a Friday night while embarrassing UCLA on its home turf.

Back-to-back road losses were disappointing, but New Mexico won its last six games to post a 9-3 regular-season record.

The team was left out of the Mountain West Championship due to tiebreakers, but there's no other way to say it: New Mexico was hosed.

This year, the team is buying into the mantra of “Leave No Doubt,” and the Lobos are a legitimate co-favorite to win the league in Year 2 under Eck.

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New Mexico Offense

Jack Layne returns at quarterback after throwing for 2,486 yards with 13 touchdowns while also adding 347 yards on the ground before sacks last year.

Layne is still battling an elbow injury that caused him to miss spring ball, and surprisingly to some, there's a multi-player battle at quarterback.

Luke Moga comes in from Oregon and will be vying for the starting job, while James Laubstein isn't far behind. I don’t love the unsettled feeling at this important position.

Scottre Humphrey didn’t see much of the field last year in a crowded running back room, but I’m going to tell you right now, he can absolutely run the football. Humphrey was electric at Montana State, and he runs with power while taking on contact well.

Cameron Mathews also comes over from Memphis and Kiefer Sibley from North Texas to add depth to a solid running back room.

The top three pass-catchers from last season are gone, but New Mexico did pluck Troy Omeire from UNLV, where he hauled in 31 passes for 514 yards and five touchdowns last year.

Cade Keith is a great receiving tight end, and receivers Zhaiel Smith and Shawn Miller seek to elevate their performance to secure starting spots.

The offensive line was better last year, but there's still room for this group to grow. New Mexico averaged just 152 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per attempt, down from prior seasons, while surrendering 34 sacks.

Layne took a pounding last year, and whoever wins the quarterback job will need better play from the offensive line.

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New Mexico Defense

New Mexico's defense was leaps and bounds better than prior versions of the Lobos' stop unit. The sack and Havoc numbers more than tripled from 2024, as New Mexico registered 36 sacks and 77 tackles for loss, its highest total in years.

The defense was tough against the run, and with a half-dozen starters back this season, the defense should stay powerful in 2026.

Darren Agu elevated to a starting role after registering a pair of sacks and 30 tackles last year as a reserve. Brian Booker, the man in the middle, should continue to take on double-teams and plug holes in the run game, freeing up the linebackers.

Albert Tuakalau could be a force off the edge coming out of spring. The defensive line is weaker with the loss of its top two sack creators, but if a star emerges, it could end up in a similar position in terms of production.

The linebackers are excellent, headlined by first-team All-Mountain West selection Jaxton Eck. The senior middle linebacker recorded 129 tackles last season and was all over the field. He should be even better this year.

Mercury Swaim recorded 52 tackles, and Drew Speech has been elevated to start at nickel. This is one of the best linebacker groups in the conference.

The secondary returns three starters in Frankie Edwards III, Tavian Combs and Austin Brawley while adding in Ormanie Arnold, who started occasionally at Cincinnati prior to transferring.

New Mexico was a top-30 group nationally in my explosiveness allowed metric, which measures 20-, 30- and 40-yard plays surrendered. The Lobos figure to remain strong in preventing explosives.

The special teams unit was excellent last year, and while New Mexico is breaking in a new kicker in 2026, it plucked one of the best in the FCS. Nicholas Romero comes in from Wagner after hitting 13-of-14 field goals last season. However, he had a long of just 44 yards and recorded only two touchbacks on kickoffs.

Michael Kern comes in to punt after a year at Cal last year.

The Lobos had a potent return specialist last year in Damon Bankston, who returned multiple kickoff returns for touchdowns, but new return specialists need to emerge.

This is still an above-average special teams unit, but not elite as it was last year.

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New Mexico Schedule Analysis

Three of the four nonconference games will find New Mexico as a heavy favorite against Central Michigan, Mercyhurst and New Mexico State.

The “Battle For The Land of Enchantment” comes on the road this year and follows a trip to Norman to take on the Sooners, while NMSU comes off a bye week.

This provided a potential ATS fade spot for New Mexico, which will be laying multiple scores.

UTEP comes in for another rivalry game, but the Lobos should notch a win there.

A well-timed bye week occurs before a trip to Hawaii, potentially giving New Mexico extra travel time to acclimate to the big adjustment of the trip.

Following that Hawaii game, a tough assignment awaits. North Dakota State comes to town, followed by back-to-back road trips to San Jose State and Nevada.

The Nevada road trip comes right before a huge showdown at home against UNLV in what amounts to a tough close to the season.

A trip to Laramie, Wyoming, is no picnic, and the season concludes with another massive conference game against Air Force at home in a bout that will surely have postseason implications.

This is a strong team, and expectations for New Mexico are sky high.

I worry about the quarterback situation being unsettled, the defense potentially taking a step back and potentially weaker special teams.

I have UNM favored in 11 games this season, but the last seven will feature single-digit spreads. Winning the close games on the road will determine the Lobos' conference championship fate.

Spots to Play New Mexico

  • vs. Mercyhurst
  • @ Hawaii
  • @ Oklahoma (Need +28 to think about it)

Spots to Fade New Mexico

  • @ New Mexico State
  • @ Nevada
  • @ Wyoming

New Mexico Players to Watch

  • LB Jaxton Eck
  • QB Jack Layne
  • RB Scottre Humphrey
  • S Drew Speech
  • S Austin Brawley

Pick: Pass




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North Dakota State Bison

MW: +300 · Win Total: 8.5

North Dakota State is well positioned for the transition to the FBS level. The Bison thoroughly dominated the FCS for years, winning nine national titles while regularly playing deep into the late stages of the FCS Playoffs.

The move comes as a way to reinvigorate and reignite a fan base that appeared bored or apathetic at times. Now, the Bison will have a chance to compete in the top subdivision of the sport.

Tim Polasek is a no-nonsense coach who has carried on a longstanding culture of toughness, physicality and attitude. We'll see that again this year with NDSU.

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North Dakota State Offense

The quarterback lineage at North Dakota State has been impressive. In fact, the Bison have sent five quarterbacks to the NFL during this long stretch of success.

I'm not convinced that Nathan Hayes is that guy, but he has waited patiently for his time to shine, and he has physical tools we've been accustomed to seeing from an NDSU signal-caller.

DJ Scott is back at running back after spell duty last season and will be tasked with being the primary ball-carrier this season. Myles Mitchell and Barry Kpeenu should also find the field in some capacity this season.

The receiver room lacks the vertical field-stretching threat we saw from Bryce Lance and RaJa Nelson last season.

Tight end Reis Kessel is the leading returning pass-catcher, while Jackson Williams and Mekhi Collins will be added to the starting rotation.

Luke Kokat and Kaden Zenzen are versatile tight ends who can put their fingers in the ground and line up outside the tackle while also flipping to a fullback-type position, something we see regularly at NDSU.

The offensive line is down a notch with a pair of starters being plucked by Power 4 teams, but center Griffin Empey returns after garnering FCS All-American honors last season.

Josh Magin and Nate Tastad have played in the system, but the tackles are young and inexperienced at this level.

This is a physical group with decent size but likely not the dominant offensive line from prior seasons. Depth at the FBS level is a question for me.

mountain west preview-picks-odds-futures-win totals-north dakota state-2026
Jerome Miron-Imagn Images. Pictured: The North Dakota State Bison.
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North Dakota State Defense

The Bison defense shined at the FCS level last season, allowing just one opponent to score over 20 points during the regular season.

I personally feel this group benefited from a Charmin soft nonconference schedule while also catching South Dakota State with terrible quarterback problems.

With a step up in competition, I fully expect this defense to be less dominant than Bison fans are used to seeing.

The defensive line loses two starters from last year, but Kelton McCaslin and Keenan Wilson are back, and Matthew Stenbroten is ready to blossom into a starting rush-end.

This unit has depth and could end up being an above-average Mountain West defensive line in 2026.

The linebacker group lost several talented players to the portal or graduation and will be down a few notches this year. Donovan Woolen is a great player and will anchor the room, with Keith Williams coming in from Cornell alongside freshman Gavin Sell.

Elite linebacker play has been a common occurrence with NDSU, but we won't see that this season.

The secondary won't be as strong this season while stepping up in competition, but Darius Givance and Jaylin Crumby are solid safeties.

If the two transfer cornerbacks, DJ Voltz and Chance Tucker, end up being home runs, this group could post solid pass defense numbers once again.

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North Dakota State Schedule Analysis

Despite being a multi-score favorite in the opener, I think North Dakota State is in for a decent dogfight when Jacksonville State comes to town before what should be an easy win against FCS Fordham.

A trip to Air Force won't be easy when factoring in playing at elevation and preparing for the unique scheme, challenges NDSU has never had to overcome before.

A trip to Sacramento State will validate that the Bison are significantly more prepared to move to FBS, and hosting Wyoming after the bye is also a play-on spot on NDSU.

I'll seek to fade the Bison in upcoming road trips to UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii, but home games against Nevada, UTEP and Northern Illinois are also play-on spots for the Bison.

Preseason expectations are sky-high. North Dakota State is one of the co-favorites to win the league, a zealous ask in my opinion.

I think NDSU can win 7-8 games this season, but the rigors of a 12-game schedule will cause significantly more snaps out of the first string, and unique travel will wear on the Bison.

I lean under the posted win total, but NDSU will qualify for a bowl game. If it pulls two upsets on the road in league play, it could contend for the conference championship.

Spots to Play North Dakota State

  • vs. Wyoming
  • vs. Nevada
  • vs. UTEP
  • vs. Northern Illinois
  • @ San Jose State

Spots to Fade North Dakota State

  • @ Air Force
  • @ UNLV
  • @ New Mexico
  • @ Hawaii

North Dakota State Players to Watch

  • QB Nathan Hayes
  • RB DJ Scott
  • S Darius Givance
  • DT Keenan Wilson
  • LB Donovan Woolen
  • CB Chance Tucker

Pick: Pass



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Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

MW: +480 · Win Total: 7.5

There were a few rumblings about the trajectory of the Hawaii program after three straight disappointing seasons on the Island under head coach Timmy Chang.

The run-and-shoot offense wasn’t runnin’ or shootin’, and a 2-15 road record was perhaps understandable. But the home dominance was gone, as Hawaii went just 11-10 straight up over Chang’s first three years.

Last year, defending home turf was a priority and a goal successfully achieved by the Rainbow Warriors.

The development of the passing game while effectively mixing in the run was also helpful, despite quarterback Micah Alejado battling injury all season.

The key this year will be replacing a majority of the defensive talent that shined brightly last year, as Hawaii had its best defensive team in 10 years.

A repeat bowl appearance should be realized. But while some think Hawaii can contend for the conference title in 2026, I do not.

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Hawaii Offense

Alejado is an excellent fit in the run-and-shoot offense, and his mobility allows him to extend plays outside the pocket while picking up first downs with his legs when necessary.

When he's healthy, there are few better in the MW, but the depth behind him is concerning.

Cam Barfield is a versatile weapon at the running back position, and he showed a bit of explosiveness toting the rock while also catching 27 passes out of the backfield.

The receiving production lost is concerning, as Hawaii loses four of its top five receivers from last year. The receivers are so critical in the run-and-shoot offense, which is hard to learn and understand until you've actually gone through a full install and game reps.

Pofele Ashlock returns as the leading receiver. Ashlock is explosive and has a good grasp of the system. He was, however, battling injury in fall camp, and his availability to start the season remains in question.

Tama Uiliata is back after catching 28 passes last year, and Audric Harris transfers in from Washington and could be a major contributor.

Two on the offensive line are back in starting center Ethan Spencer and left tackle Dean Briski. Lipe Moala transfers in from Oregon to join two other players who ran with the second-team offensive line to round out the starting unit.

There's decent depth, but Hawaii took a couple of games to get the offense figured out before exploding down the stretch. I'm not confident the rushing numbers or sacks allowed get any better this season.

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Hawaii Defense

The defensive numbers last year were fantastic, as Hawaii allowed just 24 points and 361 yards per game, by far its best totals in 10 years.

The Bows are breaking in seven new defensive linemen, but Ka’eo Akana and Luther McCoy did see a decent amount of action, and Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina has quickness off the edge.

The linebacker group could be in good shape so long as Jamih Otis recovers fully from an ACL injury. Wynden Ho’ohuli is a player the Bows are also very excited about.

The secondary sees all four starters from last year depart, but Caleb Brown returns to Hawaii after a year at Virginia Tech, and safeties Kona Moore and Zion Allen have played a ton of football here.

Elijah Palmer could end up maturing into one of the more versatile nickel players in the Mountain West after recording 52 tackles and 12 pass breakups last season.

Special teams made a huge splash last year, as Barfield morphed into an explosive kickoff return specialist. However, the Warriors likely won't use him, as he's the team’s starting running back.

Hawaii will be breaking in a new punter, but the big special teams headliner is the departure of the “Tokyo Toe,” Kansei Matsuzawa. He was such a weapon, sniping 27-of-29 field goals and hitting all 40 of his extra points.

A reliable kicker needs to emerge.

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Hawaii Schedule Analysis

Hawaii has played seven home games each of the past two seasons but has only six this season. It also doesn't face an FCS opponent after facing three over the last two seasons.

The Bows are already lined as underdogs against Stanford on the road in Week 0 and at home against UNLV in Week 1. They will be heavy favorites over New Mexico State before the bye week.

A road trip to Wyoming comes next, and it's in a good spot in the schedule as opposed to at the end of the season in the snow.

Hawaii will then double back to the island for a bout with San Jose State, which will be coming off a bye. A midseason road trip to Arizona State is a massive fade spot before Hawaii hosts New Mexico, which will also be coming off a bye.

Win or lose the New Mexico game, Hawaii will need to avoid massive letdown spots in long travel games at Northern Illinois and UTEP, which sandwich a second bye week (Hawaii has two byes because it plays in Week 0).

The Warriors should be a play-on team in their remaining two home games against North Dakota State and Sacramento State but could likely be in some trouble playing at Nevada late in the year.

Overall, this schedule features significant challenges. With one fewer home game, no FCS opponent and the possibility of only being favored in six games, I played under the win total of 7.5.

Spots to Play Hawaii

  • vs. San Jose State
  • vs. North Dakota State

Spots to Fade Hawaii

  • @ Arizona State
  • @ Nevada
  • vs. New Mexico

Hawaii Players to Watch

  • QB Micah Alejado
  • RB Cam Barfield
  • WR Pofele Ashlock
  • LB Jamih Otis
  • DB Elijah Palmer

Pick: Hawaii Under 7.5 Wins (-150)




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Air Force Falcons

MW: +550 · Win Total: 6.5

Air Force hasn't proven that it deserves the benefit of the doubt regarding its ability to turn around the program after two disappointing seasons in Colorado Springs.

In 2024, it was the offense that struggled badly, as Air Force slipped to 22 points or fewer eight times while being ineffective in terms of explosive plays.

Last year, the offense improved its points per game by 11 and registered over 1,000 more yards than the year before, but the porous defense couldn't pick up stops all season against FBS competition.

Historically under Troy Calhoun, however, the Flyboys have shown an ability to rebound. I trust the staff and the system to field a winning team in 2026.

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Air Force Offense

Air Force has maintained consistency, adhering to the flexbone triple-option system as other service academies have migrated away from it. Offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen enters Year 13 here, so expect the familiar scheme to return.

Quarterback Liam Szarka battled injury last season but has recovered and is ready to lead the platoon once again in 2026.

Fullback Owen Allen ran for 750 yards on 5.7 yards per carry and also returns. Allen is a physical runner who handles contact well and is tough to bring down.

Replacing the explosiveness provided by the slotbacks will be critical this year, as Cade Harris and Kade Frew depart. Rocco Conti headlines the group, and Jalen Rashad Turner, Mason Lowe and Keegan Sack could all emerge.

Air Force has a disadvantage when it comes to the transfer portal being a one-way street, but this team is used to handling this type of attrition. Still, productive backs regularly emerge. I expect that again this season.

The receivers are used as blockers more often here than anywhere else in the country, while occasionally stemming opposing defensive backs deceptively before breaking away for long receptions.

It won't be uncommon for the receivers to have a low reception total, but two or three pass-catchers could end up averaging over 17 yards per catch. Jonah Dawson should be one of those guys this year.

A byproduct of what the Air Force is doing outside of football, the offensive line is generally quick and moves well laterally, but they're always undersized. Yet, the scheme works, and the Falcons recruit to it well.

Three starters are back, and the interior guards, TJ Tarascio and Jon Ashford, have really good size. The sack numbers could decrease, and the rushing average should reside above 5.0 yards per carry.

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Air Force Defense

The defense was atrocious last season, but the back seven improved as the season progressed.

Air Force held five of its last six opponents to 21 points or fewer, and this group now returns eight players, going from an inexperienced group to one that should see drastic improvement.

The defensive line boasts Isaac Hubert, who racked up 11.5 tackles for loss last year, and Jaylin Reese who saw action in all 12 games. The tackles are undersized, but the scheme works so long as linebacker communication is solid.

In the linebacker room, all three return from last season. Blake Fletcher was a second-team All-MW selection and returns alongside Dallas Daley.

Alexander Perez is a versatile player at the nickel position and shined as a true freshman late in the season. The secondary is experienced with fourth-team All-MW performer Roger Jones Jr. and Korey Johnson leading the way.

The cornerbacks are pesky and often find themselves contributing as run stoppers. Improvement will be evident here.

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Air Force Schedule Analysis

Air Force has an exquisite schedule draw this season, as all four nonconference games are winnable. The opener against Duquesne should be an opportunity to open up the offense while working everyone in the two-deep on defense into the game.

Catching North Dakota State in Week 2 — the Bison's first road game as an FBS program — makes this a play-on spot for the Flyboys.

Conference play rolls on softly with a road trip to Nevada, which will be a tough game, but AF will be favored. This is one of three conference road games where this will be the case.

Air Force will host Navy this season and could gain an immediate upper hand toward achieving the Commander-in-Chief Trophy, but the Falcons must avoid a hangover spot in a trip to Northern Illinois.

A home win over UNLV could give the Flyboys the inside track to the Mountain West Championship, something I believe they're capable of this year.

Home games against UConn, San Jose State and UTEP will see Air Force favored by 8-10 points, and while a trip to Army is a place it has traditionally struggled, the game is winnable.

I think there's a real scenario where Air Force is playing at New Mexico in the last week of the season with a spot in the Mountain West title game on the line.

I expect the Falcons to achieve bowl eligibility early this year and could press for 8-9 wins. This is a play-on team this season.

Spots to Play Air Force

  • vs. Duquesne
  • vs. North Dakota State
  • vs. UConn
  • vs. UTEP

Spots to Fade Air Force

  • @ Northern Illinois (+21 or Better)
  • vs. San Jose State (If Air Force beats Army and wins the Commander-in-Chief Trophy; otherwise, not a fade spot)

Air Force Players to Watch

  • QB Liam Szarka
  • RB Owen Allen
  • LB Isaac Hubert
  • DB Roger Jones Jr.
  • WR Jonah Dawson

Pick: Air Force Over 6.5 Wins (Lean · -180) · Air Force to Win Mountain West (+600)



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San Jose State Spartans

MW: +1800 · Win Total: 4.5

San Jose State was the talk of the town in 2020 during the COVID season, when the Spartans used tough defense and an efficient offense to roll through their abbreviated schedule on their way to the Mountain West Championship.

Since that time, however, the Spartans have fallen back into the mediocrity that the program was known for over the last four decades.

Former head coach Brent Brennan bolted for the Power 4, so San Jose State hired Ken Niumatalolo, who has roots on the West Coast.

Despite running the triple option at Navy for ages, Niumatalolo brought the “Spread n’ Shred” passing system over and implemented it with great success.

A prolific passing attack has enabled the Spartans to stay competitive when parlayed with a Havoc-minded defense that could impose its will.

Last year, both the offensive and defensive productivity dipped, causing San Jose State to fall to 3-9.

An electric quarterback and wide receiver combination both depart, and there's a lot of kinks to work out if San Jose wants to be competitive in 2026. I love Niumatalolo, but I don’t love this team.

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San Jose State Offense

Luke Weaver transferred in this offseason to compete for the quarterback position vacated by Walker Eget, who left for Duke.

Weaver started several games in place of oft-injured Micah Alejado at Hawaii and gave everyone a nice Christmas Eve stocking stuffer, leading a comeback victory that included the “Weave Heave” — a late go-ahead touchdown pass in the bowl game victory over Cal.

Robert McDaniel is also in the mix along with a familiar MW name: Rolovich. Daniel Rolovich, son of former Hawaii and Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich, arrives and will compete for the backup role.

Jabari Bates is a nice running back and will garner the bulk of the carries, with Isaiah Carlson competing for time.

The receiver room was decimated during the offseason with the top-five Spartan pass-catchers leaving the program. Anthony Ivey comes in after catching one pass over the last two seasons at Penn State, and Jordan Anderson, Cooper Hoch and Carson Clark figure to round out the starting platoon.

This is not a strong receiver group, and chemistry and timing must develop quickly in what appears to be a year filled with talent reset.

The offensive line has two starters returning in Tyler Chen and Joseph Harbert. The hope is that a slew of P4 transfers end up panning out.

San Jose State allowed sacks on just 2% of dropbacks last year, and the rushing numbers improved drastically over 2024.

However, opening the season with back-to-back road trips doesn't provide a spot to figure it out. We might not see progress until Week 3 and even into the bye week with this group. The two projected starting tackles will need to grow up quickly.

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San Jose State Defense

One starter returns from a defense that allowed 32.5 points and over 400 yards per game last season.

The defensive line is undersized with no players listed over 300 pounds. The Spartans plan to remain in a three-man front alignment.

Justin Stearns and Solomone Langi are the top returning players on the D-line, and a pair of transfers from Sacramento State and Arizona State figure to factor into the two-deep.

The linebacker group will be anchored by Ethan Powell, who recorded 43 tackles last season and is the team’s leading returning tackler. Aizik Mahuka transfers in from Weber State, and Naseri Danielson played some last year.

But as is the case with the rest of the defensive platoon, depth and talent are lacking.

The secondary loses all four starters from last season, and I worry about the effectiveness of the Spartans' pass coverage unit heading into 2026.

Seven transfers came in to shore up this unit, headlined by Maliki Crawford (USC) and Isaiah Buxton (San Diego State). Tagovailoa-Amosa switched positions from wide receiver to safety, and Brian Dukes Jr. comes over from Cal Poly.

While the room does have some talent, playing together as a unit and on-field communication will be paramount to this group posting even mediocre numbers.

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San Jose State Schedule Analysis

San Jose State is the only team in the country playing 13 regular-season games this year.

The season opens with back-to-back road games at USC and Eastern Michigan before a home date with Cal Poly, which is the Spartans’ best early opportunity to notch a win.

After hosting rival Fresno State, SJSU gets a well-timed bye week before going to Hawaii. After a trip to the island, the next three games are winnable on paper, as the Spartans host Wyoming before facing UTEP and Nevada both on the road.

Conference co-favorite New Mexico comes to town before SJSU hosts Northern Illinois in its best chance at a conference home win.

The Spartans figure to be double-digit underdogs in their final three games against Air Force, UNLV and North Dakota State.

The talent churn in the portal wasn't strong, and the schedule isn't forgiving. I don’t think we see much success for San Jose State this season.

Spots to Play San Jose State

  • vs. Northern Illinois
  • vs. UNLV (+17 or Better)

Spots to Fade San Jose State

  • vs. Fresno State
  • @ Nevada
  • vs. New Mexico
  • vs. North Dakota State

San Jose State Players to Watch

  • QB Luke Weaver
  • WR Jordan Anderson
  • LB Ethan Powell
  • RB Jabari Bates

Pick: Pass




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Wyoming Cowboys

MW: +2000 · Win Total: 5.5

Wyoming and head coach Jay Sawvel are at a critical juncture entering Year 3 of his tenure in Laramie.

The longstanding success of the Craig Bohl era is a distant memory, and while the defense held up its end of the bargain last season (20.5 points and 344 yards per game allowed), the offense was dreadful, posting the worst numbers here in nearly 10 years.

Sawvel brought in offensive coordinator Christian Taylor from the Buffalo Bills, who previously served as the OC at William & Mary, in an attempt to spark creativity and score more points.

If the defense remains strong, there are enough winnable opportunities on this schedule for Wyoming to threaten getting back to a bowl game.

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Wyoming Offense

Tyler Hughes transfers in from W&M after throwing for 2,330 yards with an incredible 20:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season. Hughes added 670 rushing yards and has excellent speed, providing a true dual-threat to the position, a first here in quite some time.

The depth behind Hughes isn't strong, so avoiding injury here will be critical.

Samuel Harris is ready to take the next step as a running back and should garner at least 150 touches this season. Harris takes on contact well, rarely loses yards and can catch the ball out of the backfield, something the new offense will feature.

Markell Holman and Diore Hubbard will split carries predominantly as the spell backs and could also be featured in the passing game.

Wide receiver weapons are lacking significantly, and there are no game-breaking receivers who can stretch the field as Wyoming has had in the past.

Kyle Frendt, Jake Wilson and Tyler Siddons are major weapons at the tight end position, and despite a new offensive system being installed, I would expect plenty of 12 personnel to take advantage of the tight ends' skill sets.

The offensive line didn't play too badly last season, and both Braylon Jenkins and Rex Johnsen are proven starters anchoring the line from the tackle positions. Jason Maciejczak transfers in from Nebraska and should start at center.

Giovanni Panozzo gets elevated from the second team to a starting spot, so shoring up the left guard position is the main priority in fall camp.

mountain west preview-picks-odds-futures-win totals-wyoming-2026
Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A Wyoming pylon.
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Wyoming Defense

The defensive line is a major overhaul, as all four starters from last season depart.

Dante Drake is back from an injury that caused him to miss all of last season. Esaia Bogar and Jayden Williams will be elevated to starting roles as well. Jack Dunkley transfers in from the FCS level where he was a productive pass rusher at Duquesne.

The linebacker position sees the top two depart from last year. Last year’s second team will be elevated, along with USC transfer Anthony Beavers Jr.

The secondary was exceptional last season. Jones Thomas and Brooklyn Cheek will anchor the back end at the safety positions.

Ian Bell and David Leonard have experience in the system at cornerback, and Tyson Shamsid-Deen gained valuable experience last year.

This unit could improve throughout the season and end up being one of the best coverage units in the MW yet again, but it will be tested more frequently with the lack of a potent pass rush up front.

The special teams weren't great last year, and while kicker Erik Sandvik returns, he must prove his worth after struggling badly even from close range. Bart Edmiston was a solid punter last year and should be every bit as good this year.

Kickoff and punt return coverage units were terrible last year, and Wyoming really needs to clean this up. In fact, special teams directly cost the Pokes twice in losses last year.

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Wyoming Schedule Analysis

There are a lot of moving pieces that all need to find a way to connect this season, but the schedule is forgiving, and there are wins for the taking.

The Border War opens the season, as Wyoming travels to Colorado State before hosting FCS Northern Colorado.

A road game at Central Michigan provides a unique travel spot, but the game is winnable, as is the conference opener against Hawaii, which comes in off a bye.

Back-to-back road trips to North Dakota State and San Jose State are tricky. Wyoming really needs to split those two games at minimum.

Hosting Northern Illinois is a winnable game and the Pokes get NIU in a great spot as the Huskies could be somewhat beat up after playing Air Force the week before. Wyoming hosts rival Air Force after this game.

Following the bye, back-to-back road games at UNLV and UTEP await the Pokes, and again, Wyoming needs a 1-1 split at minimum.

Two home games against New Mexico and UConn are certainly winnable games, with the latter being a huge spot I have circled to play Wyoming.

While the Pokes will be favored in only five games this season, I have them as underdogs of 5 or fewer points five other times. There are wins there for the taking if this team shows it's ready to take the next step. I lean over the win total of 5.5.

Spots to Play Wyoming

  • @ Central Michigan
  • vs. Northern Illinois
  • @ UNLV
  • vs. UConn

Spots to Fade Wyoming

  • @ North Dakota State
  • @ UTEP

Wyoming Players to Watch

  • QB Tyler Hughes
  • RB Samuel Harris
  • S Jones Thomas
  • DE Donnie Wingate
  • DE Jack Dunkley
  • S Desman Hearns
  • LB Anthony Beavers Jr.

Pick: Wyoming Over 5.5 Wins (Lean · -115)



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Nevada Wolf Pack

MW: +3000 · Win Total: 4.5

Nevada has been one of the hardest-hit programs in the Mountain West in terms of roster decimation via the portal. It doesn't help that the Wolf Pack have been unable to bring in talent.

The results have been three straight losing seasons filled with flashes of brilliance but minimal results.

Head coach Jeff Choate enters Year 3 at a critical juncture for this once-proud program. On-field consistency, offensive potency and toughness at the line of scrimmage must be a priority.

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Nevada Offense

Carter Jones flashed at times at the quarterback position once he was finally handed the controls, but Nevada also brought in Luke Duncan from UCLA via the portal.

Both are mobile, and Jones took steps as a passing threat in the spring, so Nevada has two solid options after not having any reliable quarterbacks last season.

In the running backs room, Herschel Turner could really shine in this system, and Dominic Kelley and Ky Woods are also back.

The receiver room saw its top five producing receivers depart after last season, so Nevada will rely on transfers brought in from the FCS level.

Damien Morgan hauled in 53 passes for 607 yards and three touchdowns last year at Idaho State, while Jaceon Doss averaged 19.1 yards per catch over the last two seasons at Towson.

Donnie Cheers produced at SEMO and Marshaun Brown caught 16 passes last season here, so Nevada has weapons on the outside it can rely on.

The offensive line was something Choate was excited about coming out of the spring, and both Zach Cochnauer and Jack Foster are experienced tackles.

Jacob Norcross started at both Memphis and Kennesaw State, as did right guard Ethan Newman. The O-line did well in preventing Havoc plays last year. With this unit, Nevada should be more potent in the run game.

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Nevada Defense

The defense made strides last season, as the points allowed, yards allowed and yards per play mumbers were all down from the prior three seasons. Nevada also made its way inside the top 60 nationally in explosive plays surrendered.

Edge Dylan Labarbera will lead the defense this season and could contend for the top defensive player in the Mountain West this season. Labarbera recorded 87 tackles with 18 tackles for loss a season ago and will anchor the defensive line.

Myles Williams is another guy who could end up creating more pressure. If the defensive tackles, who have excellent size, end up being a force, this defense will see elevated Havoc numbers while being more effective against the run.

The linebacker room has been such a weakness over the last couple of seasons, but EJ Smith returns after playing eight games before suffering a season-ending injury in 2025. Jeremy Naborne-Owens comes over from Colorado State and should fit right in here.

Joshua Scott was a versatile player at the nickel spot at Eastern Michigan last year and can play the run support game or drop back in pass coverage.

The secondary will task Aiden Walker and Bryson Snelling with becoming full-time starters after starting occasionally last season. Both are solid coverage options who have good size.

Larry Turner-Gooden comes over from San Jose State, and Bishop Turner played some snaps last year. Transfers from Boise State, Arkansas and Eastern Washington will fill out the two-deep and provide solid depth.

Special teams should be better, as kicker Joe McFadden is back after hitting 19-of-25 field goals with a long of 50 yards. A new punter comes in from Australia in Ewan Baulch.

Woods was a decent return specialist last season, averaging 26 yards per return while taking one to the house, and the coverage units were stout.

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Nevada Schedule Analysis

Nevada has a real chance to start this season strong, as each of the first five games is winnable.

The Pack hosts Western Kentucky in a game I think they can win to open the season, followed by a date with FCS national champion Montana State. While the Bobcats are an excellent team, they regularly play poorly against FBS competition and lost some key pieces in the trenches from last year's championship squad.

A trip to Middle Tennessee provides Nevada a winnable game and one it should have circled after completely blowing last year’s game in stunning fashion.

The Pack hosts Air Force in the conference opener, and while I like the Falcons to improve this season, the program has struggled over the last two years.

After the bye week, Nevada goes to UTEP in another game the Wolf Pack can win.

A trip to the Fargodome to take on North Dakota State is a fade spot I will look to bet against Nevada. San Jose State comes in after that in yet another winnable game before a midseason nonconference trip to UCLA.

Nevada hosts New Mexico in an excellent spot, as the Lobos will be on the second game of a back-to-back road trip and have UNLV on deck.

The next two games are winnable, with a road trip to Northern Illinois followed by hosting Hawaii late in the season with potentially freezing weather.

Nevada has been blown out three years in a row against UNLV, and I expect the Rebs to be favored by two touchdowns in this year’s meeting.

The Pack have a real chance to make some noise and will have 8-9 winnable games on the schedule. I only project them to be favored four times, but I think there are 3-4 other games in which they can pull off an upset.

I wouldn’t be stunned to see this team end up in a bowl game this season, and the program desperately needs that.

Spots to Play Nevada

  • vs. Western Kentucky
  • @ Middle Tennessee
  • vs. New Mexico
  • vs. Hawaii

Spots to Fade Nevada

  • @ North Dakota State
  • @ UCLA

Nevada Players to Watch

  • RB Herschel Turner
  • WR Jaceon Doss
  • EDGE Dylan Labarbera
  • LB EJ Smith
  • DB Joshua Scott

Pick: Nevada Over 4.5 Wins (Lean · +120)




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Northern Illinois Huskies

MW: +6000 · Win Total: 3.5

I fully expect a tough season for Northern Illinois.

The abrupt departure of former head coach Thomas Hammock stunned the program. The Huskies scrambled to hire Rob Harley, who took over in February after the recruiting wave had come and gone.

The move to the Mountain West complicates things further, as there's no familiarity with the slate of opponents. Plus, the physical nature of many teams will test a defense that returns zero starters from last year’s underwhelming group.

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Northern Illinois Offense

Jalen Macon was slated to compete for the quarterback job, and he still may do so, but the offense did receive a boost by signing Taron Dickens after spring ball.

Dickens dazzled weekly at the FCS level and was scheduled to transfer to UNC before pulling the plug weeks after arriving on campus. Dickens will deliver highlight plays and will lead scoring drives, making this group a sneaky “over” team early in the season, including Week 1 against Iowa.

Telly Johnson Jr. returns at running back and will likely be featured as the bellcow back while surrendering carries to Elijah Porter on occasion.

DeAree Rodgers led the Huskies in receiving last year, and he returns, along with Rickey Taylor Jr., George Dimopoulos and tight end Jason Fowler. There's not a ton of "wow" factor in this room, and elite playmaking ability and size are question marks.

The offensive line returns a pair of starters in Ross Liegel and Landon Hron at left tackle and center, respectively. Left guard and right tackle will be filled by unproven players from last season’s second platoon, while right guard Jacob Welch has been in the system for some time.

The offense couldn't register explosive plays last season and had very little passing game, averaging an eye-poppingly bad 99 yards per game through the air.

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Northern Illinois Defense

The defense is a full reset at all three levels, and I worry about the level of production we'll see.

Kole Sneed comes over to generate more pressure from the edge after spending last season at FCS St. Thomas. Three players from the D-II level come in to contend for the other three defensive line spots.

This is an undersized unit that will likely struggle badly when it comes to stopping the run.

The linebackers are young, as two freshmen are slated to start alongside Avery Jones, who played well in a reserve capacity last year at Lafayette before transferring to NIU for his senior season.

The rest of the bunch is undersized and unproven. While a diamond in the rough may exist, it won't be discovered until it's too late.

The secondary put up numbers that didn’t look too bad last year, allowing a 59% completion rate and 174 passing yards per game.

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However, the performance was aided by the style of play we see in the MAC after the calendar turns, as most of those teams deploy rush-heavy attacks that make the numbers look better than what the talent level would normally call for.

The top five defensive backs from last season are gone, and six non-FBS players were added, highlighted by Liam Lindo (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) and Malik Armstrong (Duquesne).

Safety Kyon Conyers was a productive player at LIU last season, and the cornerbacks have good size. However, the jury is still deliberating whether or not these guys can play at this level.

Special teams have been an eyesore at NIU for years, but punter Jake Ference returns after a mediocre season last year. Ryan Short comes in after hitting 15-of-16 field goals at Butler last season with a long of 45 yards.

Dev’ion Reynolds was an exquisite kickoff return weapon who ranked in the top 20 in kick return average and took one to the house last season.

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Northern Illinois Schedule Analysis

Northern Illinois' schedule is brutal; there's no way around it.

The Huskies play just five home games, draw the FCS national runner-up and have two road games at Power 4 opponents.

Defeating Iowa or Arizona on the road is unrealistic, and a trip to Georgia State should find NIU as a 4.5-point underdog or so (also a game you want to bet the over on).

Home games against Air Force and Hawaii will find NIU as a double-digit 'dogs, along with a road spot at Wyoming, which is sandwiched in there.

While the Huskies draw Air Force after their bye week and get the Flyboys in a horrific spot after facing Navy, I can't recall any time over the last 14 seasons where NIU has been tasked with defending the triple option.

This is not the way to ease into Mountain West play.

Back-to-back road games at UNLV and San Jose State will be taxing with a significant amount of travel, and once again, the Huskies will be heavy underdogs.

Catching Nevada at home is winnable, but at that point in the season, it could be too little, too late.

A road trip to the Fargodome marks a complete fade spot, but there's a chance NIU defeats UTEP in the season finale at home if the Huskies are motivated.

I have Northern Illinois as a double-digit underdog in eight games, and it could be a 'dog in 11 games overall. It also might not be favored by more than two points in any game this season.

I just don’t see where the wins are going to come from, and the travel and physical nature of the opponents on the schedule are going to wear on this team weekly.

If they're catching enough points, I could back the Huskies on the road at Arizona (would need +39 or better) and hosting Hawaii after the Bows come off a massive conference showdown with New Mexico.

Dickens gives this team a chance to be competitive against the spread, but straight-up wins will be far and few between.

Spots to Play Northern Illinois

  • @ Arizona (+39 or Better)
  • vs. Hawaii
  • vs. Air Force

Spots to Fade Northern Illinois

  • @ Georgia State
  • @ Wyoming
  • @ North Dakota State

Northern Illinois Players to Watch

  • QB Taron Dickens
  • RB Telly Johnson Jr.
  • WR DeAree Rogers
  • DL Kole Sneed

Pick: Northern Illinois Under 3.5 Wins (-125)



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UTEP Miners

MW: +8000 · Win Total: 3.5

UTEP is in one of the most difficult positions imaginable. Head coach Scotty Walden has done a great job recruiting talent to El Paso.

The issue for the Miners is that they can't keep players in the program long-term, and the result has been a plethora of talent transferring up to the Power 4 while the program continues to suffer through losing seasons.

With the move to the Mountain West comes additional challenges of preparing for unfamiliar opponents and a much tougher schedule.

I want to buy into the program getting better, but after four straight losing seasons and just one bowl appearance over the last 12, I need to see it happen with Miner Nation to really get excited.

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UTEP Offense

UTEP has been handcuffed by mediocre quarterback play for years, but the Miners are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with EJ Colson Jr., who transfers in after throwing for 2,142 yards with 16 touchdown passes in nine games at Incarnate Word.

I expect Colson to win the job after being in a battle with Raymond Moore III and Chad Warner. He should give UTEP its best quarterback play in years.

Tavorus Jones waited four years at Missouri for carries in the running back room that never materialized and returns to his hometown, where he will lead the charge in the backfield. Elijah McCoy and Lamar Sperling have great talent.

Ultimately, there's a lot of promise in this room.

Kam Thomas comes back after a season-ending injury sustained early in the season opener last year at Utah State, and UTEP must find creative ways to get Thomas the ball. He's an explosive player who can catch passes from the wide receiver position and take handoffs.

Wide receiver Carver Cheeks comes in from Northern Colorado, where he caught 71 passes for 929 yards last year. Jaylan Brown and Royal Capell are also viable options.

Cash Cheeks is an exquisite matchup problem for defenders with an athletic 6-foot-7 frame and should be able to line up both at the tight end position and flexed out wide.

The offensive line will be thrown to the wolves early in the season with early road tests at Oklahoma and Michigan. The task will be unlocking the right combinations with five redshirt freshmen and five transfers acquired via the portal.

These guys will look good getting off the bus, but the offense will only be as potent as the offensive line allows.

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UTEP Defense

UTEP ended up having a fairly feisty pass rush last season, but the talent has almost entirely left via the portal.

Ashton Coker remains and should start at the nose tackle position, while Elijah Fields and Sterling Miles transfer in and should start right away.

Additional FCS and JUCO transfers round out the two-deep, but quick-twitch defensive ends must provide pressure on opposing quarterbacks, or it could be a long year for this defense.

The linebacker group is actually in pretty good shape with Jayden Wilson returning at middle linebacker. Joining him will be Garrett Hawkins and Kode Lowe, who are being elevated from last year’s second team.

Isaiah Bogerty transfers in from Texas Southern, where he made 187 tackles over four seasons, and a pair of young, unproven players round out the two-deep.

The secondary returns Xavier Smith and Justin Content, while Esteban Guillory transfers in from FCS Western Illinois. TJ Tillman is an undersized cornerback and the biggest question in the starting secondary.

UTEP's special teams rarely win games for the Miners but have certainly cost this team a game or two over the years.

This year, FCS specialists are coming in at kicker and punter and should be an upgrade over the poor performances we saw last season.

A kick return specialist needs to emerge. The Miners had a very pedestrian return game last year, a problem they were constantly reminded of when opponents kicked off.

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UTEP Schedule Analysis

The schedule toughens up drastically this season with a move to the Mountain West. It's a more appropriate geographical fit for UTEP, which will reignite WAC rivalries of the past.

Road games against Oklahoma and Michigan are virtually unwinnable, and a nonconference home bout with Oregon State will be a great test for where this team is at. A 1-3 start is the most likely result.

Conference play gets started with a bang, as UTEP takes on rival New Mexico on the road. Back-to-back home games against Nevada and San Jose State are considered winnable, and they precede a road trip to North Dakota State, which will be tough.

Two more home games against Hawaii and Wyoming will find the Miners as touchdown underdogs.

To close it out, UTEP has two brutal cold-weather road games at Air Force and Northern Illinois.

The Miners are going to be three-score underdogs in five of their six road games this season and are likely once again staring at a 3-9 season.

Spots to Play UTEP

  • vs. Texas Southern
  • vs. Oregon State
  • vs. Wyoming

Spots to Fade UTEP

  • @ North Dakota State
  • @ Air Force
  • vs. Nevada

UTEP Players to Watch

  • QB EJ Colson Jr.
  • WR/RB Kam Thomas
  • WR Carver Cheeks
  • NT Ashton Coker
  • DL Elijah Fields
  • CB Justin Content
  • S Xavier Smith

Pick: Pass


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