Ten MLB games are on the board today, and every one of them comes loaded with a Polymarket home run prop worth a real look.
Here's a quick-scan look at every home run prop we're tracking today, ranked from highest to lowest implied probability. Aaron Judge sits at the top of the board, but the real value further down the list is worth clicking into.
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY vs MIN | Aaron Judge HR: Yes | 24¢ | $298.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| PHI vs WSH | Kyle Schwarber HR: Yes | 23¢ | $315.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| BAL vs NYM | Pete Alonso HR: Yes | 22¢ | $334.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| LAD vs CIN | Teoscar Hernández HR: Yes | 21¢ | $354.61 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SD vs COL | Fernando Tatis Jr. HR: Yes | 21¢ | $348.40 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| KC vs HOU | Yordan Alvarez HR: Yes | 20¢ | $377.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| ATL vs CHC | Pete Crow-Armstrong HR: Yes | 18¢ | $429.50 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SF vs STL | Jordan Walker HR: Yes | 17¢ | $460.35 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| ATH vs TB | Yandy Díaz HR: Yes | 14¢ | $560.79 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| MIL vs PIT | Jackson Chourio HR: Yes | 14¢ | $578.32 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
We built out MLB home run predictions today for all ten matchups below, using real share prices pulled straight off the board.
Stick around for our full MLB predictions on every game, along with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to deposit $10 and get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Best Home Run Bets Today: Top 10 MLB Predictions for Tonight
From Kyle Schwarber's MLB-leading power surge to Fernando Tatis Jr. riding an eight-game Padres winning streak, today's best home run bets today menu has genuine storylines behind every price, not just names pulled off a roster.
Below is our full MLB predictions breakdown for every game on the board, worked out matchup by matchup and moving roughly in order from today's early games into the night's loaded second wave. Each pick includes the exact trade ticket we're using, share math included, so you can see exactly what we're backing and why.
Giants vs Cardinals
St. Louis (75-77) is playing out a lost season at home, but Jordan Walker is doing anything but mailing it in. He enters today with 28 home runs, an All-Star nod, and a Home Run Derby title from this summer, capping a genuine breakout year in St. Louis.
San Francisco right-hander Molina (3-1, 5.24 ERA) gets the ball for the Giants, who are 63-89 and have little left to play for beyond spoiling St. Louis's afternoon.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jordan Walker (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Jordan Walker Home Run | Yes | 17¢
Walker has been one of the best stories in baseball this year, going from a struggling sophomore to a 28-homer breakout who beat Kyle Schwarber for the Derby crown in front of a hostile Philadelphia crowd.
A 5.24 ERA from Molina isn't the kind of number that scares off a right-handed slugger who's swinging with this much confidence right now.
We're taking Walker at 17¢ tonight, a price that undersells just how live his bat has been.
Buying Yes at 17¢ with a $100 order fills at an average price of 17¢, working out to roughly 588 shares at a dollar each if the trade hits. The board lists the payout at $560.35, a touch below the pure share math, which is normal and just reflects order book depth and fees rather than an error.
- If Walker goes deep: the position pays out for a profit of $460.35 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At better than 5-to-1 on a hitter with this much recent thunder in his bat, the risk/reward here leans heavily in the trade's favor.
Yankees vs Twins
This is the exact matchup where Aaron Judge just ended a nearly four-month home run drought. He hit a three-run shot off Minnesota reliever A.J. Minter on Monday night in his sixth game back from a fractured rib that cost him three months on the injured list, his first homer since May 24.
New York (88-63) has already clinched a postseason spot, and left-hander Rodón (6-3, 2.94 ERA) starts for the Yankees against Minnesota righty Matthews (9-10, 4.98 ERA), who's been homer-prone all year.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Aaron Judge (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Aaron Judge Home Run | Yes | 24¢
Judge is still shaking off rust after his longest absence in years, going just 3-for-17 before Monday's blast.
But the swing that ended his drought came against this same Twins pitching staff, and Matthews has a considerably worse ERA than the man Judge just victimized.
We like the idea that Monday's homer was the first domino, not an isolated moment.
A $100 Yes order at Judge's 24¢ average price works out to roughly 417 shares at a dollar apiece. The board's listed payout is $398.50, again a modest gap from the pure share count that comes down to order book depth and fees, not an error worth chasing down.
- If Judge connects again: the trade nets a profit of $298.50 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is gone entirely.
This is the highest-priced pick on today's board, which makes sense given who's swinging the bat, and it still returns nearly 3-to-1 if he connects.
Dodgers vs Reds
Teoscar Hernández already went deep against Cincinnati on Monday, a two-run shot to left that extended a Dodgers lead, and Los Angeles (92-59) brings a lefty ace in Blake Snell (4-1, 1.91 ERA) into a series it's dominating.
Cincinnati (70-81) counters with lefty Abbott (6-11, 4.78 ERA), whose ERA has crept up all summer.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Teoscar Hernández (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Teoscar Hernández Home Run | Yes | 21¢
Hernández isn't just riding a hot streak, he delivered a walk-off double earlier this month and followed it up with Monday's home run against this exact Reds pitching staff.
Abbott's 4.78 ERA gives a right-handed slugger like Hernández plenty to work with.
Back-to-back productive nights against the same opponent is exactly the kind of signal worth trusting.
A $100 Yes order at Hernández's 21¢ average price buys roughly 476 shares at a dollar each on a winning resolution. The board lists $454.61 to win, a small gap from the raw share math that reflects fees and order book depth rather than a miscalculation.
- If he goes deep again: the profit comes out to $354.61 on the $100 stake.
- If not: the $100 is lost outright, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Better than 3.5-to-1 for a hitter who's currently squarely in this exact opposing bullpen's head.
Athletics vs Rays
Tampa Bay (91-59) has run away with the league's best record, and Yandy Díaz has quietly reached 20 home runs for the second straight season while hitting close to .300 all year.
Athletics lefty Basso (1-2, 3.86 ERA) starts opposite Rays righty Martinez, N (14-4, 2.92 ERA), whose strong ERA belies how loaded this Tampa Bay lineup has been behind him.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yandy Díaz (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Yandy Díaz Home Run | Yes | 14¢
Díaz isn't a prototypical slugger, his game is built more on contact and gap power than pure pull-side thunder, which is exactly why the market has him priced this low.
But 20-plus home runs in back-to-back seasons is real thunder, not a fluke, and he's doing it as part of the best offense in baseball.
This is a longer shot than most picks on tonight's board, and we're comfortable with that given the payout.
A $100 Yes order at Díaz's 14.39¢ average price buys roughly 695 shares at a dollar each if it hits. The board lists $660.79 to win, a gap from the pure share count that comes down to order book depth and fees rather than anything to reconcile.
- If Díaz connects: the profit lands at $560.79 on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
This is a lower-probability swing with a payout north of 5.5x, the kind of price that rewards patience on a hitter this consistent.
Brewers vs Pirates
Milwaukee (94-57) owns baseball's best record, and 22-year-old Jackson Chourio has quietly put together a real power season while playing behind Freddy Peralta and this dominant pitching staff.
Right-hander Henderson (10-3, 2.34 ERA) starts for Milwaukee against Pittsburgh's Jones (4-6, 4.10 ERA), whose ERA has been a soft spot all year for the Pirates.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jackson Chourio (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Jackson Chourio Home Run | Yes | 14¢
Chourio has been one of the more underrated power bats in the league this year, running well above a home run every six games at his peak stretch this summer.
A 4.10 ERA from Jones gives a right-handed hitter with this kind of bat speed real margin for error.
With the Brewers this deep into a franchise-best season, there's every incentive for their young core to keep swinging freely.
A $100 Yes order at Chourio's 14.02¢ average price fills for roughly 713 shares at a dollar each. The board's listed payout is $678.32, a modest gap from the raw math tied to order book depth and fees, not a miscalculation.
- If Chourio homers: the profit works out to $578.32 on the $100 stake.
- If not: the $100 is lost completely.
The best payout multiple on today's board, north of 6.7x, for a young slugger who's shown real thunder against pitching exactly like this.
Phillies vs Nationals
Kyle Schwarber leads all of MLB with 44 home runs this season, and Philadelphia (83-68) is clinging to postseason positioning as the calendar runs out.
Ace Zack Wheeler (12-5, 3.14 ERA) starts for the Phillies against Washington's Simpson (1-0, 6.75 ERA), a young left-hander who's been hit hard in limited big-league time.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Kyle Schwarber Home Run | Yes | 23¢
Schwarber is outright leading Major League Baseball in home runs right now, and he's chasing the rare distinction of topping both leagues outright in the same season.
A 6.75 ERA from a left-hander with almost no track record is about as favorable a matchup as this board offers.
We're making this our flagship trade of the night given the name, the number, and the opponent all lining up.
Buying Yes at Schwarber's 23¢ average price on a $100 order buys roughly 435 shares at a dollar each on a winning resolution. The board lists $415.56 to win, a small gap from the pure share math that reflects order book depth and fees rather than an error to chase down.
- If Schwarber goes deep: the trade profits $315.56 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Better than 3-to-1 on the sport's current home run leader against a pitcher with a 6.75 ERA is exactly the kind of spot we want to be leaning into tonight.
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Orioles vs Mets
Pete Alonso returns to Citi Field tonight as a visitor for the first time since leaving the Mets, sitting on the doorstep of his 300th career home run.
Baltimore's Bassitt (7-5, 4.88 ERA) starts against New York's Stock (1-3, 5.93 ERA), a matchup where neither starter has kept the ball in the park consistently this year.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Alonso (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run | Yes | 22¢
There's no bigger storyline in the sport tonight than Alonso stepping back into the building where he spent his entire career, chasing a milestone home run in front of the fans who watched him hit the first 299.
Stock's 5.93 ERA gives a proven right-handed slugger exactly the kind of look he wants.
Milestone games have a habit of producing exactly this kind of moment, and we like the emotional and statistical alignment here.
A $100 Yes order at Alonso's 22¢ average price buys roughly 455 shares at a dollar each on a winning resolution. The board lists $434.22 to win, a modest gap from the raw share math attributable to order book depth and fees.
- If Alonso connects: the profit comes to $334.22 on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full $100 is lost.
Better than 3.3-to-1 on a milestone-chasing slugger returning to his old ballpark is a compelling risk/reward tonight.
Braves vs Cubs
Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 42 home runs, just two behind Kyle Schwarber for the outright MLB lead, and he's doing it while chasing a rare 40-40 season for the Cubs.
Atlanta's Ritchie (1-2, 4.50 ERA) starts against Chicago's Shota Imanaga (10-10, 3.88 ERA), giving the Cubs a righty-on-righty matchup that's leaned in the home team's favor lately.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Crow-Armstrong (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run | Yes | 18¢
Crow-Armstrong has been one of the biggest breakout stars in baseball this season, pairing elite power with elite speed and defense in a legitimate NL MVP push.
A 4.50 ERA from Ritchie is soft enough to keep this matchup appealing even with Atlanta still fighting for playoff position.
Every homer down the stretch also tightens his race with Schwarber for the outright league lead, which only adds motivation.
A $100 Yes order at Crow-Armstrong's 18¢ average price fills for roughly 556 shares at a dollar each if it hits. The board lists $529.50 to win, a modest gap from the raw share math tied to order book depth and fees.
- If he goes deep: the trade nets a profit of $429.50 on the $100 stake.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Nearly 4.8-to-1 on a hitter this locked in, chasing a 40-40 season and a home run title in the same month, is a strong price.
Royals vs Astros
Yordan Alvarez is chasing the first Triple Crown in MLB since 2012, and his 38 home runs are already a career high for the Astros (76-75) as they push for the AL West.
Royals lefty Lynch IV (5-5, 3.52 ERA) starts against Houston's lineup, with Javier (2-5, 5.50 ERA) getting the ball for the Astros in what's shaped up as a tougher-than-usual matchup for the home team's slugger.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run | Yes | 20¢
Alvarez is in the middle of one of the great individual seasons in recent memory, leading the AL in average and RBIs while sitting near the top of the home run leaderboard.
Lynch IV's 3.52 ERA is the toughest assignment on tonight's board, which is exactly why this price sits a bit lower than Alvarez's talent alone would suggest.
Even against a solid lefty, a bat performing at a Triple Crown level deserves real respect here.
A $100 Yes order at Alvarez's 20¢ average price buys roughly 500 shares at a dollar each on a winning resolution. The board lists $477.10 to win, a small gap from the pure share math tied to order book depth and fees.
- If Alvarez connects: the profit lands at $377.10 on the $100 stake.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Just under 4.8-to-1 for the game's leading Triple Crown threat, even against a tougher lefty matchup, is a fair number to take a swing at.
Padres vs Rockies
San Diego (82-69) has won eight straight games and just clinched a fifth consecutive winning season, and Fernando Tatis Jr. homered in Monday's win over these same Rockies, his 22nd of the year.
Padres righty Ray (12-8, 3.57 ERA) faces Colorado's Adams, M (0-0, 3.38 ERA), a young arm still finding his footing against a Padres lineup that's been unstoppable lately.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Fernando Tatis Jr. (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run | Yes | 21¢
Tatis just went deep against this exact Rockies team a day ago, a 449-foot blast that helped extend San Diego's winning streak to eight.
Colorado has lost eight straight games and is on pace for one of the worst seasons in modern MLB history, which is about as favorable a pitching environment as exists on today's board.
Riding a hot bat against a team that's completely fallen apart is exactly the spot we want to be in.
A $100 Yes order at Tatis's 21.3¢ average price fills for roughly 469 shares at a dollar each if it hits. The board lists $448.40 to win, a modest gap from the raw share math tied to order book depth and fees rather than an error.
- If Tatis connects again: the profit works out to $348.40 on the $100 stake.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Better than 3.3-to-1 for a hitter who's already gone deep on this exact roster in the last 24 hours is a strong closing trade for the night.
There are plenty of other games and props live on Polymarket's board beyond the ten featured here, so it's worth scrolling the full slate if none of tonight's ten fit your read on the night.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today: What's Moving Tonight's Market
The two cheapest prices on tonight's board, Yandy Díaz and Jackson Chourio at 14¢ apiece, aren't underdogs because of bad form. They're priced that way because neither hitter carries the pure "must-watch slugger" name recognition of the guys at the top, even though both have real power numbers behind them.
At the other end, Aaron Judge's 24¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty after a three-month injury layoff, even with Monday's home run fresh in everyone's mind. The market hasn't fully bought back in yet.
Kyle Schwarber and Pete Crow-Armstrong's prices are also worth watching together, since every home run either hits tonight tightens their race for the outright MLB home run crown, a storyline that could start moving these two markets independently of the games themselves down the stretch.
For more on how these contracts are priced and settled, our full guide to prediction market apps breaks down the mechanics in more detail.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Home Runs
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MLB Predictions: Final Thoughts on Today's Home Run Slate
Tonight's board runs the gamut from milestone chases (Alonso) to Triple Crown math (Alvarez) to a straightforward return-from-injury bounce-back spot (Judge), which is exactly the kind of night that rewards picking your matchups carefully rather than just betting the biggest names.
Our full prediction markets hub has more coverage if you want to track how these MLB predictions play out alongside tonight's other markets.
Whichever trade you take, treat every one of these as a standalone, all-or-nothing position rather than a guaranteed outcome.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today FAQs
What is today's Polymarket promo code?
The current promo code is ACTION. New users who sign up with it unlock a $50 trading bonus on Polymarket.
What are the best home run bets today across the full MLB slate?
Our top picks tonight include Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso, and Fernando Tatis Jr., each backed by a specific matchup or storyline detailed above, alongside longer-shot value plays like Yandy Díaz and Jackson Chourio.
Which home run prop carries the highest implied probability tonight?
Aaron Judge's prop is priced highest at 24¢, implying a 24% chance he goes deep against Minnesota, just days after ending a nearly four-month home run drought against this same team.
Why is Pete Alonso's home run prop getting extra attention tonight?
Alonso returns to Citi Field for the first time as a visitor since leaving the Mets, sitting one home run away from the 300th of his career.
How do Polymarket home run contracts settle?
These are Yes/No event contracts. If the named player hits at least one home run in the game, Yes shares settle at $1 each. If he doesn't, the shares expire worthless and the stake is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
When do tonight's Polymarket markets resolve?
Each home run market resolves once that specific game reaches its final out, based on the official box score for that contest.
What's the longest shot on today's mlb predictions board?
Yandy Díaz and Jackson Chourio share the lowest price on the board at 14¢ apiece, the two biggest payout multiples of the night if either connects.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code to start trading?
Sign up on Polymarket, enter promo code ACTION during registration, and make a qualifying deposit to unlock the $50 trading bonus before placing your first home run trade.
