College Football Odds, Picks for Tulsa vs. Ole Miss: Betting Guide for This Week 4 Clash
Via Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaxson Dart #2 of the Mississippi Rebels during the game against the Central Arkansas Bears at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 10, 2022 in Oxford, Mississippi.
- Ole Miss hosts Tulsa in a college football Week 4 clash.
- The Rebels are undefeated, including a 42-0 blanking of Georgia Tech.
- Cody Goggin breaks it all down and provides his view on the spread.
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss Odds
Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country that the market has not yet caught up to. Last weekend, Ole Miss was just a 17-point favorite against Georgia Tech — one of the worst teams in the Power Five — and Ole Miss dominated in a 42-0 win.
While it seems that Ole Miss has been upgraded a bit after that game, it’s still probably not enough.
Golden Hurricane Offense
Tulsa’s offense has been fun this year. The Golden Hurricane rank 61st in Offensive Success Rate, including a ranking of 36 through the air.
In three games, Tulsa has posted Offensive Success Rates in the 88th, 86th and 75th percentiles against Jacksonville State, Northern Illinois and Wyoming. Out of these teams, Wyoming has the highest-ranked defense by SP+ at 71st.
Davis Brin is averaging an absurd 0.47 EPA per pass this season, and Tulsa ranks first in the entire country in passing EPA per play.
If the Golden Hurricane somehow get into a shootout with Ole Miss, it will happen on the arm of Brin and this high-scoring passing attack.
Golden Hurricane Defense
Tulsa’s defense so far has not been anything to write home about.
Against three teams that are much less talented than Ole Miss, Tulsa has managed just the 113th-best Success Rate in the country on defense. It ranks 128th against the pass and 65th against the rush, which could be a good sign against an Ole Miss team that has struggled through the air so far.
However, Tulsa's quality of competition may have something to do with that.
Wyoming has the 113th-best offense in the country, per SP+, and yet the Cowboys had a 96th-percentile Offensive Success Rate against this Golden Hurricane defense.
Northern Illinois also had a 69th-percentile Offensive Success Rate output, and FCS opponent Jacksonville State still managed a 44th-percentile performance.
When you take into account the level of athletes that Ole Miss has on its offense compared to Tulsa's previous opponents, I don’t see how Tulsa will slow down this offense on Saturday.
The main question coming into this season focused on how the Rebels would replace quarterback Matt Corral.
While we have yet to see definitive proof against a tough opponent, it appears that Jaxson Dart has won this job and is running with it, as SP+ ranks the Rebels as the 13th-best offense in the country.
Ole Miss currently ranks 32nd in Offensive Success Rate, led by its 22nd-ranked rushing attack.
This potent ground attack has been led by Zach Evans. The transfer running back from TCU has 31 carries this season for 196 yards and is averaging 0.07 EPA per play.
Stopping Evans will be tough for this mediocre Tulsa defense.
Ole Miss’ defense has not been quite as strong as the offense so far. It ranks 57th in Defensive Success Rate, coming in at 14th and 99th respectively in Rushing and Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Even with some woes against the pass, SP+ ranks this as the 11th-best defense in FBS.
This Tulsa offense will be the most dangerous that the Rebels have faced thus far in 2022. Georgia Tech’s offense ranks 85th offense in SP+, and Troy comes in at 105th.
Tulsa’s rank of 69th is just slightly ahead of the Yellow Jackets'. Seeing as neither Georgia Tech nor Troy had a good offensive day against Ole Miss, the odds of Tulsa having one are only slightly shorter, but still slim.
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and Ole Miss match up statistically:
Tulsa Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Ole Miss Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||67||26|
|Seconds per Play||24.7 (35)||20.9 (7)|
|Rush Rate||45.7% (104)||64.1% (14)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick
Ole Miss won't dominate this game as thoroughly as the matchup against Georgia Tech last week. However, Tulsa’s defense isn’t the best that Ole Miss has faced this year and shouldn't give the Rebels any trouble unless Dart struggles with turnovers.
Offensively, Tulsa may put a few points on the board, but Ole Miss won’t have any issues scoring and will stay well ahead.
Most of the market has moved to 21.5 in this game, but you can still find some 21s out there if you shop around. I would take this up to 23.5.