The UC Davis Aggies take on the Mercer Bears in college football Week 0 on Saturday, Aug. 23. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
UC Davis is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -156. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Both of these two successful FCS programs are experiencing significant roster departures and will seek to replace key positions to make a repeat run at the FCS playoffs in 2025. This will be a great indicator of where both teams are heading into the 2025 campaign.
Here are my UC Davis vs Mercer predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 23.
UC Davis vs Mercer Prediction
- UC Davis vs. Mercer Pick: Mercer +3.5 or Better (Lean)
My Mercer vs. UC Davis best bet is a pass with a slight lean toward Mercer at anything over a field goal. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UC Davis vs Mercer State Odds
| UC Davis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -156 |
| Mercer Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
- UC Davis vs Mercer point spread: UC Davis -3.5 (-110), Mercer +3.5 (-110)
- UC Davis vs Mercer over/under: 52.5 (-110 / -110)
- UC Davis vs Mercer moneyline: UC Davis -156, Mercer +130
UC Davis vs Mercer Preview
UC Davis Aggies Betting Preview: Need New Guys to Step Up
UC Davis had its most successful season ever at the FCS level last season, which saw the Aggies advance to the second round of the FCS playoffs while quarterback Miles Hastings became the program's all-time leading passer in the process. Lan Larison exploded for 1465 rushing yards, 847 pass receiving yards and 25 total touchdowns.
But both players departed in the offseason, leaving major holes on the roster, but also major opportunities for the young guys to fill the void.
UC Davis turns to redshirt sophomore quarterback Caden Pinnick after a heated position battle that wasn’t settled until deep into fall camp. Pinnick brings a running element and unique athleticism to the position that will make life tough on opposing defenses.
Last year's backups return at running back and receiver, but the offensive line has rare continuity with experience returning at all five positions.
Defensively, UC Davis returns just two starters from last year's squad, including just two of their top 15 tacklers.
Each of the three levels of the defense is going through rebuilds, but the Aggies did a good job in the portal, strengthening the defensive line with the addition of All-Ivy League starters from Dartmouth and Harvard.
Nate Rutchena transfers in at Linebacker from Cal, and Josiah Allen figures to contribute after transferring in from UTEP.
Mercer Bears Betting Preview: A New Start Defensively
Mercer had one of the best defenses in FCS last season, as the Bears allowed just 72 rushing yards per game (first in FCS) at 2.4 yards per carry. They allowed just 20.1 points per game last season, 16th among all FCS defenses.
Unfortunately, the losses on that side of the ball are massive, including nine of the top 12 tacklers and three defensive backs who combined for 20 interceptions last season.
The production lost defensively is impossible to replace. Mercer's defense won't be as strong as last season.
Offensively, this run-heavy offense is looking to find an answer at quarterback after Whitt Newbauer transferred to Oklahoma in the spring. DJ Smith returns after spot-starting last season and will be backed up by UTEP transfer JP Pickles.
The most significant hole is at running back, as Dwayne McGee departed in the offseason after rushing for 1191 yards with eight touchdowns last year.
Autavius Ison was productive last year at Charleston Southern and figures to get a large share of the touches this season for the Bears, along with CJ Miller and Micah Bell.
The receiver room has some tangible producers back, and the offensive line is in decent shape, so the offense could be on par with the 2024 version.
UC Davis vs Mercer Pick, Betting Analysis
Mercer is going to attempt to establish the run, and I assume they are going to have success with UC Davis seeking to replace their entire defensive front seven.
The running element from Smith should also cause problems for this inexperienced Aggies front. The Bears have several capable ball carriers, and I expect fresh legs in the fourth quarter as they rotate players in.
There's no way to expect UC Davis to match their offensive punch from last season. The losses are massive.
Pinnick performed well in the spring game, but it is hard to imagine head coach Tim Plough taking the governor off of him and letting him rip it in Week 0.
I assume the play calling is conservative early on to get Pinnick comfortable and confident leading the charge.
I don't see any value in betting this game at the current numbers. However, I would lean toward the Bears at anything over a field goal.
I will wait and see where this line goes. Follow me in the award-winning Action Network App to see if I end up betting on this game.
Pick: Mercer +3.5 or Better (Lean)
