The Temple Owls take on the North Texas Mean Green in Denton, Texas, on Friday, Nov. 28. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
North Texas is favored by 19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1200. Temple, meanwhile, enters as a +19.5 underdog and is +750 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 65.5 total points.
Here’s my Temple vs. North Texas prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 28.
Temple vs North Texas Prediction
- Temple vs. North Texas Pick: North Texas -19.5
My North Texas vs. Temple best bet is on the Mean Green to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Temple vs North Texas Odds
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
- Temple vs North Texas Spread: North Texas -19.5, Temple +19.5
- Temple vs North Texas Over/Under: 65.5 Points
- Temple vs North Texas Moneyline: Temple +750, North Texas -1200
Temple vs North Texas College Football Betting Preview
Temple Owls Betting Preview: Major Struggles on Defense
Temple comes into this game looking to secure a .500 record and bowl eligibility. However, it's coming off three straight losses and gave up 37 or more points in two of those.
The Owls have struggled on defense this year, with six of their 11 opponents scoring 37 or more. This is unshocking when examining their underlying metrics.
To start, Temple ranks 101st in defense, per PFF. The Owls also come in at (deep breath): 95th in Success Rate allowed, 131st in Points Per Opportunity allowed and 110th in Havoc.
How could they possibly be so bad? Well, when it comes to stopping opposing offenses from moving the chains, the Owls are more of a suggestion than any real obstacle.
They rank 117th in standard down rate allowed and sit outside the top 100 in standard down Success Rate allowed, standard down PPA/Play allowed and standard down explosiveness allowed.
Drilling down even further, this is because they simply can't stop the run. Temple ranks in the bottom 10 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Rushing PPA/Play allowed.
Take a look at the rushing yards discrepancies from a few of their last games:
- Temple vs. Tulane: 20 vs. 175
- Temple vs. ECU: 82 vs. 358
- Temple vs. Army: 111 vs. 224 (obvious asterisk with the service academy)
This has been a rough year for this Temple defense, and I don't see it improving against North Texas.
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: Dominant Offense
On the other sideline are the North Texas Mean Green, who sit at 10-1 (6-1 American) and are possibly fighting for a College Football Playoff spot.
Make no mistake about it: North Texas is legit. And unfortunately for Temple, this team just lines up way too well against its weaknesses.
The engine moving this team? The offense, without a doubt. This unit ranks third in PFF overall offensive grade, and that grade has been earned.
This unit has scored 30 or more points in each game, while scoring 45 or more in six of their 11 contests. This squad ranks in the top three in both passing and rushing grade, the only team in the country to do so.
How do they do this? By staying ahead of the chains and playing well on standard downs. The Mean Green rank:
- 6th in standard down rate
- 5th in standard down Success Rate
- 2nd in standard down PPA/Play
- 17th in standard down explosiveness
They can do this because they run the ball well, which sets up the rest of their offense. They rank:
- 10th in Rushing Success Rate
- 10th in Rushing PPA/Play
- 24th in rushing explosiveness
Look for them to run the ball down Temple's throat at will, setting up the play action.
Temple vs North Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
There is no way to sugarcoat this: The Mean Green will run all over Temple this week.
While Temple does have a decent offense (32nd in PFF grade), I don't see it having the ball enough to make a difference. In fact, the one area North Texas has struggled in is third downs (124th in third-down hard stops). Well, Temple also struggles there, ranking 104th in third-down conversions.
This game is going to be a bloodbath. While the Owls are fighting for bowl eligibility, North Texas has a legitimate shot to make the playoff.
Not only do the Mean Green have a shot, but they'd also be a huge threat to be a disruptor with their offense. ESPN currently has them at a 54% chance to make it.
The only worry here for North Texas is that it's looking forward to the American Conference Championship. This does seem like a classic trap game with an extremely flawed opponent one week before championship weekend with a possible CFP berth to worry about.
The news of head coach Eric Morris leaving the program for Oklahoma State doesn't help.
Assuming the Mean Green's head is on straight, they should walk all over the Owls. I'll be taking North Texas a few different ways, but I love it to cover the spread.
Pick: North Texas -19.5
Temple vs North Texas Betting Trends
