The Southern Jaguars take on the Grambling State Tigers in New Orleans on Saturday, Nov. 29. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on NBC.
Grambling State comes into the game as a -13.5 favorite and sits at -620 on the moneyline. Southern, meanwhile, comes in as a +13.5 underdog and is +400 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under stands at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Southern vs. Grambling State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
Southern vs Grambling State Prediction
- Southern vs. Grambling State Pick: Over 50.5 (Play to 52)
My Grambling State vs. Southern best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Southern vs Grambling State Odds
| Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -113 | 50.5 -113o / -113u | +400 |
| Grambling State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -113 | 50.5 -113o / -113u | -620 |
- Southern vs Grambling State Spread: Grambling State -13.5, Southern +13.5
- Southern vs Grambling State Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Southern vs Grambling State Moneyline: Grambling State -620, Southern +400
Southern vs Grambling State College Football Betting Preview
Southern Jaguars Betting Preview: Total Chaos
After a 1-6 start to the season, Southern dismissed head coach Terrence Graves.
The move may have come as a surprise to many since Graves didn’t even make it two years in Baton Rouge, and his first year featured an 8-5 finish, a SWAC title game appearance and a win over Grambling.
But it was a highly uncompetitive seven weeks to start the year.
Southern’s lone win came over Mississippi Valley State (which has gone 5-40 since the start of 2022) by less than a touchdown. The five FCS losses came by an average of 23.4 points per game, and Southern didn’t score more than 14 points in any of them.
The starting quarterback job teetered between Ashton Strother and Cam'Ron McCoy.
Strother is the primary starter, while McCoy got a pair of starts this year against NC Central and Jackson State (both losses). QBs on the Southern roster combine for eight touchdowns, six interceptions and roughly a 50% completion rate.
Running back Trey Holly leads the Jaguars with 757 rushing yards, and McCoy serves as a rotational dual-threat with 297 yards.
Holly missed Week 12 with an injury, and in his place, Barry Remo rushed for 117 of his 208 total season yards in the 35-30 loss to Texas Southern.
But the bottom line is this: The offense is a tough watch.
Its 17.7 points per game ranks 107th in the FCS and is really saved by the 34-29 win over MVSU, the 43-35 loss to Florida A&M and the 35-30 loss to Texas Southern.
Those three games could have added to Southern’s win total, but the defense is even worse than the offense.
All but two opponents (Prairie View A&M and MVSU) broke 30 points, and four broke 40. Even some of the FCS’ bottom offenses — like Arkansas-Pine Bluff — managed to find 40 points.
Edge rusher Ckelby Givens totals eight sacks on the season, more than the rest of the roster combined. He’s on his way to more all-conference honors when the season ends and is by far the best player on this Southern team.
The three primary cornerbacks — Elijah West, Zay Franks and Treylan James — all allow a 90-plus passer rating when targeted and don’t have a single interception among them.
It’s an impressively dreadful combination of offense and defense, leading to a 1-10 campaign.
Grambling State Tigers Betting Preview: Classic Crushers
Mickey Joseph has done a good job with Grambling in his second year as head coach.
The veteran college coach has strong ties to Louisiana. He spent 15 years between LSU, Louisiana Tech, Nicholls and two years at Grambling, and was part of the 2019 LSU championship season, coaching Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.
He also secured Grambling’s first winning season since 2019.
Joseph’s signature win of the 2025 season came in the Las Vegas HBCU Classic, where Grambling sprung an upset of Jackson State, 26-24, as a +21 underdog.
Defense leads the charge for the Tigers. It’s a top-40 unit against both the run and pass, with a ferocious pass rush and an opportunistic second level that ranks top-25 in takeaways (19).
Edge rusher Warren Robinson leads the SWAC with 10 sacks on just 23 QB pressures, while defensive tackle Isaac Washington adds five more on 21 pressures. Robinson, a 6-foot-4 transfer from East Texas A&M, presents an intriguing NFL prospect.
On offense, Grambling uses a stable of backs — Tre Bradford, Andre Crews and Byron Eaton Jr. — who split reps almost evenly for a combined 1,100 yards and five touchdowns.
The issue is that rushers frequently put the football on the ground; only two teams have coughed it up more times than Grambling (12).
Quarterback C’zavian Teasett leads the Tigers with four rushing touchdowns and adds nine through the air. Teasett spreads the ball fairly evenly across his receiving corps, but 6-foot-4 wideout Keith Jones Jr. leads the way with 38 targets and three scores.
Grambling’s offensive strength comes from its offensive line. Guard Darius Meeks is one of just four offensive linemen in the FCS not to allow a sack or QB pressure (min. 450 snaps).
The Tigers’ starting five allowed only six total sacks all season, and two of those came in a 70-0 loss to the No. 1 team in college football, Ohio State.
This is a defense-first team that often has to undo the damage caused by a turnover-prone offense. Since entering SWAC play, no team has scored 30 on Grambling, and three opponents have been held to 21 or fewer.
Southern vs Grambling State Pick, Betting Analysis
Southern leads the all-time series over Grambling, 41-34.
Since this rivalry became known as the Bayou Classic in 1974, Southern holds a slim 26-24 series edge after vacating the 2014 victory.
This matchup has become so prominent that both schools forfeit FCS Playoff eligibility to preserve its traditional Thanksgiving weekend slot.
The Caesars Superdome in New Orleans has hosted the Bayou Classic since 1975 (excluding 2005 for Hurricane Katrina and 2020 for COVID-19).
FanDuel opened this line at Grambling -13.5 with a total of 50.5 points. If you run the implied math, that projects roughly a 32-18.5 final.
Southern allowed UAPB — a team averaging just 19 points per game, including that result — to score 40, and it has held only one opponent under 35 in SWAC play (Prairie View A&M, in a game where Southern drained the second-half clock with 14- and 19-play drives).
Whether Holly plays for Southern or not feels almost irrelevant after what Remo did in his first start of the year.
Since Graves was dismissed, co-offensive coordinator and interim head coach Fred McNair has this offense operating far more efficiently. Before the staff change, Southern broke 14 points only once; since then, it has topped that number in every game.
I’m not sure this total fully accounts for that recent shift, especially considering Southern just put up 35 on a top-40 FCS defense in Texas Southern.
Meanwhile, Southern’s defense isn’t equipped to slow down anyone, not even Grambling’s sometimes sluggish scoring attack.
Both the spread and total seem to forecast Southern turning in its best defensive performance of the season and regressing offensively to its pre-interim form.
In a controlled indoor environment, I think we see points, and grabbing this number under a key total (52) adds value.
Pick: Over 50.5 (Play to 52)
