Welcome back, Pac-12.
After the previous version of the Pac-12 imploded, leaving Oregon State and Washington State as the lone teams in the conference, we have a new eight-team league in 2026.
Five new teams come from the Mountain West (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State), along with one from the Sun Belt (Texas State).
This year's Pac-12 features a new wrinkle. The Pac-12 has implemented "flex" scheduling for the final week of the regular season, meaning every team in the league will play another member in a nonconference game that will not impact the conference standings.
Some sportsbooks are factoring that flex week into win total wagers, and others are resolving win totals based on an 11-game schedule.
I tend to bet overs at a shop that factors in all 12 games while betting unders at a book that only uses the first 11 games, omitting the flex matchup.
When betting Pac-12 win totals, remember to be mindful of the house rules and which regular-season games are being used to resolve the wager.
With that said, let's dive into our 2026 Pac-12 Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2026 Pac-12 Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Boise State | +170 |
| San Diego State | +370 |
| Texas State | +550 |
| Fresno State | +650 |
| Washington State | +800 |
| Utah State | +1100 |
| Oregon State | +3000 |
| Colorado State | +4000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday, July 28.
Pick to Win Pac-12: Boise State
Boise State has the most talent and few question marks overall.
A catalyst to this program finding success over the last 25 years has been its home-field dominance. This year, we should see another record of 5-1 or better at home.
Catching Texas State and San Diego State at home is huge, and if the Broncos can avenge last season's loss to Fresno State, they'll be in a great spot to secure their trip to the conference championship game.
Boise State will likely be -6.5 or so in the conference title game against anyone it faces.
Surprise Contender in Pac-12: Fresno State
I really like this Fresno State team heading into Year 2 under head coach Matt Entz.
The offensive system could only be partially installed last year due to personnel limitations, and Fresno State continued to show growth in both the offensive and defensive trenches.
The development of the tight end room continues, and Fresno State also boasts a loaded running back room.
Having a mobile quarterback in Maryland transfer Khristian Martin will also give this offense a more dynamic running game, which will help it be more potent and consistent.
I love the defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto and believe this defense should also take a step forward, looking much like the unit that closed out 2025.
Fresno State catches Boise State at home and then heads to San Diego State before the bye week. Passing one or both of those tests will be critical, as a road trip to Texas State looms late in the season.
I think we see seven or eight wins for the Bulldogs, and with how this group is priced, there's value in a conference future.
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Boise State has been entrenched in the Group of 6 as the premier team threatening the College Football Playoff.
Even in a down year in 2025, the Broncos snuck into the Mountain West Championship and ultimately won the conference for the third consecutive season.
Now, Boise takes on a new task in the Pac-12. But the Broncos still find themselves in a familiar spot as the conference favorite.
Boise State Offense
The offense is equipped with reliable pieces everywhere.
Seven starters return from last year, highlighted by quarterback Maddux Madsen. The senior signal-caller battled injury last season but came back for the conference title game.
Madsen has decent mobility and can scramble and make plays with his feet while making accurate throws on the move. I expect Madsen to throw for at least 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns this season, looking much like the 2024 QB who led Boise to the playoff.
The skill-position rooms have a lot to be excited about as well.
Running backs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines return after combining for 1,937 rushing yards with 19 rushing touchdowns last year.
Every back tasked with following the great Ashton Jeanty was bound to be compared to the program’s all-time leading rusher, an unfair consequence of having greatness within the walls of your program. While neither of these two is Jeanty, the production was there. Boise State averaged 4.5 yards per carry with 25 rushing scores.
Ben Ford, Cameron Bates and Qumonte Williams Jr. will likely round out the starting receiver group, while Matt Wagner will see more targets his way in 2026.
More consistent offensive line play — from a unit that returns three starters — will really help the Boise State offense look like it has in the past.
This offensive line may not look like it in the season opener against Oregon, but I expect this bunch to mold into the top unit in the Pac-12 this season.
There's also consistency with the offensive system, as Nate Potter returns as the offensive coordinator. Boise State has had seven OCs since 2019, so having the same coach running it back is a welcome change.
Boise State Defense
The defense has a chance to be really good in the Pac-12. The Broncos' stop unit has made hay creating unique blitz packages, sending pressure and registering drive-stopping Havoc at the right time.
Erik Chinander remains the defensive coordinator, entering his third year in Boise. A primary goal this season has to be getting the Havoc numbers to more closely resemble what we saw in 2024.
The defensive line will see Max Stege, David Latu and Mikaio Edward round out the starting platoon in the trenches. Reliable consistency lurks in the two-deep, and Jayden Virgin-Morgan is a force rushing off the edge.
Boen Phelps and Jake Ripp are back to anchor the linebacker position, while Logan Brantley transfers in from Kansas and will garner immediate playing time.
Boise State struggled badly when it came to surrendering explosive plays last season, ranking 106th nationally in my explosiveness surrendered metric.
Pass defense wasn't the issue, as the 2025 secondary allowed a completion rate of just 54% while snatching 14 interceptions.
All four starters from last year’s secondary depart, with Jaden Mickey and Sherrod Smith taking on a more prevalent role at cornerback.
Derek Ganter Jr. transfers in and will likely run with the first team at safety after playing three years at Eastern Washington, while Kyle Hall comes in via the JUCO route.
Roman Tillmon will be an excellent player after transferring from South Dakota. The Coyotes pride themselves on tough, physical, hard-nosed defense, so Tillmon’s skill set will translate to production here.
Special teams-wise, Boise State struggled at times with its kickoff and punt coverage units. Kicker Colton Boomer also hit just 11-of-15 field goals last season.
Boomer and starting punter Oscar Doyle return, and there's more consistency with the return and coverage units.
Boise State Schedule Analysis
Boise State opens the season at Oregon and, unlike recent prior meetings between these two foes, I don’t think the Broncos will compete very well in this matchup.
The next four games are “play-on” spots, as Boise hosts Memphis (Tigers' second trip out west), South Dakota and Utah State, the latter two sandwiching a road trip to Western Michigan.
There's a huge showdown on Oct. 10 when Boise travels to Fresno State, with the winner gaining the inside track to the conference championship game.
The second half of the schedule includes winnable road trips to Washington State and Colorado State with a home bout against Texas State sandwiched in.
Boise State will close out conference play with back-to-back home games against Oregon State and San Diego State before a regular-season finale against an opponent that's to be determined.
Boise State is a prime contender in the new Pac-12 in 2026 and a deserved +170 favorite.
I want to play Boise State while hosting Memphis and South Dakota, as well as the road trip to Western Michigan. I'll also seek to back the blue when Boise hosts Texas State on Halloween night.
Road trips to Oregon and Colorado State are ATS fade spots I'm eyeing.
Spots to Play Boise State
- vs. Memphis
- vs. South Dakota
- @ Western Michigan
- vs. Texas State
- vs. Oregon State
Spots to Fade Boise State
- @ Oregon
- @Colorado State
Boise State Key Players to Watch
- QB Maddux Madsen
- RB Dylan Riley
- TE Matt Wagner
- DB Roman Tillmon
- DB Sherrod Smith
Picks
- Boise State Over 7.5 Wins (Lean · Play at BetMGM or FanDuel, as Win Total is Based on 12 Games)
- Boise State to Win Pac-12 (+170)
San Diego State had an exceptional turnaround season after a disappointing 3-9 season in 2024. Sean Lewis constructed this team much differently than most of his previous ones, as the Aztecs won with stout defense and a ball-control style of offense.
Quarterback Jayden Denegal was such a bright spot despite being injured most of the season, and the defense allowed just 268 yards and 13 points per game during the regular season. That unit allowed more than 24 points just once before the bowl game.
San Diego State Offense
The offense will likely see an improvement this season with a fully healthy Denegal back under center.
The running back room features Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington, and Javion Kinnard adds depth after transferring from Colorado State.
Jacob Bostick, Jordan Napier and Donovan Brown all return, and backup QB Bert Emanuel Jr. is converting to receiver and should be an exceptional weapon with the ball in space.
The offensive line has great size, highlighted by left tackle Joseph Borjon, who comes in at 6-foot-8 and 338 pounds. Isaac Lucas transfers in from Ball State and should fit right in as well.
This is a strong O-line that's going to be able to pave the way for solid rushing numbers this season.
San Diego State Defense
The defense was such a bright spot last season, but there are major talent losses. The Aztecs also have to break in a new defensive coordinator in Demetrius Sumler, who has been here for 10 years coaching cornerbacks.
The edge rushers were such a force last season, but none of them return. Djibril Rahman (Rutgers) and Kai Wallin (Oregon State) transfer in, and Brady Nassar will anchor the weakside defensive end position.
Gavriel Lightfoot and Malachi Finau have decent size in the middle, but the trench play will take a small step back.
The linebacker group is anchored by Josiah Cox and Tano Letuli, who both contributed last season. Jalen Thomeson transfers in from Ohio and will be a versatile player in coverage and as a blitzer.
The secondary won't perform at the level it did last year, when it allowed a completion rate of just 53% while plucking 15 interceptions.
Three full-time FCS starters come in from Idaho State, Sacramento State and Portland State, and while this group could come together and end up a solid pass coverage unit, they're not elite as they were last year.
Special teams have been good at San Diego State for the last 10 years, but it's getting a new kicker and punter, and both are inexperienced.
The Aztecs do have a return weapon in Napier, though.
The coverage units have to be sharp because the Aztecs figure to score more points and will be kicking off more frequently in 2026.
San Diego State Schedule Analysis
I anticipate the offense will be firing on all cylinders in the opener against Portland State, and I'll seek to lay a number with the Aztecs in that spot.
A road trip to UCLA will likely find SDSU as a 10-point 'dog, but it will be a great test in terms of showing where both programs are at this season.
James Madison comes in off a cross-country road trip and will likely be tested in a major way before a huge showdown at Old Dominion. That's a spot to back the Aztecs.
A road trip to Toledo before the conference opener is likely a dead-nut fade spot.
The first couple of road games at Oregon State and Colorado State are winnable, and catching Texas State and Fresno State at home make those situations more favorable for San Diego State.
A huge revenge game hosting Washington State is one I have circled for San Diego State as a max-out effort spot to back the Aztecs.
After the bye week, Utah State comes in for another “play on” spot for SDSU, which will be fresh off a bye week playing its home finale.
However, I'll look to fade SDSU on the road at Boise State at the end of the season, along with potentially a road “flex” game that won't matter for conference standings.
I project 6.6 wins for San Diego State before the flex game at season’s end. If the Aztecs remain tough at home (6-0 SU and ATS last year), they'll be playing in Boise for a trip to the conference title game.
Aztec games are going to look a lot different this season, as the offense is going to be much stronger with a more potent passing element, while the defense won't be anywhere near as efficient or effective as it was in 2025.
Outside of the potential play/fade spots I outline, I'm going to look to bet San Diego State overs in its games this season.
Spots to Play San Diego State
- vs. Portland State
- vs. James Madison
- vs. Washington State
- vs. Utah State
Spots to Fade San Diego State
- @ Toledo
- @ Colorado State
- @ Boise State (and subsequent flex game)
San Diego State Key Players to Watch
- RB Lucky Sutton
- DL Gavriel Lightfoot
- WR Jordan Napier
- DB Josiah Cox
- QB Jayden Denegal
Pick: San Diego State Under 6.5 Wins (Lean)
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So close but yet so far away. That has been the theme during the G.J. Kinne era in San Marcos, as Texas State has been wildly entertaining while leading the Sun Belt in total offense and scoring over the last three seasons.
Kinne made good on his promise to put points on the scoreboard, but the defense has held this team back from reaching its full potential.
Last season saw Texas State lose its first five conference games, including blowing a 28-7 first-quarter lead, losing on a missed extra point, and getting blown out at home against the league’s best team.
The offense is fun, but if the Bobcats want more, their defense has to take the next step. Signing the best recruiting class in program history heading into 2026 should help the transition to the Pac-12.
Texas State Offense
Clearly, the offense is what stirs the drink in San Marcos. The Bobcats have built their identity around an explosive offense with a headliner at quarterback.
Signal-caller Brad Jackson is that dude. He's a player who could cement his legacy with every Texas State record imaginable if he chooses to stick around long enough to see it through.
Jackson threw for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns last season while adding 924 rushing yards before sacks and 17 rushing scores. His electrifying craftsmanship immediately makes Texas State a viable contender in the Pac-12.
Torrance Burgess Jr. and Taji Atkins are both smaller, shifty running backs who fit perfectly in an offensive system that seeks to spread out defenses using 10 and 11 personnel while forcing the defenses to operate out of a thin box.
Texas State actually ran the ball on 61% of its offensive snaps last year, so don’t overlook the ground game. Running the ball is such an important part of making the engine work.
Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. headline the receiver room, and Zechariah Sample is a nice addition coming over from Arizona State.
Texas State has three big tight ends who should be able to contribute both in the pass and run game. This is a fun bunch that should easily outpace last year’s receiving numbers.
The offensive line sees starting center Justin DeLeon and left tackle Sully Burns return, while William Boone comes over from UNC. The guards are inexperienced at the FBS level, but the offensive line as a whole has excellent size. If the unit gels together quickly, Texas State will have an offensive line that could be one of the best in the Pac-12 in 2026.
Texas State Defense
Kinne made some changes to the staff on the defensive side of the ball, hiring Will Windham as defensive coordinator while also replacing the defensive line and secondary coaches.
Tae Woody comes over from UL-Monroe, and DonTerry Russell has a chance to contribute along the defensive line right away after coming over from Mississippi State.
The Havoc numbers weren’t all that bad last year, but getting off the field on third down and limiting bonehead penalties that extend opponent drives must be a priority in fall camp.
The linebacker group welcomes Javante Mackey, Ayden Jones and Amarion Atwood back. This unit could be the strength of the defense in 2026.
The backers have good size, and Atwood is a versatile player who can play in coverage or rush the quarterback.
Ryan Nolan and Trez Moore are back in the secondary, but Texas State did lose five players on the back end during the offseason. The Bobs will rely on young, inexperienced players, which could expose them to big plays.
Texas State cut opposing explosives by a decent amount over the last two years, so there's hope for continued improvement.
Texas State Schedule Analysis
After opening the season at Texas, the Bobcats will have three very winnable home games against regional foes UTSA, North Texas and Incarnate Word before a long road trip out to California to take on San Diego State.
Texas State takes the bye week at a decent time following that road trip, and back-to-back home games against Colorado State and Utah State provide two more opportunities for wins.
Whether or not Texas State contends for the conference title this season will hinge on road performances at Boise State on Halloween and Oregon State before concluding the season by hosting Fresno State and Washington State.
The flex game at the end could be a major downer if Texas State isn't vying for the G6 playoff spot. That game is not considered a conference matchup, so the Pac-12 Championship will already be set, meaning a cold-weather destination wouldn’t be much fun for the Bobcats.
Texas State will continue piling up the points this season, and the offense is going to be fun to watch, as always.
The defense has some nice pieces to work with, but the Bobcats still figure to be in high-scoring affairs against San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State and others in conference play.
How the run defense holds up will be telling as to how far the Bobs can ascend this year, but I would consider Texas State a contender.
Spots to Play Texas State
- vs. North Texas
- vs. Utah State
Spots to Fade Texas State
- @ Boise State
- Flex Road Game (if Texas State isn't contending)
Texas State Key Players to Watch
- QB Brad Jackson
- WR Beau Sparks
- DL Tae Woody
- WR Chris Dawn Jr.
- DE Javante Mackey
Pick: Pass
Year 1 of the Matt Entz era at Fresno State is going to be a tough act to follow, as the Bulldogs are coming off a 9-4 season that included a 30-7 victory over Boise State on the Smurf Turf and an Arizona Bowl victory over Miami (OH).
There's plenty of buzz with the program, and the move to the Pac-12 sees Fresno State as a prime contender in the eight-team league with an offense and defense that could be even stronger this season.
Fresno State Offense
Entz and second-year offensive coordinator Josh Davis will work to install a power-run-heavy offensive system after fully moving away from a more finesse attack last year.
Khristian Martin transfers in from Maryland and is likely to win the starting quarterback job. His mobility will add a more dynamic element to the rushing attack and is sure to help Fresno State register more explosive plays, something it struggled with last season (90th in FBS).
The tight end room is full of strong, athletic players who will contribute as receivers and blockers. I look for continued operation out of 12 and 13 personnel sets with strong play-action numbers out of run sets.
Josiah Freeman, Ezekiel Avit and Jayon Farrar are the top returning receivers and should each increase their production from last season.
The backfield is loaded, with Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson returning and Tariq Thomas coming over after two productive seasons at Bucknell.
Paving the way for a successful ground attack will be an offensive line that returns three starters from last season and adds transfers from San Diego, Snow College and Iowa.
Entz spent a great deal of time at North Dakota State, where his offensive line play was superior year after year. Entz promoted a culture of strength, mental toughness and attitude that I think we'll see carry over this year.
Fresno State Defense
The Fresno State defense outperformed my expectations last season, allowing just 286 yards and 18.8 points per game, the best numbers here since 1978.
Nick Benedetto is a shining young star at defensive coordinator. I expect this group to be even stronger in 2026 with a half-dozen starters to build around.
Fresno State actually has some room to improve in registering defensive Havoc after notching just 25 sacks and 67 tackles for loss last year.
Jahzon Jacks, Merhauti Xepera and Dylan Hampsten will thrive off the edge, and Fresno State has a nice set of defensive tackles that can plug holes and stop the run.
A pair of experienced linebackers return, and Simeon Harris is a versatile player at the nickel position. He can step up against the run or drop back and cover receivers.
Fresno State’s secondary was elite last year, allowing a completion rate of just 53% with 18 passing touchdowns while registering 20 interceptions.
Ryan Wilson and Kiontre Harris are back, along with a pair who ran with the second unit last season. Benedetto is a great scheme and game plan coach, and Fresno State was the sixth-best team last year in preventing explosive plays.
Fresno's special teams were solid last season, as the Bulldogs allowed just 16.8 yards per kickoff return and a total of 24 punt return yards all season.
Kicker Manaki Watanabe transfers in from D-II Ashland University after hitting 21-of-22 field goals last year with a long of 59. Both punters used in each of the last two seasons also return. These are buttoned-up units.
Fresno State Schedule Analysis
Fresno State is absolutely a contender in the Pac-12 this season, and another nine-win season is certainly on the table here.
The nonconference portion of the schedule gives Fresno State three winnable opportunities, hosting Sacramento State and Rice, along with a road trip to San Jose State.
Conference play will test the Bulldogs early with a trip to face Washington State in Pullman before a showdown at home with Boise State on Oct. 10.
Immediately after that, Fresno will have another showdown with San Diego State on the road before the bye week. The Bulldogs must go 1-1 at worst in those games to have the inside track to the conference championship game.
The last four games are winnable, although a trip to face Texas State in San Marcos will be challenging.
Fresno State has an undetermined opponent at home in the flex game to conclude the season. This team is a strong contender in the Pac-12 and my surprise pick to reach the conference title game.
Spots to Play Fresno State
- vs. Rice
- vs. Sacramento State
- vs. Colorado State
Spots to Fade Fresno State
- @ Texas State
Fresno State Key Players to Watch
- QB Khristian Martin
- TE Jake Appleget
- DL Jahzon Jacks
- DB Simeon Harris
Pick: Fresno State Over 5.5 Wins (Play to 6.5) · Fresno State to Win Pac-12 (+700)
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Washington State has been a program in flux since the original Pac-12 dissolved after the 2023 season, but the Cougars have been able to keep it together over the last couple of years despite being on their fifth head coach in seven seasons.
Wazzu hired Kirby Moore after the abrupt departure of Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State this offseason. Moore has hit the ground running in an attempt to retain the roster and acquire additional talent via the portal.
Trent Bray was an excellent defensive coordinator hire, and offensive coordinator Matt Miller should be able to craft a dynamic offensive arsenal unlike what we saw from Wazzu last season.
Washington State Offense
Quarterback Caden Pinnick was a really nice pull in the portal for Washington State after transferring in from UC Davis, where he threw for 3,206 yards with 32 touchdowns in an incredible freshman season.
Pinnick earned Big Sky Freshman of the Year honors, and his dual-threat capabilities (475 rushing yards) will have a significant impact on the Washington State offense this year. He's definitely one to watch in the Pac-12 this season.
Kirby Vorhees is back at running back after leading the Cougs in rushing last season, and he and Maxwell Woods figure to receive the bulk of the carries in the backfield this year.
Moore and Miller both have experience tinkering with and unlocking combinations to successful rushing offenses, and I fully expect improvement on last year's 3.7 yards-per-carry average.
Five receivers transfer in to provide more explosiveness and playmaking ability on the outside, highlighted by Darrius Clemons (Oregon State), Tank Hawkins (Florida) and Daniel Blood (Missouri).
Jack Pedersen comes over at tight end after spending three years at UCLA, along with Beau Baker. Both will have an impact as receivers and blockers.
The offensive line has some nice pieces to work with as well. In fact, everyone but the right tackle has started games in the past.
Maximus McCree comes over after starting sporadically for rival Washington the last couple of seasons. The tackles have great size, but the interior is a hair undersized and depth isn't abundant, so keeping the line healthy will be critical for Wazzu.
Washington State Defense
Every player who contributed along the defensive line last season is gone, so the Cougars went to the portal to add nine transfers.
Matyus McLain, Jirah Leaupepetele and Paul Hutson III transfer in after contributing at their prior stops last year. Linus Zunk was a fun player at Vanderbilt, and he has the size and speed to be disruptive off the edge.
The linebacker group also saw three starters depart, but DJ Warner and Nylan Brown transferred in. Keith Brown will also bump up to the starting rotation after running with the second team last year.
The secondary will take a bit of time to gel completely, as four new starters are all coming from different places.
Khamari Terrell started his career at Oregon before playing at Texas State last season. Jalil Tucker comes in from Oregon State, and Jaylen Thomas was a starter at safety for San Jose State last year.
This back seven needs to gain confidence and cohesiveness quickly. While the first couple of games might look bad, this unit could end up being pretty decent with incremental improvement throughout the season.
Special teams-wise, Jack Stevens was a reliable kicker last year, hitting 16-of-19 field goals with a long of 49. Max Dean transfers in from New Mexico State to handle the punting duties.
Tony Freeman was a great punt returner last year, registering 415 punt return yards, placing him fifth nationally. This is an above-average special teams unit.
Washington State Schedule Analysis
I think Washington State could be OK this season relative to expectations.
Three Power 4 opponents on the nonconference schedule will put the Cougs up against the wall, as they'll be double-digit underdogs in all three games.
Wazzu finds itself in a play-on spot at home against FCS Duquesne, but the defense will be tested right away in league play when Fresno State comes to town.
Back-to-back road games at Utah State and Oregon State will be priced right around a pick'em but certainly provide winnable opportunities.
Washington State will host Boise State on its eighth consecutive week, while the Broncos will be fresh off a bye week. Then, the Cougars have to double back for San Diego State on the road prior to their bye week.
Hosting Colorado State should be another spot to back the Cougs before a road trip to Texas State. Washington State will host the finale against an opponent to be named later, but the spot would favor backing Wazzu in most situations.
I project 5.1 wins for Washington State before the flex opponent is announced, and I have the Cougars favored in four games with four other winnable opportunities.
I bet over 4.5 regular-season wins and would still support that, so long as you're playing it at a shop that factors in all 12 games. If Washington State pulls an upset on the road against SDSU or Texas State, the Cougs could contend for bowl eligibility.
Spots to Play Washington State
- vs. Duquesne (FCS)
- vs. Colorado State
Spots to Fade Washington State
- @ Kansas State (after Apple Cup)
- vs. Boise St
- @ Texas State
Washington State Key Players to Watch
- QB Caden Pinnick
- RB Kirby Vorhees
- DL Linus Zunk
- DB Khamari Terrell
Pick: Washington State Over 4.5 Wins
Utah State probably overperformed last season given what Bronco Mendenhall had to work with on the roster after quickly assembling a staff after Nate Dreiling’s departure.
The Aggies won their first three home games and had two really strong showings in SEC environments.
While the defense faded down the stretch, Utah State did reach bowl eligibility at 6-6, but the Aggies defeated only one team with a winning record last year.
The schedule stiffens this year, as eight bowl teams from 2025 are on the schedule. Utah State faces two Power 4 teams on the road, along with three of the top contenders in the rebranded Pac-12 this season.
Utah State has gone 2-10 on the road over the last couple of seasons, so contending for a conference championship this season is unlikely given the road slate.
Utah State Offense
The Aggies are replacing a two-year starter at quarterback, but McCae Hillstead returns to Logan after spending the last couple of seasons at BYU in a reserve capacity.
Utah State also brought in Grady Brosterhous from Virginia, but neither option has played a ton of football. It will take some time to develop the rhythm and consistency displayed by former QB Bryson Barnes.
Javen Jacobs and Sesi Vailahi will likely split the bulk of the carries at running back, but more is going to be asked out of this group after Barnes led the team in rushing and registered as many rushing attempts as any two players combined.
The receiver room loses nearly everyone who produced last season. Anthony Garcia, a converted quarterback, is the top returning receiver.
Transfers from Western Kentucky, Texas State and Virginia look to make an impact, but none of them were full-time starters. This group is going to come into the season quite inexperienced.
The offensive line allowed so much Havoc last season, giving up 42 sacks and 88 tackles for loss. That also doesn’t factor in all of the pressure Barnes faced that he evaded.
Three starters return, and the strength of the offensive line will be the interior. Left tackle John Randle Jr. is a hair undersized, and I worry about this group holding up in pass protection.
Utah State Defense
Utah State returns six starters from last season’s defense that really struggled against quality opponents. Utah State allowed 170 or more rushing yards eight times last year and graded 122nd nationally in explosive plays allowed.
The defensive line loses four players who played significant snaps last year but welcomes in transfers from Mississippi Valley State, Arkansas State, Baylor and Texas Tech.
If the transfers hit off the edge and the linebacker corps comes together, they could end up being OK.
The linebacker group is anchored by Chris Joe, and joining him are Harrison Taggart (Cal) and Jordan Pendleton (FCS St. Thomas).
Bronson Olevao Jr. is also back, and he can walk up on the line of scrimmage or play in coverage. Olevao is a guy the Aggies are going to need a lot out of this year.
The secondary returns Kye Stokes and Brevin Hamblin, and Chapman Lewis comes over from Texas Tech. If the secondary comes together quickly, it could end up being one of the better back ends in the Pac-12.
Special teams-wise, Utah State is breaking in a new kicker and will also look for a return specialist to emerge. Punter Landon Rehkow returns after posting a 42.9 YPP average with a long of 49.
Utah State Schedule Analysis
Utah State's schedule is really tough early on.
After hosting emerging FCS Idaho State, the Aggies hit the road for back-to-back games against Washington and Utah before doubling back to host Troy, one of the top contenders in the Sun Belt.
Conference play opens with a bang, as Utah State goes to Boise State before coming back and hosting Washington State, the team that embarrassed the Aggies in the bowl game last season.
Catching Colorado State and Fresno State at home make those scenarios more favorable, but road trips to Texas State and San Diego State won't be easy. The home finale will be played during the flex week with an undetermined opponent.
Utah State has gone 2-10 on the road over the last couple of seasons and will find itself as a 'dog in five or potentially all six road games this season.
The Aggies defeated just one opponent with a winning record last season, and with the changes in personnel and the lack of game-changing defensive talent, I think the road struggles continue. I expect Utah State to take a small step back this year.
I bet under 5.5 on the win total at DraftKings. I project just 4.74 wins and have Utah State favored in just three games overall.
Mendenhall is an excellent coach who can get the most out of his players, but this appears to be a rebuilding year.
Spots to Play Utah State
- vs. Colorado State
Spots to Fade Fresno State
- @ Utah (second of back-to-back road games against Power 4 teams)
- @ Boise State
- @ Texas State
- @ San Diego State
Utah State Key Players to Watch
- QB McCae Hillstead
- DB Brevin Hamblin
- LB Chris Joe
- LB Bronson Olevao Jr.
Pick: Utah State Under 5.5 Wins (DraftKings · 11 Games to Resolve)
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Oregon State found itself in a nearly impossible situation, as the dissolution of the Pac-12 eliminated all long-standing regional rivalries and forced the Beavers (and Washington State) into a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West.
After the termination of that agreement, Oregon State struggled to fill a full independent schedule, and the composite roster talent level dropped significantly.
It was too much for former head coach Trent Bray to withstand, and after an 0-7 start in 2025, he was shown the door. Oregon State hit rock bottom in a home loss to lowly Sam Houston (a game Oregon State led, 17-0) before the Beavers finished 2-10.
New head coach JaMarcus Shephard comes in to attempt to clean up the mess and get this proud program back on track.
Shephard assembled a decent coaching staff, with offensive coordinator Mitch Dahlen coming over with him from Alabama, where the two coached last season.
Former FIU head coach Mike MacIntyre was an excellent hire at defensive coordinator, and the talent cupboards aren't empty.
Oregon State Offense
Maalik Murphy returns at quarterback and will be pushed in fall camp by Braden Atkinson, who had a sensational freshman season at Mercer, throwing for over 3,600 yards and 34 touchdowns. Brady Jones also comes over from Western Michigan to add depth.
AJ Newberry transfers in at running back from Vanderbilt to split reps with Cornell Hatcher Jr.
A handful of receiver transfers also give this offense some pop that it was missing last season. DeCorion Temple has a big frame and will create mismatches in this league, and Xayvion Noland should catch a ton of passes out of the slot.
The offensive line has three starters returning from last season, and the Beavers welcome in three FCS starters from Bethune-Cookman, Eastern Illinois and Southeast Missouri State.
There's some talent here despite being a hair undersized. Oregon State should improve on its rushing output, which registered just 102 yards per game and a 3.06 yards-per-carry average against FBS competition last year.
Oregon State Defense
The defense could make some strides with the new staff and new schemes as the season progresses. Getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks has to be a focal point, as Oregon State registered just 15 sacks last season with six coming in one game.
There was just zero pass rush or threat to register drive-stopping negative plays with regularity, something that will have to change.
There's some good size on the defensive line with Jacob Schuster coming back. Joining him will be Daniel Matagi, who transfers in from Portland State. Takari Hickle is also a player OSU was really excited about coming out of the spring.
Dylan Layne is a nice linebacker pickup from Idaho, and edge rusher Logan Knapp is 6-foot-7 could really create problems at the line of scrimmage. Aiden Sullivan is also a reliable linebacker who should have a solid senior season.
The secondary has some holes to fill from last year’s unit that actually didn’t play too badly, all things considered.
Trey Glasper and Sean Craig are young players who could blossom into really good coverage guys, and Isaiah Houi was a multi-year starter at the FCS level. There's something to work with in the back end.
Oregon State's special teams were horrific last season, and those units directly cost the Beavers multiple wins.
OSU allowed over 1,200 combined kick return and punt return yards last season, and the field-goal operation was atrocious, hitting just 6-of-14 attempted field goals.
Punter AJ Winsor returns, and a new kicker should be more reliable. The coverage units have to improve drastically, though.
Oregon State Schedule Analysis
Oregon State has two brutal assignments early with a trip to Houston and a home bout with Texas Tech before welcoming in FCS Montana in Week 3. The Griz are a top-five FCS team with an elite quarterback, but that's a game Oregon State should win.
There's a sneaky road trip out to UTEP before conference play in what could amount to a tricky ATS fade spot. Opening up league play at Colorado State also won't be easy.
Back-to-back home games against San Diego State and Washington State will give Oregon State benchmark opportunities to assess where it's at, but if the Beavers aren’t winning games at that point in the season, it could end up getting really ugly down the stretch.
Road trips to Fresno State, Boise State and some undetermined spot in the flex week could be major spots to fade the Beavers.
Ultimately, this looks like a tough four-win (or so) season. I wouldn't expect Oregon State to be in bowl contention this time around.
Spots to Play Oregon State
- vs. Texas State
- vs. Montana (could be a short line)
- vs. Utah State
Spots to Fade Oregon State
- @ UTEP
- @ Boise State
- Flex game in finale if not playing for a bowl game
Oregon State Key Players to Watch
- QB Maalik Murphy
- WR DeCorion Temple
- LB Dylan Layne
- WR Xayvion Noland
Pick: Oregon State Over 3.5 Wins (Lean)
Colorado State is really at a crossroads with the program after failing on its last three head-coaching hires.
The Mike Bobo, Steve Addazio and Jay Norvell tenures were failures, and now Jim Mora looks to right the ship while navigating CSU through its inaugural season in the Pac-12.
Mora did a wonderful job resurrecting the program at UConn and worked quickly this offseason to assemble his staff and reconstruct the roster.
Retaining Tyson Summers to run the defense should pay off this year, and bringing over six other position coaches from UConn will help with the transition in week-to-week schematics.
Colorado State Offense
The offense is going to look quite different for Colorado State this season. I envision we see more use of the tight-end positions, as we saw Mora do with UConn.
Multiple tight-end sets should be used quite a bit, and the tight-end room has excellent size.
UConn transfer Juice Vereen is going to catch a ton of passes in this offense, and Pearce Spurlin III, Dominic Toy and Nader Chirchi have excellent size and will contribute in the run game.
Mel Brown and Durell Robinson will handle the bulk of the carries in the backfield, and I expect significant improvement on CSU's 108 rushing yards per game and 3.58 yards per carry marks from last season.
While the offensive line is a work in progress, there will be familiarity with the scheme. Several players from last year’s two-deep at UConn transfer in, and the tackles have excellent size.
With more tight ends available to create advantageous running sets, I expect the Rams' rushing totals to improve.
Hauss Hejny and Darius Curry will battle it out at quarterback. Both are mobile and have a skill set that should equip Colorado State nicely in 2026.
Mora also brought over K’Saan Farrar from UConn, and regardless of who wins the job, CSU should have more productive quarterback play.
The Rams' previous regimes failed in terms of developing quarterbacks despite having some talented players in the program. I expect a concerted effort from Mora and QB coach Matt Mitchell to change that.
Colorado State Defense
The defense had some glaring weaknesses last season, none more evident than a lack of effort down the stretch. Colorado State didn’t play very hard defensively after the season went sideways, and the sack/Havoc numbers suffered.
The Rams registered just 16 sacks and 46 tackles for loss last season. Stopping the run was optional in the second half of the regular season, as CSU ranked 130th in third-down defense.
Bringing in Stephon Wright, Cleto Chol, Robby Harrison and Brandon Kelley will certainly help improve many statistical categories, and retaining Gabe Jones at defensive end gives this unit the potential to register more Havoc.
The defensive line two-deep filled out nicely, so the front could end up being a strength this year.
Colorado State played 12 different linebackers last season due to injury, and the unit suffered as a result. Oumar Diomande was a force at UConn last season and should produce here as well, while Jaseim Mitchell has plenty of experience.
The secondary wasn’t all that bad given the lack of pressure. That unit should improve with the additions of Caleb Presley and Elijah Mc-Cantos.
Special teams has been solid for Colorado State for years, and while both kicking specialists depart, Kali Nguma transfers in from North Texas to handle the place-kicking duties.
Cavan Craig averaged 41.6 yards per punt last year with a long of 68 yards, and he arrives after playing last season at Wofford.
Colorado State Schedule Analysis
This is a clear reset year for Colorado State, but the pieces are there to start instilling the same core values that made Mora successful at UConn: physicality, toughness and winning at the line of scrimmage.
I expect immediate improvement in the trenches, which should make Colorado State’s offense more potent.
I project 3.89 wins during the 11-game stretch of known opponents, with the Rams being favored in three games this year. I wouldn’t be stunned to see 4-5 wins for this team in 2026.
Spots to Play Colorado State
- vs. BYU
- Flex game finale (if opponent's bowl eligibility isn't in question)
Spots to Fade Colorado State
- @ UTSA
- @ Texas State
- @ Fresno State
Colorado State Key Players to Watch
- RB Mel Brown
- TE Juice Vereen
- DL Stephon Wright
- DL Gabe Jones
- QB Hauss Hejny
Pick: Colorado State Over 3.5 Wins (Lean)
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