The Epsidoe 1 in the books, and Conner Leavitt sent packing, Dancing With the Stars Season 35 shifts to its second and final premiere-week elimination tonight, when the eight women take the ballroom floor for the first time. Prediction market traders on Kalshi have zeroed in on a runaway favorite in Giada De Laurentiis, with a shrinking field of long shots behind her heading into tonight's live show.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom — Season 35 Elimination Recap
Season 35's gender-split premiere claimed its first couple Tuesday night: Conner Leavitt and Adele Zaikman went home with a judges' score of 12 out of 30, even though it wasn't the low score of the evening. That distinction belonged to Guillermo Rodriguez and Witney Carson at 10/30, who survived thanks to the fan vote, while Harry Shum Jr. and Jenna Johnson topped the leaderboard with a 21/30. The night also saw a wrinkle that could matter again tonight: online voting was pulled mid-show after technical issues, leaving the result to text votes alone. Tonight's market covers a separate field entirely, the eight women haven't performed yet, and their fate rests on fresh dances and a new round of voting open only to their group.
DWTS Episode 2 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's elimination market prices each couple's "Yes" and "No" contracts between 1 cent and 99 cents, with that price doubling as the market's implied probability of elimination. A "Yes" contract pays out $1 if that couple goes home when Wednesday's results are read, and settles at zero otherwise. Since only the women are competing and voting tonight, their eight contracts should roughly sum to 100%, a self-contained read on who's at risk.
Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten
De Laurentiis is far and away the market's biggest name to watch, and not in a good way for her odds. She and Bersten take on a tango to "Venus" by Shocking Blue, a demanding style to debut with, and her price climbed nine points as traders grew more convinced she's the clear underdog tonight. As a celebrity chef with no dance background, she fits the profile of contestants who've struggled in technical opening routines in past seasons.
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik
Ali is a distant second choice to go home, dancing a jive to Amii Stewart's "Knock on Wood" with rookie pro Ravnik. Jive is one of the more physically demanding Latin styles for a first outing, and the five-point rise suggests traders are pricing in some risk that the routine's speed exposes her inexperience, even with a nostalgic hook for "Fresh Prince" fans.
Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills
Nader and Bills, the season's first same-gender pro pairing, are dancing a jive to Avril Lavigne's "Sk8er Boi." Her price ticked down slightly ahead of the show, a modest sign of growing confidence even as she sits in third among the elimination favorites. Reality audiences may recognize her from "Love Thy Nader," but that recognition hasn't been enough to pull her price down further.
Also in the Field
- Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong: Miller's foxtrot to Whitney Houston's "Exhale (Shoop Shoop)" hasn't moved the market either way, keeping her comfortably in the safe tier.
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas: The board's biggest mover by far, Higgins saw her elimination odds collapse as traders grew far more confident in her foxtrot to "Black Velvet." Her partner Ballas has publicly called the uneven premiere format nerve-wracking, but the price says the market isn't worried about her specifically.
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov: The Olympic gold medalist's cha-cha to Santana's "Smooth" is priced as one of the night's safest bets, unsurprising given her elite performance background.
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy: Dewan's prior dance training makes her a trader favorite to survive, and her tango to Blondie's "Call Me" only nudged her price up marginally.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa: Stiles rounds out the safe tier with a quickstep to Dolly Parton's "9 to 5," her price holding flat through the lead-up to the show.
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DWTS Episode 2 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Maura Higgins is the story of the board. A ten-point drop is a massive swing for a contract already priced in the single digits, and it signals traders have all but ruled her out as tonight's elimination, even amid pre-show nerves from her pro partner about the unusual head-to-head-by-gender format.
On the other side, Giada De Laurentiis and Tatyana Ali both climbed, and together with Sarah Jane Nader they account for the overwhelming majority of the field's implied elimination risk. This isn't a wide-open eight-way race: it's a clear favorite in De Laurentiis, a distant second in Ali, and six women priced as if the outcome is close to decided before a single dance happens.
That could change fast once the live show starts. Tonight's dances, the judges' first scores of the season, and how votes come in for a group of women with a wide range of performance backgrounds, from an Olympic champion to a celebrity chef, all have the potential to reshuffle this board before results are read at the end of the broadcast.
How to Trade DWTS Episode 2 on Kalshi
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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